ATL: We’re going to need all of our picks back, plus your pick this year, the Toronto pick, and the Chicago pick
SAS: Nope
End of discussion.
This is obviously unfalsifiable, but I don't think there's a ton of evidence to support that idea. It just seems like a cool thing to say, but Wemby's struggling to have positive ratings in a number of impact stats, which supports the idea that he's not being held back by the roster.
Wemby ranks #14 in the NBA (min 15 games played) in PIE, only 0.2 behind Kawhi Leonard and Jason Tatum. (Source: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/ad...ir=-1&sort=PIE)
This is just my opinion, but I'm gonna venture to say that the take that "The Spurs are bad because Wemby isn't good enough" is just flat out whack until such time you can identify some other measurable viable that shows otherwise.
Wemby is raw but the team is full of scrubs, mediocre fringe players
Wemby isn't making teammates shoot like trash with usually wide open shots
Starting January 4, when Jones became the starter and the team 'turned a corner' into being less crappy:
Here's the 3 point shooting surrounding Wemby
Vassell. 37%. He's actually a legit good NBA player
Jones 34%. Should be a backup
Sochan 29.3%
Champagnie 32%.
Bench:
Keldon 30.4%
Collins 7.7%. As in 07.7%. Legendary scrub
Branham 29.2%
Osman 41.4%. The one guy who is making shots
It's not just the bricks, it's how wide open they are and how crowded it is inside.
The roster is scrubville
Idk watching Vassell and Keldon chuck shots like they’re Kobe Bryant, I guess is fine to you people but replacing them with another chucker but actual star like Trae is “bad for the culture.” Lol.
I would have gladly traded for anyone yesterday to get rid of those inefficient losers.
There is enough smoke, so maybe. The spurs are probably (correctly) drawing a line at giving back the 2025 pick. Id be ok with with worst two of 2025 SAS/ATL/CHI though, and another more distant pick
-Trae: I want to to go to SA
- ATL: No, they don't want to give us everything they got
-Trae's agent: U sure U want a disgruntled star on your team? Watch the media tomrorow.
- Media the day after: Trae wants to leave, no way he's coming back. He only wants to go to SA.
- Agent: So...
-ATL: Hum, we do'nt know...
-Agent: Trae's the one on the court, you know, do you want to pay him an arm for 10 pts/2dime a game, then be forced to trade him one year later at a much lower price?
-Woj bomb: Trae to SA.
And I forgot WESLEY
Who is shooting 20% since January 4
We get it, you're anti-Young
Or, with two years left, they might Dame him by sending him somewhere else.
until the spurs trade for him
then he'll be explaining why it was a great move
Except that the Spurs hold literally the best asset they could get in a young trade
The "spurs are bad because they feature Wemby" view has got to be an all-time try-hard/smartest guy in the room take.
Last edited by vy65; 02-15-2024 at 06:01 PM.
I think the stark difference in team performance between the first 33 games (Tre off the bench -11.2 net rating) and the last 22 (Tre starting, -3.7 net rating) is due to Pop and the strength of schedule, but not the inep ude of the rest of the roster. The roster hasn't changed since Tre was put in the starting lineup, only Pop's lineups and rotations.
The average SRS for the first 33 games was 1.24, and for the last 22 games it was -0.84. Factoring that into the net ratings we get -10.0 for the first 33 games and -4.5 for the last 22. That narrows the gap some but it's still a big difference.
I should have looked at this earlier; adjusting for strength of schedule the Spurs played like 18-win team over the first 33 games and a 29-win team over the last 22. So I would use 29 wins as a baseline for next year's team if the roster doesn't change and Pop uses sane rotations. Maybe a bit more due to expected internal improvement.
(a) and (b) are not mutually exclusive, of course. Wemby will improve next year no matter what roster moves the Spurs make. There is even a reasonable case to be made that players (other than Wemby) on the current roster will improve in aggregate too. The only rotation players over the age of 24 are Collins and Osman.
Hey, it was a discussion, albeit a short one.
I’m not completely anti Trae, just anti emptying the Cupboard for him, throwing all the eggs in one basket. I’ve proposed before something like returning their 27 pick and the Charlotte pick, plus send the Chicago pick. That still leave both picks this year, if Toronto conveys, plus the ATL 25 and the ATL 26 swap. That’s more than Toronto sent us for Kawhi, although that eventually turned into 4 total FRPs by flipping DD, Thad, and Jak,plus the Keldon pick that came direct.
Something like those picks, plus Keldon, Devonte (if you can change his guarantee date, and give him a bit more you can send his whole salary out), and Malaki works.
Oh, and Hollinger IS a hater. In the trade machine, he has ATL wins as -9 and ours as -20.
Damn, I should have read down before responding to your first post. Totally agree.
I think comparing expected wins is the right approach to evaluating things.
The inep ude of the roster provides the maximum potential of the team, whereas the coaching decisions guide the efficiency towards reaching that potential. Like I said, the team is bad because it's a bad team. But if we look at the expected win% last season (.197) compared to the expected win % since Wemby entered the SL (39%), that gives us clear quantifiable evidence that Wemby is a variable that is making the team worse. I calculated +16 on expected wins comparing all of last year to the last 22 games. You've gone a step further with some SOS adjustment, which revises this downward slightly to +13 wins, but the point remains the same. Nothing points to Wemby making this team worse.
Yet he loved Jeff Errors! Uh huh!
I don't think people here understand that the main reason why ATL has a bad defense, is that they give up the majority of shots at the rim. You know who teams don't want to challenge at the rim? Victor Wembanyama. Clint Capela basically went from close to Rudy Gobert type rim protector numbers to Jokic's.
Out of 540 NBA players DeAndre Hunter is #503 in defensive rating. Dejounte Murray is 496 only 2 places ahead of Doug McBuckets. Malaki Branham is #492 and Cedi Osman is #487. Trae Young is #461. Zach Collins is #456. Clint Capela is #451. So the Hawks starters are the equivalent to the Spurs Collins/Osman/McDermott/Branham line up. No wonder they suck on defense.
In the last 3 years they were 2nd, 7th and are currently 9th (only 0.3 away from 7th) in offensive rating. If they had at least a middle of the pack type of defense they would be a serious playoff team with Young running point. And if the Spurs can replace Champagnie with a better 3-and-D SF, while shipping out Collins and playing a good rim protecting big off the bench, that would improve the defense tremendously and allow them to hide Young on defense. I've seen enough people here advocate for the Spurs to start Osman and he's not a better defender than Trae according to statistics.
Trae's contract is at 43 million next season. Do you know what we'll pay for Tre Jones, Zach Collins and Keldon Johnson by then? 45 million. Y'all kill me with these stupid takes.
The same people that say "Victor needs the ball in his hands" are the same complaining about the other players not passing it to him. What does that tell you? He does not initiate the offense. So you need a guy with the ball in his hands who sets him up. Victor is not the main ball handler on the perimeter. Aside from his occassional pull up 3, he needs to be set up. And the right guy for that is a ball handler with the ability to find him for lobs and draw multiple defenders. That's who Trae Young is. It's not rocket science.
Last edited by RC_Drunkford; 02-15-2024 at 06:25 PM.
Also everything the Spurs have done cap space wise indicates that they want to bring in a free agent.
Declining contracts for Keldon, Tre Jones and Vassell.
Low long term contracts for end of the bench pieces like Champagnie and Bassey.
If you want to utilize the cap space, you need to do it now, while Wemby is on a rookie contract. People here have been talking about that cap space for years while the Spurs have used it for teams to offload contracts and a Zach Collins extension. You got the chance to bring in an All-Star who fits the timeline, a position of need and actually wants to play here. He's not a 2-year rental exstatic . And Atlanta won't trade him to another team that likely views him as that and therefore doesn't want to give up the farm while the Spurs control the Hawks picks for the next 3 years. The guy clearly wants to play here and you can extend him. Do you have to pivot to create cap space once Wemby is due for an extension? Probably, but that's 2027.
The plan has to be to bring in an All-Star via trade while Wemby is on a rookie deal to start opening a championship window. Not only that, but until 2027 you'd still have draft picks coming in, even if you give ATL their picks back for Young. Maybe even 2 this offseason and you might still have the additional CHI pick in 25. So in the grand scheme of things, you want to add an All-Star while having some draft picks develop off the bench, where at least one of them can develop into a future All-Star. If you hit on one of these picks you then have a potential big 4 putting you over the top or at least making it possible for you to offload Tre Young while still having a big 3, once your cap space gets tight.
The scenario could easily be that the Spurs draft a Dillingham or Topic and by 2027 they could possibly replace Tre once his extension kicks in. The Spurs could then pivot with another trade for a player at a different position. They need to build a roster for a dominant run and it can't be done just by drafting. With the large amount of picks we got, it has to be a combination of both.
You got Wemby and Vassell. You trade for one star and you draft one out of let's say 4 picks. If you then are able to build a deep bench unit alongside of it, you're in for a huge le run.
I thought we were holding the cap space for Corey Maggette and Jermaine O'Neal tbh
That makes much more sense to me
This is the way...
i agree with most of this.
however, victor has been initiating the offense quite a bit lately. he's handling pick and rolls somewhat regularly. its not every time down, but its there
Yup, contrary to Miami who didn't have the assets. They tried, they really tried to please Dame's request and find a deal with Miami but that was just not possible... ATL won't find a better partner than SA, they're in another conference and they could symbolically get back all they gave for Murray and then some... If Trae really says he wants to come here, planets are perfectly aligned.
Last edited by JPB; 02-15-2024 at 07:31 PM.
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