82Games.com has put together a set of statistical defensive rankings for players:
http://www.82games.com/nichols1.htm
It's an interesting technique. The results for the Spurs (including positional rank which I added, based off the final DCS Rating) are:
Player Team Pos Box Def.
Rank +/-
barry,brent san SG 82 5.8
bonner,matt san PF 195 5.7
bowen,bruce san SF 197 -9.6
duncan,tim san C 30 -6.5
elson,francisco san C 134 0.3
finley,michael san SG 214 7.3
ginobili,manu san SG 16 -4.7
horry,robert san PF 11 -4
oberto,fabricio san C 288 3
parker,tony san PG 164 -1.2
udrih,beno san PG 285 5.2
vaughn,jacque san PG 273 -3.3
Player +/- Drtg Drtg DCS Positional Rank
Rank Rank Rating
barry,brent 314 102 36 60 21
bonner,matt 313 100 21 42 50
bowen,bruce 1 103 57 84 8
duncan,tim 13 94 2 100 1
elson,francisco 167 97 5 78 23
finley,michael 321 103 57 29 40
ginobili,manu 27 98 7 99 1
horry,robert 43 98 7 98 4
oberto,fabricio 268 100 21 33 46
parker,tony 109 102 36 77 9
udrih,beno 304 103 57 20 58
vaughn,jacque 64 102 36 66 17
The system says we have the best defensive C in the game, using TD as C. We also have the best defensive SG with Manu. Horry is the 4th best defensive PF in the game, Bruce is the 8th best defensive SF in the game, and Tony is 9th of the PGs. Beno is the worst defender on the team, both by overall score, and relative to his position... It also produces some interesting results, like Barry being a better defender than Finley.
It's also interesting to note, that we only have 4 players who are below average relative to the league (DCS rating < 50), Matt Bonner, Beno Udrih, Micheal Finley and Fabricio Oberto.
oberto's d came alive in the playoffs. hopefully he is more consistent during the regular season this year.
I am surprised that Manu placed so well. He is good but not GREAT. I think this rewards players for the team defense that might happen while they are on the court, which is not really fair.
I'm wondering how we did as a team then...
did it factor in dirtiness?
Maybe because Manu is an SG, he defends the team's SG. But that's not the case, since Bowen is the one defending Kobe, Allen, Carter, and A.I. who are all shooting guards.
Thats true. A lot of Manu's success in the stats is probably intended for Bowen. Manu tends to guard the guy that Bowen doesn't. So if Manu is guarding an inferior player but getting credit for guarding Kobe Bryant well then hes getting undue props. That probably also indicates why Bowen is only 9th.
As has been noted before, these ranking are an interesting piece of data, but they don't normalize for the quality of the opposition.
Bruce always plays against the toughest opposing scorer, so this type of rating will actually underestimate his effect.
I'm not discounting the number entirely, just saying tthat there are always secondary and tertiary effects that you have to factor.
And no way is Manu the best defensive SG in the league.
Just for curiosity, who do you think is better? There's not a lot of great defenders at the SG spot (assuming Bruce is an SF). Raja Bell? Deshawn Stevenson?
Brent Barry is listed first and that's all whottt REALLY cares about on that list....or maybe nottt.
I would argue that defensively, Manu is EASILY one of the top 3 SGs in the league.
Kobe Bryant is probably #1 (both offensively and defensively). I could easily put Manu #2...perhaps Richard Hamilton would edge him out and he'd slip to #3.
No, it's that Barry is rated as better defensively than Finley, is what will make whottt cream his jeans... And then go into a rant about Finley being a choker, and how Barry is hated by Pop...
Fair question. Bell definitely. Trenton Hassell. Kobe is overrated these days but is still a better defender, especially when he wants to be. I guess Udoka is considered a forward, but defensively he's really a 2.
Stevenson is hard to tell, because anyone who plays a little bit a defense on the Wiz looks like a star compared to the rest of the team (the Larry Hughes Effect).
Hughes when healthy is similar to Manu in that he'd rather play the passing lanes than play his man straight up.
Not necessary, sometimes is Lebron James, sometimes Nowitzki
The real thing here is what underrated is the Defense
Look this numbers:
The League´s MVP DSC Rating is 64
The League´s 2005 and 2006 MVP DSC Rating is 14 ˇˇˇˇˇˇ
The League DPY is 86
The multiple DPY Ben Wallace is 85
And Tim Duncan the best in that List never won the DPY
I can accept that Nash or Dirk can be the MVP, but Wallace or Camby over TD in Defense is a Joke
Probably TD scores too much for that award
That 82Games stat is tough to judge because it doesn't really give you much of the equation. It breaks it into three sections: Stats, Def. +/-, and Defensive Ratings.
For stats, the guy says he used steals, blocks and fouls (less fouls being better). Right there, you already have a problem. It goes back to the old myth that getting steals and/or blocks means you are a good defender. You can be a horrible defender and get a lot of steals, just like you can get a lot of blocks and be a horrible defender.
In fact, I think almost all players who get a lot of steals are sub par defenders. To average a good amount of steals, you have to play the passing lanes and take a lot of chances. Those two things mean that you are out of position defensively. Some players, like Gary Payton in his prime, would generate most of his steals in one-on-one situations, which in that case steals can be used as a plus instead of a negative.
And as for blocks, it's pretty much the same. Someone like Andrei Kirilenko blocks a lot of shots but he's an overrated defender (even according to Sloan). Camby blocks shots but I don't think he's that good of a defender. He rarely guarded Duncan in the series and in late game situations, he let Horry get wide open.
Looking at how using steals, blocks and fouls turned out, it's pretty laughable actually. Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion were first and second. I don't think anyone would confuse Wade for being the best defender in the league.
Now if you look at the Def. +/- stat that was used as part of the equation, that one was much better. What that stat calculates is the difference in what the opponent scores when a player is on the court compared to when a player is off the court. In that stat, Bowen ranked first in the league.
Per 100 possessions, teams averaged 97 points against the Spurs with Bowen on the court. With Bowen off the court, teams averaged 107 points. That's doubly as impressive since when Bowen is off the court, that usually means the other team's best player is off the court. That shows you how vital Bowen is to the Spurs' defense. It also shows that if Bowen has lost a step, he's still one of the top two or three defenders in the league.
The bad part about using Def. +/- is that you can get some funky numbers for guys who don't play many minutes or guys who play behind horrible defenders. For example in 2005-06, Jackie Butler led the league in this stat. Playing limited minutes behind Eddy Curry (probably the worst defender in the league), made him look like David Robinson when he'd go out there and actually try defensively.
The third thing this 82Games stat used was the mystery meat that is "Defensive Rankings" invented by Dean Oliver. It doesn't say how this stat is calculated ... but it's safe to say the inventor needs to throw it away. Whatever equation it used, it calculated Bowen as the worst defender on the Spurs. It also calculated Tyrus Thomas as the best defender in the NBA ... when Thomas isn't even a top three defender on his own team in real life.
Overall, it was a decent attempt but it had a huge amount of holes. Not much I can take away from it, actually.
I really think the only way you can truly judge defense is sitting down and watching games. Numbers won't and can't do that job for you.
As far as Manu, he's a very good team defender. He's great at coming over and helping. He knows exactly where and when the help should come. He's gotten better and better at his team defense and is probably a top ten to fifteen help defender in the league.
That said, he's a poor to below average one-on-one defender. Luckily he doesn't have to guard a lot of isolation plays because he's paired with Bowen, but when he does the outcome usually isn't good for the Spurs.
And as noted earlier, Manu doesn't guard too many shooting guards in the league, so a lot of defensive stats will be skewed in regards to the Spurs. Bowen defends anything from point guards to power forwards (but mostly shooting guards), so it's tough to keep tabs on him with stats.
Luckily, where Manu falls short as a one-on-one defender, the Spurs can often not only cover that with Bowen but also now Parker has upped his one-on-one defensive abilities to where he can be a very good one-on-one defender at times. For example against the Nuggets, Bowen would guard Carmelo, Parker would guard AI, while Manu guarded whoever else was playing a swingman position whether it be a point guard (Steve Blake) or a small forward (Linas Kleiza).
While Parker has upped his one-on-one defensive abilities, he's still a sub par to average team defender. He was a better team defender in the playoffs but during the regular season, sometimes Parker just doesn't play team defense at all.
All in all, the Spurs' defensive strengths and shortcomings fit together pretty well. Where a couple players are weak, other players can help make up for it. And when it's all clicking, the Spurs are by far the best defensive team in the league.
Excellent breakdown timvp
According to this stat, Elson is a much better defender than Oberto. Discuss.
I don't think anyone would confuse Wade for being the best defender in the league.
Except maybe Tony.. lol... (think back to the multiple swats in a row... )
DCS Rating
Elson 78
Bonner 42
Oberto 33
Rasho 93
You're horse . I keep hearing from you over and over again how Manu is such a poor one-on-one defender, but you never show any examples of it. He had a rough game 1 and game 5 vs the Nuggets, but outside of those two games, I can't remember any where his guy ever scored more than a bucket or two on him. Manu either forces his guy to take a jumper or forces him to drive to his weak hand. I don't know what else you would want from a defender. Bowen does the same (albeit against tougher compe ion usually, and you praise him for it.)
I absolutely knew when the 82games rankings came out you would bash the formula because they ranked Manu so high. You're so predictable. If you think Tony is a better one-on-one defender than Manu, you're insane.
First, put down your teddy bear you dressed up in a Manu jersey. Secondly, take your thumb out of your mouth.
Do you seriously want to compare Manu and Parker's one-on-one defense in last year's playoffs? Seriously?
Let's take a gander, shall we.
In the playoffs, Manu was matched up most with Steve Blake versus Denver, Raja Bell versus Phoenix, Andrei Kirilenko versus Utah and Sasha Pavlovic versus Cleveland.
Steve Blake
In the regular season, he averaged 6.4 points on 41.1% shooting. In the playoffs against the Spurs, he averaged 7.2 points on 45.2% shooting.
Raja Bell
In the first round, Bell averaged 7.4 points on 39.3% shooting from the field against the Lakers. In the second round against the Spurs, he averaged 12.5 points on 50% shooting (also 50% shooting on three-pointers).
Andrei Kirilenko
Against Houston in the playoffs, Kirilenko averaged 5.3 points, compared to 9.2 points against the Spurs.
Sasha Pavlovic
Against Detroit in the playoffs, Pavlovic averaged 9.2 points, compared to 9.8 points against the Spurs.
Do you not see a pattern here? Are you really that dumb?
In the playoffs, Parker was matched up most with Allen Iverson versus Denver, Leandro Barbosa versus Phoenix, Derek Fisher versus Utah and whoever started at point guard versus Cleveland.
Allen Iverson
In the regular season, he averaged 26.3 points on 44.2% shooting. In the playoffs against the Spurs, he averaged 22.8 points on 36.8% shooting.
Leandro Barbosa
In the first round, Barbosa averaged 21.2 points on 45.1% shooting from the field against the Lakers. In the second round against the Spurs, he averaged 11.3 points on 35.5% shooting (also 11.8% shooting on three-pointers).
Derek Fisher
Against the Spurs, Fisher averaged 6.2 points on 25% shooting, including 12.5% shooting on threes. Against Houston, he averaged 9.4 points on 42.6% shooting. Against Golden State, averaged 13.8 points on 53.6% shooting, including 63.6% on threes.
Point Guards
Adding together the two games Larry Hughes started and the two games Daniel Gibson started, they combined to shoot 6-for-30 from the field (20%) on 3.5 points per game in 31 minutes per game.
Look at this, take off your Manu diaper and explain to me how Manu is the better one-on-one defender. As I said, Manu >>>>>>>> Parker in terms of a team defender. But when you are looking at straight matchups, it's no contest.
Well, for everyone other than the world's biggest Manu homer.
And further, what part of my breakdown of how the stat was conceived did you disagree with? And why would I go out and try to disprove a stat that ranks three Spurs in the top five, including Duncan as the best?
Not all of us revolve every thought on the Spurs around Manu.
Damn, you didn't have to smack him that hard...
huh?
I think that, just like in baseball, the methodology for coming up with defensive stats in basketball are way behind the methodology for the offensive stats. Instead of ting all over 82games' formula I think you should commend them for actually trying to come up with something. At least they're putting forth an effort.
Can a stat or formula for a stat be improved? Of course it can. But these things take time and trial and error. I think the fact that they've come up with something where so many Spurs rank high is a point in favor of the stat, not something to frown on. We were the best defensive team after all. I don't understand what prompted you to be such a harsh critic of the system in the first place. What was the impetus of it if not to bash Manu?
You say I start arguments on here and I'm antagonistic, but face it, this is an example where you could have easily left well enough alone and you chose to stick your nose in, knowing full well what the response would be. Anytime somebody finds a stat saying Manu's good at whatever, you're the one who chimes in with the "yes, but...."
I think there's a flaw in your argument for the playoffs because all you're going by is the averages of the players and not accounting at all for how/when they got their points. Manu plays 28-32 mins a night. Are you telling me Raja and Blake and Kirilenko got all their points vs him and not against Fin or Brent or whoever? Gimme a break.
Also, there's transition points to think about too. Do those count against Manu's one-on-one defense? I think not.
What I wrote was that outside of Games 1 and 5 against Denver, I think Ginobili played pretty damn good half court defense in the playoffs. You watch the tapes and see for yourself.
As for the Manu/Tony argument, I'm just going by history. Manu's been regarded as one of the best defenders at his position pretty much since he came into the league. Tony has mostly had a reputation of being a mediocre, disinterested defender.
Has Tony improved? Absolutely, no question. But I don't think his improvement has overshot Manu's level just yet. The numbers don't bear that out anyway. Remember, even if Bruce guards the best perimeter player, the guys Manu winds up guarding on most nights aren't exactly stiffs. The average NBA starting SF/SG is still a better scorer than the average NBA PG and Manu still does the job against his guy, despite often being at a height/size disadvantage.
Furthermore, I think the man defense/team defense split of yours is pretty absurd. All the Spurs play is team defense. That's all that matters. Bruce's job is to contest shots and funnel his guy just the same as it's Manu's job or Tony's job or Brent's job. The name of the game is still no open 3s and no easy lay-ups. The reason Manu gets more credit than Tony is because he's more of a defensive playmaker. He gets more steals, more blocks and draws more charges. He gets the Spurs points off his defense, not just stops. He gambles a bit, but it pays off more often than not. Don't forget, he gets more rebounds too, and a possession doesn't end until the defensive rebound.
Anyway, like I said, you'd have more credibility in this argument if you hadn't already bashed Manu's defense all year. When you make asinine comments like LeBron James and Mike Finley (MIKE FINLEY FOR CRYING OUT LOUD) are better defenders than Manu, I don't understand how anyone can take you seriously.
So they whip something up and we should all just go with it because they put in the effort? That makes no sense.
When I went into breaking down the formula, I went in with an open mind. But as I looked at what exactly the formula consisted of, I realized it has plenty of holes.
Again, what part of my analysis did you disagree with? Do you think that steals, blocks and fouls is a fair way to measure whether someone is a good defender? Do you not agree with the limitations of the Def. +/-? Do you not want to know what goes into "Defensive Rankings" that somehow made Bowen the worst defender on the team?
I don't see what you are arguing with me about other than you got mad when I didn't just blindly praise the formula and by extension Manu.
It also graded Horry high and I've been one of the biggest Horry backers on the forum while you have been one of the biggest Horry haters. If you think I spent time trying to pick fights with aaronstampler, don't you think I could have just ran with that fact?
The truth is nothing prompted me to become a harsh critic other than breaking down the formula. And again, what part of my analysis do you disagree with?
First of all, I'm not a homer. Even if a formula showed the top five defenders in the league were all on the Spurs, I'm still going to look into it. I chose to stick my nose in because I was curious. After I saw the holes in the formula, I reported my findings.
And that's BS that I try to take shots at Manu. I've been supporting Manu before you even knew who he was. And this past season, I was the person going on a tirade because I thought Manu got hosed in the Sixth Man of the Year voting. Barbosa over him was a joke and I was one of the few Spurs fans trying to fight that fight. As a matter of fact, you were nowhere to be found.
And this stat isn't even about Manu. It lists Tim Duncan as the best player in the league. You think I'd shoot down glory for Duncan just to get at Manu?
The players Parker's were going up against scored when they were being guarded by other and they scored in transition. It all breaks pretty close to even.
You really think it's a coincidence that almost every player had their best series against Manu and their worst series against Parker? And again, Manu makes up for his shortcomings in one-on-one situations in the team defense aspect.
He got better as the playoffs went along but he was poor against Denver and poor for the first half of the series against Phoenix.
So you are going with the media's view of the players? The same media that voted Marcus Camby as the best defender in the league?
And if you go back a little further, once upon a time the Spurs almost traded their rights to Ginobili because they said his defense was too horrible. He worked to get better defensive and has improved greatly since around the time the Spurs drafted him.
You can parrot what the media says. I'll stick to watching the games.
Players play well against Manu and poorly against Parker and the numbers don't bear that out? Huh?
Manu usually defends whoever is the weakest offensive player at the point guard, shooting guard and small forward position. There are times that isn't the case due to a size mismatch, but that's generally the case.
And no, the player Ginobili guards on a nightly basis isn't as good as the player Parker guards on a nightly basis. Rare is the team who has two offensive weapons at both small forward and shooting guard.
I think we might have found your problem if you can't tell the difference between individual and team defense in the Spurs system. Those are two things are entirely different.
For example, Nazr Mohammed was a very good individual defender. He was a horrible team defender. Danny Ferry was a horrible individual defender, but a very good team defender. If you can't recognize these differences, you might have isolated your problem in comprehension.
And yes, the media gives Manu a lot of credit for steals, blocks, charges and whatever else. That doesn't mean he's a good one-on-one defender. And again, he usually causes havoc in the TEAM defensive setting.
Then again, if you can't tell the difference, I don't know what to tell you other than to watch more basketball.
First of all, I gave credit when credit was due for Ginobili defensively. In the Finals, I thought he was playing his best defense of the season. There were other times in the playoffs when I said he was playing good defense.
But yes, there were times when he wasn't playing one-on-one defensive as well as he could have been playing. And if you don't think Pop wasn't also pointing out the same things I was pointing out, you're crazy. Pop's life is dissecting defense and pointing out poor defensive play.
And yes, for the 20,000th time, LeBron and Finley are better one-on-one defenders. LeBron scored a 93 on this DCS thing, so shouldn't you be apologizing for saying he's a bad defender?
But seriously, when Finley and Ginobili are on the court at the same time, how come Finley gets the tougher assignment defensively? Do you not watch the Spurs and notice for example in the first round that there were times when Finley was on Carmelo while Ginobili was on Kleiza? Do you not notice that Parker was guarding Iverson (the shooting guard) when Ginobili was guarding Blake (the point guard)? If you think Manu is the Bruce Bowen-lite you paint him as, don't you think Pop would have caught on to this by now and put him against tougher opponents to shut them down? Who was the toughest player Pop had Manu guard in the playoffs? Raja Bell?
Really, think with some common sense. This team is coached by perhaps the best defensive coach of all-time. He recognizes the strengths and weaknesses of his defenders. There are reasons why Manu is almost always placed against the other team's weakest player. 1) Manu's not a very good one-on-one defender 2) Manu is a very good bordering on great team defender.
You can opt to see the obvious or continue to bury your head in the sand and pretend that Ginobili is the first player in sporting history without a flaw.
And speaking of credibility, anyone who has read my takes over the years knows that all I care about is the Spurs winning championships. I have takes on every aspect of this team from Tim Duncan to Sergei Karaulov.
On the other hand, you usually only come out of hiding when the topic concerns Manu Ginobili. I'm not the one with a credibility issue.
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