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More terrible wish casting (but luckily without the travel log and female conquests while traveling with your mom), par.
Not a ton going on this year...
Still enough to talk about.
-KY governor: prediction Tilt D (Beshear*)
-MS governor: prediction Likely R (Reeves*)
-Ohio legal abortion ballot measure: Yes + 14
-Virginia state House: R 52 - D 48
-Virginia state Senate: R 20 - D 20
-New Jersey state House and state Senate stay [D] majority
-PA State Supreme Court: Likely D (D+6-8%)
More terrible wish casting (but luckily without the travel log and female conquests while traveling with your mom), par.
Mostly agree with these predictions except i think KY Gov is lean D (borderline likely D given how atrocious Daniel N!gger is as a candidate) and I think the Dems hold the VA State senate. The state senate is gonna come down to a Biden +13 Loudoun county seat that Rs definitely have a chance in but the Dems recruited a great candidate for it.
Other interesting things to watch:
Ohio legalized weed referendum - my hunch has been that public sentiment has been turning against legalized weed recently and that this measure will fail. We’ll see.
Carmel, Indiana mayoral election - obviously no one gives a about a mayoral election, but this used to be a dark red city so if the Dems competes and/or wins it’s a sign of how suburban trends are going.
His Virginia senate prediction might be a slight wishcast but it’s not an unreasonable prediction and could def happen. I think the Ds end up with 21 or 22 state senate seats and anywhere from 49-51 state assembly seats.
Some of his other predictions are actually more D leaning than I’m expecting. I think the D only wins the PA Supreme Court seat by 4% or so and I think abortion only passes in Ohio by 10%.
Abortion rights are too much of an issue with VA voters.
The GOP will get clobbered over it.
I would have said Likely D a month ago, but the last two polls have them either tied or the one from Emerson that has Cameron up by 1%. And they're the same pollster that gave Beshear the 16% lead. I do agree that everyone from Trump downwards haven't done to help Cameron in the race, but let's not act like he's some Herschel Walker with all the affairs and aborted/neglected kids and he had going on last year. Not to mention that he couldn't complete a proper sentence and was basically John Fetterman south with the CTE.
I'm going with Tilt D because Beshear has been the favorite all year up until this point and it's a conservative state despite the fact that a lot of boomer conservatives in KY are still registered Democrats and never changed their party registration because ....why waste the time?
That Biden +13 West Loudoun County seat was Youngkin +2 , iirc. The parent strike against the teachers union and Governor Northam area, that garnered national press attention and rightfully so.
I expected abortion to pass in Michigan by only 7-9% last year and it passed by 14-15% and carried Whitmer and the rest to easy victory. The rust belt is overwhelmingly pro choice and even the average conservative there is moderate on abortion, maybe in favor of the 21 week ban solution, but definitely not in favor of the "muh life begins at conception no exceptions" evangelical crap, which was technically state law in Michigan for the second half of 2022.
Carmel Indiana mayor race will probably go red by a single digit likely margin IMO. Maybe slightly higher due to Biden's unfavorables / national environment. Not the R+25 or so city of years past. It's actually a hippie little city (NOT hipster like say Portland or Seattle or Asheville though) with a booming little arts district, lots of roundabouts, and no stoplights (I've been there 3-4 times) which is, in general, a Democratic-led infrastructure city planning concept. I'm not calling roundabouts woke, I'm just saying they're more of a left-wing, outside-the-box way of thinking. Nothing wrong with them. But Carmel also is very white and supportive of the police and meat-eating there. My face is on the wall of fame at Bub's Burgers & Ice Cream in downtown Carmel, twice, once with Marissa from 2019 and the other time solo in 2021, both for eating the 32-ounce elk burger ("big ugly") in 30 minutes or something like that.
I disagree though on Ohio legalizing cannabis. I don't believe public sentiment at all has been turning against legalization, apart from evangelicals; in fact the opposite. I'm not a pot smoker at all and I don't think pot use has necessarily gone up dramatically in the last 10 years, but conservatives in the rust belt are much more moderate on those type of social issues, even if they're more conservative on issues like normalized transgender and non-binary/gay counterculture being mainstream, gay/trans activity in bathrooms/cross sports, transgender surgeries under 18 and graduated from high school (not to be confused with gay marriage; I don't believe most libertarians are in favor of overturning Obergefell v Hodges).
In Michigan in Nov. 2018, legalization of marijuana passed (Prop 1, 2018) by 11.7%, granted it was a blue wave year. That's a good barometer for Ohio.
I think in Ohio it [Ohio Prop 2] will pass by a single-digit likely margin, around 7-8% or so.
On the subject of abortion... in Michigan in 2022 just last year, [Michigan Prop 3] passed by 13.3%, with Whitmer's favorable rating at +6.4% (hers has actually gone up in 2023, while Biden continues to tank), Biden's favorable rating at -8.4%, and Biden's job approval rating at -11.4%. Today, Biden's favorable rating is -13.8% (significantly worse), Biden's job approval is -14.8%.
However, Ohio voted significantly against the August 8th referendum to require a 60% threshold to pass Ohio Issue 1, by 14.2%, so I think a similar margin is in order for Yes for this vote. Expect enormous voter turnout from the college campuses and Columbus specifically for the abortion issue, even if those low-propensity voters wouldn't be enthused to vote for say, Biden or Sherrod Brown.
Think of all the (relatively) conservative fraternity/sorority kids at, say, OSU (one of the 5 biggest schools in America in terms of undergrad enrollment and attendance), who might have gotten pregnant or gotten someone pregnant accidentally (or known someone who has) and had to get Plan B or an abortion. They don't want Big Government legislating over their bodies or their partner's bodies, and I stand with them on that issue. [I was one of them. Who the actually uses condoms unless you're bagging some ghetto from the bar?]
But, school choice is also a big deal in VA in the outer suburbs, places like Loudoun and Prince William counties. That's what flipped the 2021 governorship. A lot of those swing voters are both pro choice and pro school choice, and the VA Dem Senate has blocked a lot of school choice legislation against the majority opinion of the state, so we'll have to see tonight.
One interesting caveat is that if it's 20-20 in the VA Senate then, in theory, GOP Lt. Gov Winsome Sears, similar to VPOTUS, can serve as the tie breaker vote on Senate legislation.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-07-2023 at 01:37 PM.
I think you’re drawing too many parallels between Michigan and Ohio. Yes they’re both Midwestern but Ohio isn’t an “upper Midwest” state demographically or ideologically the way Wisconsin/Michigan/Minnesota are. It has socially conservative Appalachia voters in the Ohio Valley and its southern counties have a lot of evangelicals. Cincinnati in a lot of ways is a southern city with dark red suburbs.
The western rural German counties in Ohio are also a lot more conservative than the German rural counties in MI/WI - they haven’t voted blue since FDR took sides against Germany in WWII.
Not to mention that MI and WI exurban rural counties are more Polish and Dutch than German. WI has quite a lot of German heritage in the eastern half of the state.
The main "bingo" in your post is the Appalachia voters in the Southeastern quadrant, aside from Athens which is a liberal college enclave (has been deep blue since Lyndon Johnson went there to promote his "Great Society" woke crap). They're socially conservative ancestral Ds that vote like West Virginia these days. The rural west of Ohio are ancestral Rs like the Cincinnati exurbs.
The one thing the Dems have going for them in Ohio is more deep blue stronghold cities than either MI or WI. And that's even factoring in the collapse in and around Youngstown. The GOP has tons of room to grow in rural and the small metros of MI and WI which favor them demographically, versus a state like PA where the GOP is mostly maxed out in the rural counties and only has room to grow in the west PA Pittsburgh exurban region while the Dems still have plenty of room to grow in the ever expanding, highly college educated and multiracial Philadelphia collar suburbs.
That's why I think Scranton Joe holds on PA [narrowly] in 2024, also let's not underestimate the fact that Bob Casey Jr. being on the ticket could carry him upstream to a narrow victory there. I believe pundits are being overly bullish for Trump on PA but overly bearish for Trump on WI and especially MI, which is more socially moderate with room to grow, a pissed off WWC sector (both union and non union) and an open senate seat. I don't think it's hard to envision a scenario where PA is Tilt to Lean Biden, WI is Tilt Trump and MI is Lean Trump in 2024. Ohio likely to safe Trump, Minnesota lean to likely Biden. Minnesota is basically Illinois junior at this point with the concentration of population in the Twin Cities which pretty much dominate that state's population like Chicago does.
I could definitely see a map like this unfold in 2024, give or take a Sun Belt state:
[NOTE: I use the LTE 5-15% margin for Likely, so don't be upset that a couple states like NY/NJ/IL are in the Likely column]
One caveat is that I think ME-02 could go red by a likely not lean margin, but it's academic. We'll see about the Golden/Theriault race, it could be the most difficult of Golden's career considering he used a tragedy to politicize and flip-flop on guns in a pro-gun district where the household gun ownership rate is over 65%.
Nevada doesn't really matter in this scenario; you flip either Georgia or Arizona red and Trump wins IMO. Georgia being the easier of the two because it's got more of a rural population than AZ. The three-way Senate race could carry Lake considering Gallego isn't a moderate at all and doesn't pretend to be. Doesn't necessarily mean Trump will win because a lot of Sinema voters will be voting Biden.
it didn't take very long for the race to be called for Beshear
black Republicans taking Ls per usual
OK Millennial_Messiah might have been right about Issue 1 in Ohio, that looks like a blowout.
He had tilt not blowout.
writing was on the wall in ohio after they voted down that bull proposed cons utional amendment last time
There’s no call yet in Ohio, but the Edison Research exit poll conducted for the TV news networks strongly suggest the state cons utional amendment to establish a right to an abortion will pass.
The numbers will change through the night, but the most interesting divides are along age (82 percent of voters under 30 voted yes, but only 46 percent of seniors did), marital status (married voters split evenly, but 68 percent of unmarried voters voted yes) and party ID (Democrats voted for it 92-8, Republicans 19-81 and independents 64-36).
Boomers doing boomers thangs
So much for Yam s supported Cameron in KY.
It was just called by NYT right now. Wasserman has been wrong before. Not often, but he has.
Beshear looks to probably win by about 3-4%, mid to high lean margin, after all the remaining vote is counted.
Cameron was a solid AG candidate overall, a decent Republican candidate compared to say Herschel Walker; but a poor fit for the state. Too many ancestral (D) conservative Trump voters outstate are outright racist.So much for Yam s supported Cameron in KY.
However, if you want to blame Trump for this result, blame him for not showing up and having rallies in Kentucky, not for his endorsement. It's not like Desantis's pick was beating Beshear either. Tons of money in that family, like the Casey's of Pennsylvania.
KY doesn't have explicit governor term limits but Beshear will likely not run for a third term because it's anti-traditional for a governor to run for a third term.
Huh? I had Yes + 14
I had tilt in Kentucky because of two polls, particularly the Emerson poll which had Cameron + 1 a couple days ago. Realistically though I never expected Beshear to lose. He was up 16% in a poll in early October and I made a thread about that. That people making a big deal of Michigan Ds winning statewide races in 2022 making it a blue state for 2024 is ing re ed. Look at Kentucky. Beshear's margin will be on the upper end of lean looks like.
Issue 1 called, likely Michigan margin or even higher.
Trump being a moderate on the issue, downstream effects of SCOTUS picks overturning Roe notwithstanding. Electorally, the GOP SCOTUS would have been better off overturning and privatizing SS and Medicare than Roe, to be quite honest.
Hopefully, Ohio Issue 2 also passes. That's the one I was hoping to pass even more. I mean, who doesn't love to smoke a joint and ride roller coasters at Cedar Point and Kings Island?
Absolutely, that was the harbinger. Populists overwhelmingly are pro freedom to choose, even if they're not necessarily pro-abortion themselves. Ohio and Michigan are two birds of a feather. Difference is Michigan has 1 major metro with 1 smaller metro that is deep blue while Ohio has three but scattered throughout the state, but more of Michigan is light red than Ohio to make up the difference.
Both MI and OH are overwhelmingly populist. Both will vote Trump in 2024. As will Kentucky and Kansas, despite the pro-choice (D) governors.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-07-2023 at 09:12 PM.
CNN calling it for Beshear with 85% votes tallied (by close to 6% in KY, yes Kentucky).
You had 14% for Ohio legal abortion ballot measure:not Beshear up 14%.
GOP getting wrecked per par.
Are you talking to yourself again?
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