Reply With Quote
We lose game 2 and suddenly its the Suns tournament to lose....
Here is John Hollinger's take on it. As usual, he really likes the Spurs, and he has some semi-convincing pseudo-math to back it up. An interesting read.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playo...ohn&id=2862552
The more I watch the NBA playoffs, the more apparent it is to me that late-season performance is a vastly more important factor than we've been led to believe. For instance, in the last three seasons, Detroit, San Antonio and Miami all made runs after the All-Star break that were much more impressive than their full-season results.
And since a lot of observers (ahem) didn't account for this fully, they ended up underestimating two of those teams' chances in the postseason (San Antonio in 2005 being the exception; didn't take a rocket scientist to pick that one).
But just in case I didn't quite get the point, the basketball gods hammered it over my head in the first round of the playoffs this season. New Jersey, which finished strong, knocked out Toronto, which didn't. Miami, which finished badly, was swept with shocking ease by Chicago.
Rocky Widner/Getty Images
How long can the Warriors stay on their late-season hot streak?
And then there was Golden State. Its win over Dallas would have been easier to see coming, perhaps, if we had taken more note of just how well the Warriors had played since Baron Davis came back on March 5.
I've already beaten that point into the ground, but I failed until this weekend to notice the opposite half of that argument -- that as good as Dallas' season was, the Mavs didn't exactly finish with a flourish.
In particular, something caught my attention that I don't think has been discussed much, if at all. A friend e-mailed me after the series and said that Dirk Nowitzki's only possible excuse was that he was hurt and not telling anyone. Well, I went digging through the info on his player card, and remembered that Nowitzki did indeed hurt his ankle on March 28 against Milwaukee.
No, I'm not launching an after-the-fact defense of Dirk. Regardless of how he felt, pretty much everybody is less than 100 percent this time of year, and besides, he couldn't have been hurt as badly as Baron Davis was in Game 6.
Instead, my point is that this research caused me to stumble upon something vastly more enlightening -- the fact that Nowitzki wasn't nearly as good after the All-Star break as he was in the first half of the season. Check out his season splits, for instance, and look at that swan dive his numbers took in March and April. Better yet, go through his game log and look for the games with more than 30 points -- you'll notice there are 14 of them before the end of February, and none afterward.
Seen in that context, Nowitzki's failure to deliver in the Golden State series wasn't some colossal collar job. It was the continuation of a second half that fell far short of what he accomplished in a sparkling first half, especially in the month of January. Whether it was a bad ankle or bad feng shui isn't important to me, but what is important is that we could have seen this coming if we had focused more on year-end play. Between Dirk's spring slump and the Warriors' hot finish, the result would have been a whole lot less surprising.
So let's learn from our previous mistakes. Today, I'm doing a reseeding of the remaining eight playoff teams, based on what we know about how they finished the season and how they performed in the first round of the playoffs.
Here's how I did it. For each team, I took their average victory margin in their last 20 "relevant" regular-season games, adjusted for a home-court advantage of three points, and used that as three-quarters of their ratings. The other quarter was composed of how they fared in the first round of the playoffs, based on both average victory margin and the end-of-regular-season ratings of their opponents.
The hard part, as you might have guessed, was figuring out the "relevant" games for each team. I included only games played by their best players, and in nearly every case deleted games from the final week of the season. (There were one or two exceptions when both teams in a given game had reason to actually try). The only time I deviated from this plan was with Washington, whose best players weren't available in the first round; I did the opposite with them and only included the games when Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler didn't play.
I also didn't go further back than March 1 for any team, except for Utah -- the Jazz had a stretch in late February and early March that was their best of the season and I felt it unfairly penalized them to leave it out.
Obviously there's some serious gray area in this method. But the benefit is that it isolates what teams have done heading into the stretch run, which recent history tells us should be more relevant to a team's playoff odds than what they did in November.
And after crunching all the numbers, here's how the remaining playoff teams rate, from worst to first (the number in parentheses is the team's theoretical victory margin against an average opponent based on this method):
8. Utah (+2.1) -- I secretly think Utah may be a better playoff team than this rating indicates. Why? Because of growing anecdotal evidence that the refs are allowing a lot more physical play in the postseason than they did in the regular season. I say "anecdotal" because free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt are down only slightly in the postseason; certainly not by enough to establish any kind of definitive conclusion.
However, here are three things I do know. First, that I've seen several games when teams were screaming bloody murder about the contact being allowed against their players in the paint. Second, that nearly every televised game has featured comments along the lines of, "Wow, they're really letting them play tonight," at several points during the broadcast. And third, that postgame conferences have been generously peppered with lines like "it was real physical out there."
Like I said, it's nothing provable at this point. But let's suppose the zebras really are letting more contact go than they did in the regular season. Would any team benefit more than Utah? The Jazz play human bumper cars with their screening in the paint, push and hold more than any team in the league at the defensive end, and had the highest rate of opponent free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt in the regular season.
To show you how completely unfazed the Jazz are by physical play, here's a quick story from Game 7 in Houston. After hearing from the Rockets' end how physical things had been, especially in the paint, I asked Jerry Sloan why he thought it had been such a physical series.
"Physical? Where?" said Sloan. "I don't think it's been a very physical series at all."
And by Utah's standards, I'm sure it wasn't.
Anyway, other than paying somebody to pull a Gillooly on Baron Davis, this is Utah's best shot of beating Golden State -- to use the blocking and tackling prowess of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Matt Harpring and Jarron Collins to grind down the faster Warriors. As with almost every Utah game, a bunch depends on how quick the refs are with the whistle. As long as physical play is allowed, the Jazz have a much better shot than my method shows.
7. New Jersey (+2.4) -- The Nets' play since Richard Jefferson returned has been more worthy of attention than I've given it, which is why they slipped past Utah into the No. 7 slot on this list (well, that and Utah's rocky finish to the regular season).
It's not just because of RJ, either. A second unit that was a liability for most of the season turned into a positive down the stretch, as Josh Boone and especially Bostjan Nachbar have been able to provide the Nets with long-absent scoring punch off the bench. The Nets still face a major obstacle in not having home court for any playoff series the rest of the way, thanks to their 41-41 regular-season record. But they benefit from being in the East's easy bracket, against ...
6. Cleveland (+5.0) -- Isn't it a horrible injustice that the Cavs-Nets winner will still be playing on Memorial Day weekend while either the Spurs or Suns sit at home? Is anyone else bothered that what are arguably the two worst teams left in the tournament are playing each other at this point, while the two best are doing the same in a different part of the bracket?
Despite its poor rating, Cleveland is in pretty good position to make a deep run. The Nets are beatable, obviously, and the Cavs will have home-court advantage in the conference finals if the Bulls can manage to upset Detroit. Incidentally, the Cavs' rating was hurt by their uninspiring performance against the Washington Damaged Goods in the first round; Cleveland's regular-season finish was at least as strong as that of Detroit and Chicago. Even now, the margin between the three is minimal.
5. Chicago (+5.4) -- This might mildly surprise some folks who fell hard for the Bulls after their sweep of Miami but, as I've argued all week, that series said a lot more about the Heat than it did about Chicago. (Incidentally, the rating doesn't include Chicago's Game 1 implosion against Detroit, or any other second-round games).
The Bulls' Game 1 whipping against Detroit at least slowed the torrent of passengers climbing aboard the Chicago bandwagon. It also gives us a fine opportunity to drag out the Pau Gasol horse for another beating. As good as Luol Deng was in Round 1, I'm still amazed that the Bulls didn't throw their chips into the pot and go for it while they had the chance. P.J. Brown's expiring contract won't be around to facilitate a trade this summer or next year, and if the Pistons vanquish the Bulls they may end up pondering this non-move for a long time.
4. Detroit (+5.7) -- Well, Flip Saunders certainly isn't repeating last year's mistake of peaking too early. If you include Game 1 of the Chicago series, the Pistons are 5-0 in the postseason. Perhaps more impressively, they're No. 1 among playoff teams in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. That's been the biggest difference between Flip and Larry Brown -- his Pistons teams have been as potent on offense as they are on defense.
Yes, those ratings are a little skewed since four of the games were against the Magic. But given how good the Pistons have looked this April, how much mettle they've shown in previous postseasons, and how beatable the other teams in the East look, it's looking more and more like Detroit will head to its third Finals in four years.
3. Phoenix (+7.2) -- The Suns hit a few bumps at midseason but pulled themselves together nicely down the home stretch; I would argue they outplayed Dallas over the season's final 20 games and would have been likely to avenge last year's conference finals defeat had the two met.
Instead, they drew the short end of the stick by drawing the Spurs in the second round, where they're literally getting their noses bloodied by a team that matches up against them better than anyone. All of which will leave the league's TV partners crying in their cereal every morning, as the league's most telegenic team is likely to be done sometime in the next fortnight. Can't we have the Suns play New Jersey or Utah instead?
2. Golden State (+7.3) -- Just in case I haven't hammered this point home yet: Golden State with a healthy Baron Davis and a healthy Jason Richardson is a scary, scary team. The Warriors score, they pressure the ball and force turnovers, they can spread the floor with shooters and run you ragged, and (shhhh!) they even have a real center, if they feel like playing one, in the rapidly improving Andris Biedrins.
That said, I would quibble with the Warriors' outranking the Suns for one reason: It assumes perfect health. In Golden State's case, this may be a cavalier assumption. Davis has a bad hammy that could limit him in the Utah series, while Matt Barnes also is wounded. And even if Davis can overcome the hamstring problem, there's no guarantee he won't hurt something else three days from now.
But fully healthy? I'd take these Warriors over just about anybody. Even without home court they're a solid favorite against Utah in Round 2, and are good enough that they could knock off Phoenix and shock the world if they got to the conference finals. Well, if they played Phoenix, that is. Which would be the greatest series ever, but probably won't happen, because there's one little problem in the way ...
1. San Antonio (+11.0) -- Look at the difference between San Antonio's rating and the rest of the teams. The difference between the Spurs and No. 2 Golden State is bigger than the difference between Golden State and No. 6 Cleveland.
With Dallas out of the picture and the Spurs already seizing home-court advantage from the Suns, San Antonio has to be considered an overwhelming favorite right now to win the championship. Consider this: The Spurs played the No. 2 team on this list, Golden State, twice after Baron Davis came back in March. Keep in mind the Warriors are 18-4 in their other games with Davis since then. But against the Spurs they lost twice by a combined total of 50 points.
Not that I needed any convincing after watching the Spurs methodically rip the heart out of a very good Denver team last week, but the numbers back up what I've been thinking since training camp tipped off -- this is San Antonio's tournament to lose. And thus far, the Spurs don't seem inclined to lose it.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
We lose game 2 and suddenly its the Suns tournament to lose....
Fun fan reading, but I sure hope the Spurs aren't reading this crap.
Another great article, always interesting to read, never quite as prescient or accurate as one would hope. But Hollinger is quickly becoming my favorite writer in the league for his takes. On top of all the stats he's a good writer, and he loves the game.
The only thing I appreciate about this article is that Hollinger uses March 1 as his starting point for his analysis. Must be a Spurstalk reader.
Didn't the Nuggets play well in the last 20 games of the year as well.
But anyways, I fear the Jazz much more than any other team remaining in the playoffs right now, the matchup is just terrible for the Spurs on this one.
Who is going to guard Okur and Boozer? Williams is too strong for Parker to guard, so it would probably be Bowen on him, but that would create a domino effect where there is no one left for Parker or Ginobili to guard.
Then Kirelinko and Boozer on Duncan, that is going to be a nightmare.
Yeah, I'd be interested in seeing those calculations for all the playoff teams, not just those that are left.
lotta bull in this article. but he recognizes who the true favorite is now. Spurs.
Thanks for posting this. Them bas s at espn don't let you read this article unles you are an INsider. What a bunch of head. insider my ass. Anyone who watched the NBA season knows how good the Spurs are compared to the rest.
yeah i hate that insider bull . 'em. they ain't good enough for me to waste my time getting insider pass
Not really. We have home court advantage for the rest of the playoffs.
We lose game 2 and suddenly its the Suns tournament to lose....
Spurs are in perfect position. But it won't be easy. Phoenix will play us tough the rest of the way, and I expect the winner of Utah/GS to be a very stern test as well. And then... we all know the Pistons aren't an easy team to beat on any day, even sans Ben Wallace. The Bulls match up with us very well, too. Note that I'm making no mention of our matchups against the Cavs or Nets, seeing as how the chances of playing them in the Finals are about 5% combined.
However, I really don't see anyone stopping us. Just too much Tim Duncan and not enough players in the league that can even slow him down, on either end of the court.
"Which would be the greatest series ever, but probably won't happen, because there's one little problem in the way ..."
how in the would a Phoenix and GS series be the greatest ever?
Thats re ed.
The guy has a lot of time on his hands to make up these arbitrary number system(s).
I love GS, but no way they're ahead of Phoenix.
I think that Hollinger is a tool, because I don't like how so many analysts think that these hodgepodge rating systems are the only way to judge a player. Stein is a way better analyst.
IMO, Spurs are probably the least likely team to be bothered by what the media says. I'm sure everyone on the team besides Beno doesn't have time to read ESPN.com during the playoffs.
Dude, I dont know, that would be pretty sweet to watch
I honestly don't put stock in what any of these bags say. Legler has been pro Spurs...then he'll jump ship and say "Pistons, go PIS-TONS!!" These analysts get paid for nothing IMO.
Nah I meant I think writers and media change thier mind too quickly. If Suns win game 2 we will hear a different tune I bet. But don't worry I believe!
Unless we lose a game at home. As the Nash incident shows, sh*t happens in the playoffs. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, OK?
"Sir Bedevere, truly you have a dizzying intellect. Tell me again how Sheep's bladders can be used to prevent earthquakes..."
Hollinger is on the Spurs' payroll so it doesn't surprise me when he concocts stats that list the Spurs as the best.
Phoenix and GS would be a dream match-up to the casual fan.
With that said, Detroit vs San Antonio would be nightmare?
I agree. GS pulled off a great upset over Dallas, but those are bound to happen once every decade or so. As he points out, the Spurs flattened GS by a total of 50 points the last two late season matchups between the teams. Yet to think that GS and Phoenix would be one of the greatest series ever is so exaggerated. Incredibly weak.
Typical take by a mainstream media type who does not appreciate true championship basketball and hard nosed defense. Weak. Get an attention span, dude!
Dirk was dominate last year! HE was going to the basket on drives , not just jump shooting. Plus he got to the nba finals. It seems last season is the season he was better.
Detroit is above 4... at least to the Spurs...
If we get past phoenix... they will be the largest obstacle left in our way (and toughest of the playoffs just like 05)
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
.jpg)