Hollinger tidbit on Spurs point differential vs record

[StoneBuddha]

For those who don't have insider... a tidbit from today's Per Diem

"In fact, the top-eight Western team most likely to miss the postseason isn't any of the seven I mentioned above: It's San Antonio. Say this to anyone in the league, and you'll immediately be countered with the absolute dead certainty of the Spurs finishing in the top eight, and there's a logic behind this: San Antonio has a superior point differential (plus-4.7 per game) and a 2½ game lead over the Rockets in the West. Combine that with the expectation of the Spurs' patented second-half surge, and they'd seem a lock.

Unfortunately, the Spurs haven't cashed in on their favorable early schedule. San Antonio is 29-20, but with its scoring margin it should be 34-15; that's the league's greatest negative disparity and could come back to bite the team in the second half of the season. The thing everyone misses about the Spurs is that they have only 12 home games left, and in addition their opponents' strength is among the league's most difficult over the final 33 games. As a result, the Playoff Odds give the Spurs a 71.4 percent chance of making the postseason -- solid, but far from a lock.

Still, the Spurs project to finish the season with 47 wins ... and the Rockets to come in ninth with 43. That yawning four-game gap is the greatest we've seen all season in the Western Conference projection, and that's why the East looks like a better race Monday."


http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...PERDiem-100208

[jason1301]

My day wouldn't be complete w/o Holinger saying the Spurs can't make the playoffs.

He made a similar statement last year by... manipulating the numbers.. and he was wrong.

I don't have time to do the research but from my understanding, the Spurs gave up leads and lost many close games --I wouldn't be surprised if we are top5 in that category.

That's matters more than anything else, because as Holinger pointed out, we seem to play a lot better the second half of the season. Not only at home but on the road as well.

[Spur|n|Austin]

Hollinger and his numbers are about as cool as a fanny pack full of pogs.

[ffadicted]

lol Hollinger saying the east is a better race. ing fail

[Obstructed_View]

I don't have time to do the research but from my understanding, the Spurs gave up leads and lost many close games --I wouldn't be surprised if we are top5 in that category.

I think Hollinger implied exactly that. The Spurs are probably dead last in the league in close games, and the Mavs are probably first in the same category. If both are statistical abberrations, it's possible to see the teams swapped in the standings six weeks from now, as they adjust to where their point differential says they should be.

[StoneBuddha]

I think Hollinger implied exactly that. The Spurs are probably dead last in the league in close games, and the Mavs are probably first in the same category. If both are statistical abberrations, it's possible to see the teams swapped in the standings six weeks from now, as they adjust to where their point differential says they should be.

For me, that was the most interesting part of the article. Even though the Spurs point differential is built largely on beating up the sub .500% teams, their point differential translates to a 34-15 record.

Our perspective on the team would be vastly different with that record... I guess I'm still trying to be optimistic about the season.

[Obstructed_View]

Well a team that didn't collapse in the second half and choke in the clutch would make all of us more secure. What happens in the close games can be attributed to a person who makes personnel decisions or draws up plays.