What Say You Weather Manny

[1369]

Any chance of significant ac ulation?

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 PM CST MON JAN 8 2007)

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF MOSTLY CLEAR-DRY WEATHER WITH CONTINUED COLD
NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS AS A NWLY FLOW PREVAILS AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BACK TO
NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BUT ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AS A
STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BRISK
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY IN WEST TX.
THE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
CLOUDS FOR THE LATE WEEK...AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO SURGES
BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AS
A LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE DEEPENING GULF MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL RESULT A INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET.

THE MARTIN LUTHER KING WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES LOOK LIKE A POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR S TX AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...PUSHING IN THE HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION AHEAD OF/WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY...THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE LOW LEVELS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CHANCES FOR OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH THE MOIST SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE COLD DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS BELOW. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT AREAS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE NRN HILL COUNTRY COULD SEE WINTER PCPN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THE DEEP SNOW PACK EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL CERTAINLY MINIMIZE MODIFICATION OF THIS ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

IN SUMMARY HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF DRASTICALLY DROPPING
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WIT
GOOD CHANCE POPS THRU THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE WINTER PCPN WOULD MOST LIKELY START IN THE HILL COUNTRY IN FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS THE COLD AIR WILL INITIALLY BE VERY SHALLOW...BUT WITH CAA/EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD SEE A CHANGE OVER THE SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AS THE AIRMASS DEEPENS. MUCH TOO EARLY TO PONDER AC ULATION AMOUNTS...BUT THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER OTHER THAN JUST COLD TEMPERATURES...SO BEARS A CLOSE WATCH.

[Fillmoe]

Raise your hand if you're confused

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Raise your hand if you're confused

Let me make it easy for you, dumbass.

[Fillmoe]

Let me make it easy for you, dumbass.

what the does that have to do with manny

[ZStomp]

go to weather.com ksat.com woai.com mysa.com etc...

[scott]

Weather channel says lows over the weekend around 35... I'm not certified meteorologist, but I would say that dampens chances of "ac ulation"

[CubanMustGo]

I'm supposed to fly DFW/London on Saturday and will be majorly pissed if this excuse of a "winter weather" system keeps me from getting out on time.

[ashbeeigh]

damn damn damn. Move in day is going to succcccckkkkkkkkkkk. Ac ulation or not.

[Mr Dio]

go to weather.com ksat.com woai.com mysa.com etc...

I think that might be a little too obvious for most people Z.

[scott]

I'm supposed to fly DFW/London on Saturday and will be majorly pissed if this excuse of a "winter weather" system keeps me from getting out on time.

I flew to NYC with snow on the ground at DFW a few months ago, I wouldn't expect you to have any problems unless its The Day After Tomorrow (movie).

Have a great trip!

[CubanMustGo]

Snow's one thing, ice (what they're talking about right now) is another. Ice+Texas=panic in the streets

[MannyIsGod]

Ice + ANYWHERE = Panic

No one deals with ice well.

I didn't see this thread until Scott linked it. But yup, I think the news ill get to run their biannual "Big Chill" graphics late this weekend.

[Shelly]

Manny,

There's a pretty good article in February's issue of Popular Mechanics about Canada's ice road. I thought you might find it interesting. I didn't see it on their website, but you can read at the library, I'm sure.

[MannyIsGod]

WTF?

THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST IS THE ELIMINATION OF WINTERY
WX BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT POST-
FRONTAL WINTERY PRECIP. HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND BLUSTERY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY TO MAKE
OUTDOOR PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING COLD SNAP.

TYPICALLY WE NEED TWO FACTORS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THEY ARE AN INTRUSION OF AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DIGGING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WE HAVE THE ARCTIC INTRUSION BUT NOT THE
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF.

Are you ing kidding me? The models can't have changed that much in one run. I call bull .

[CubanMustGo]

It's called "oops, as usual we overstated the chances of winter precip in TX and now there is absolutely NO data anywhere to support it." FWIW they have done the same thing in D/FW, raising the temps a few degrees when it's supposed to be wet this weekend.

[Shelly]

Steve Browne still thinks we will get something.

[MannyIsGod]

I like Steve Browne.

[MannyIsGod]

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA ON SUNDAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON WHAT IS TO OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z SOLUTION NOW DEPICTS
OVERRUNNING PCPN MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 1-10. SFC AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THUS HAVE
BLENDED WITH CRP AND HGX AND RE-INTRODUCED A WINTERY MIX INTO THE
FCST. CONFIDENCE...TO SAY THE LEAST IS LOW ATTM.

I knew that one model run wasn't enough to shift the damn forcast. The GFS handles crap horribly because there is so little historical data on it.

I bet that #1 its colder than they think its going to be, and #2 we get precip.

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFS and NAM runs show overrunning precip. It'll be interesting to see what the next NWS discussion says.

[1369]

Manny, when does the NWS normally update their discussions, and does the NWS have a site for long range (10 days or so) forecasting? I've looked but haven't been able to find anything.

[MannyIsGod]

They normally update the local discussion very 4 hours or so. However, the real updates come 2 times a day, both between 4 and 5 o'clock both AM and PM. Sometimes a bit earlier, sometimes a bit later.

As for 6-10 day outlooks, this is the best you can get:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[MannyIsGod]

They have a crappy feel for this system. They have sped up the cold air, slowed it down, sped it up, and now slowed it down again. They've flip flopped on the moisture as well.

ONE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FROZEN
PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
PRECIP WILL ALL BE RAIN.

[Shelly]

As I say to every prediction...

"I'll believe it when I see it."

[CubanMustGo]

As I say to every prediction...

"I'll believe it when I see it."

Ah, my dream job ... weather forecaster. You can be wrong 80% of the time and still keep a good-paying job. If only Trinity would have offered more than that one stinkin' meteorology class

[Shelly]

Steve Browne is still saying yes.