Originally Published: July 22, 2009
Who's at the head of the rookie class?
By David Thorpe
Scouts Inc.
Ranking the rookies before the season relies on a simple formula: Talent plus opportunity equals overall production. Much guesswork remains in terms of predicting opportunity, as teams are still filling out their depth charts, so we'll tweak this list as the offseason moves along. And we'll add more second-rounders once we get a better idea of which ones will actually make a roster.
Until then, here's my first 2009-10 rookie report:
The Top 10
1. Blake Griffin, Clippers
His combination of talent, powerful athleticism and passion for the game is unique. And he can be a culture changer for a franchise in desperate need of one.
I once heard Christian Laettner, then starring for back-to-back NCAA championship runs at Duke, explain that the key to his success was that he "played poor." No description better defines Griffin's style -- he plays with an at ude that seems bent on proving he belongs, despite being rich in talent.
2. Tyreke Evans, Kings
Evans is playing for a team in need of talent upgrades, especially at the point guard spot. So it is hard to imagine anything less than 30 minutes a night for this scoring machine.
Similar to Derrick Rose's situation last season, Evans can expect the offense to revolve a good deal around what he does best. The Kings will post him up, spread the floor for him and feature him as the clock winds down on numerous occasions. With his craftiness, length and skill as a finisher, he could lead the rookie class in points per game.
3. Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves
As of today, he's the starting point guard for a team that has great talent inside (and two big bodies to use as ball screens). Flynn has great charisma on the floor, and he can use his jets in both the half-court and full-court game.
Considering the Wolves don't have a backup point guard who demands playing time, Flynn may lead this rookie class in minutes played. And with his confidence and talent, he'll put up very productive numbers. Unless … Ricky Rubio decides to suit up for the Wolves, too.
4. DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
No player impressed me more during the summer league than he did. He played like a bigger version of Courtney Lee -- he was smart with the ball, didn't force things and played off his teammates very well. Those attributes are perfect for his role on the Raps, who look very similar to last season's Magic.
DeRozan can simply make plays within the system and let his veteran teammates carry the tougher work until he evolves into the quality starter he seems destined to become.
5. Brandon Jennings, Bucks
If Ramon Sessions stays in Milwaukee, Jennings will fall out of the top 10. But because Sessions is expected to leave, Jennings projects to play major minutes. And he's too talented not to put up some impressive numbers.
Jennings plays like a true point, looking to score only if it's the best option. And he showed in summer league that he can make players better, especially in transition. As I watched him play in Vegas, I kept thinking, "Who wouldn't like playing with this guy?" If Jennings accepts the tough love he'll get from Bucks coach Scott Skiles, he will be a candidate for rookie of the year.
6. James Harden, Thunder
I think Harden is the second-best American player in this class, but he's competing for playing time with Thabo Sefolosha, an up-and-coming player who does many of the same things Harden does. The Thunder need to develop both guys, which means Harden probably won't get the minutes that the guys ahead of him on this list will.
Still, this gifted passer plays the game beautifully, with a veteran's pace and intelligence, so he'll be productive in the time he gets. Should Sefolosha falter, Harden immediately would become a ROY contender.
7. Stephen Curry, Warriors
On one hand, Curry might have been the second-most disappointing rookie in Vegas (though he was second by a long shot to Hasheem Thabeet), shooting poorly and with seemingly no thoughts behind his actions. But on the other hand, he found a way to contribute in other areas.
Curry will figure out a smarter way to play offense (his coach will help), so it seems likely that he'll end up performing solidly this season.
8. Earl Clark, Suns
As I tweeted from Vegas, it'll be very hard to keep Clark off the floor this season -- primarily, and perhaps a bit ironically, because of his talents on defense. Clark can defend bigs and wings, using his length, quickness and excellent feel for the game. With Phoenix's front line in flux, it looks as though he'll earn ample opportunities to show he deserved to be a high lottery pick.
He's also an excellent passer and a perfect fit in the Suns' offense.
9. Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers
He showed in Orlando summer league that what we saw from him at UNC for four years is what we'll get going forward; he's a beast of a player. He's better off coming off the bench, where his energy will be even more valuable.
One item of concern: Hansbrough relies on getting to the free throw line a great deal, and that might not happen often as a rookie. He's better off focusing on finishing rather than trying to get the whistle. He also will be a factor in the Pacers' transition game, as he rarely fails to race the floor.
10. Jordan Hill, Knicks
Like Clark, the current lack of an iden y on the Knicks' front line suggests that Hill will get minutes. And he's the type of player who will perform better when surrounded by veterans who understand spacing and timing. Hill will compete at a high level, and his size and agility combined with his effort will translate well to the Knicks' system.
The Next 10
This is where the lack of starter talent jumps out, especially compared with last year's rooks. In truth, that argument can be made after the first seven or eight guys listed above. The next 10 are all solid NBA prospects, but they have a lot of work to do to ensure that their teams don't draft the same position next year.
11. Wayne Ellington, Timberwolves
He's already a good NBA shooter, and he has the rangy athleticism that will help him defend and rebound. Playing with a dynamo point guard (Flynn) and talented bigs (Al Jefferson, Kevin Love) will help him get easier shots, too. The lack of shooting guards on Minnesota's roster should guarantee Ellington minutes from the get-go.
12. DeMarre Carroll, Grizzlies
As I've written over and over again, energy is a talent. Carroll excels in this area. Memphis has a need for his ability, especially when its starters have poor starts. Carroll will change the flavor of a game often enough to continue to demand minutes. He's a solid finisher, too.
13. Darren Collison, Hornets
He'd be a top-10 guy for me if he were playing on almost any other team. His ability to handle the point guard duties for the Hornets will be evident from day one. Of course, playing behind the world's best point guard will make it hard for Collison to play more than 10 minutes a game. Maybe New Orleans coach Byron Scott will develop him earlier and get CP3 more rest during the season.
14. Jeff Teague, Hawks
We didn't see him during summer league, but his talents are undeniable. Although Mike Bibby has a new deal, Teague is Atlanta's point guard of the future. I think we might see them play together some as well.
15. Ty Lawson, Nuggets
When Lawson is the best offensive player on a team, the results may not be pretty. But on a loaded Nuggets squad, he's perfect -- as long as he focuses more on defense. Like Jennings, he's a joy to play alongside.
16. Gerald Henderson, Bobcats
This athletic guard has a chance to fly up our board if he can get playing time from a coach who doesn't just give minutes away to rooks. Of course, Henderson is used to strong coaching, so his learning curve could be swift.
17. Terrence Williams, Nets
He's the hardest guy to project in a sense. He's not much of a scorer. However, he loves to compete, and he's a terrific passer. His athleticism helps him a great deal, too. Will he find a position fast enough to crack the rotation early? I think so, and he could do it as a small forward.
18. Austin Daye, Pistons
He deserves to be higher based on his summer debut, but playing behind Mr. Do-it-all (otherwise known as Tayshaun Prince) suggests that he'll spend most of the season learning and getting stronger
19. Omri Casspi, Kings
"The Zohan" struggled on offense in Vegas, partly because of forced inactivity until his FIBA contract got resolved. He looked more comfortable at the end of summer league, bringing energy and playmaking skills to a team in desperate need of both. Donte Greene's poor performance this summer left the door wide open for Casspi.
20. Toney Douglas, Knicks
Douglas may have been the worst shooter on the worst team in Vegas. But his ability to run a team and defend his position ranked near the top. His shooting woes likely will not continue on the Knicks, and his playmaking and ball-hawking skills will translate into decent minutes.
The best of the rest
Some of these guys are second-round guys; others are first-rounders who looked OK in summer league but are stuck behind too many good players.
James Johnson, Bulls
He showed excellent talent as a passer and had some impressive moments during summer league. But with Luol Deng, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah in front of him at the 3 and 4 spots, how much will he play?
DeJuan Blair, Spurs
Blair did as expected -- he moved people around and got buckets and boards. He has lost 50 pounds since college but still plays "heavy" (below the rim or too slow in transition) too often. However, he could be one of a few rookies playing meaningful minutes in the spring.
Marcus Thornton, Hornets
Thornton needs lots of shots to score, but unlike most volume shooters, he can really play the game. And he brings great tenacity, too. I think he and Collison can end up forming a strong bench nucleus for the Hornets.
DaJuan Summers, Pistons
Might have been a top-five rookie performer in Vegas. The huge changes on Detroit's front line suggest that Summers will spend a lot of time on the court … and in our top 20 eventually.
Jodie Meeks, Bucks
It's hard to ask for more than what Meeks did in Vegas, where he hit a lot of big shots and competed at a high level. He looks like a surefire NBA player, and his at ude seems perfect for the kind of coaching he'll get. He was all business during summer league play.
Chase Budinger, Rockets
The comparisons to Adam Morrison (all offense, no defense) are missing one huge factor: Budinger is a purer shooter than Ammo was coming out of college. Budinger shot incredibly well all week in Vegas and made the best argument possible that he belongs on the Rockets' roster.
Dante Cunningham, Blazers
I'm not sure he'll make Portland's roster this year, but not because of how he played in Vegas. He was a standout there.
The project list
Ricky Rubio, Timberwolves
He's not a project on the court, but getting him to Minnesota seems to be the biggest project facing the T-Wolves. He's going to make everyone on that team better, once he's in uniform. One hundred percent of the executives I spoke with felt he should have been a top four selection, and all cited his master set of passing skills. They also said his shooting is underrated and will get much better in time.
Jrue Holiday, 76ers
Holiday had the double misfortune of not playing the point for an entire season at UCLA (though after watching Collison's talent it's easy to understand why), then getting to do it for the hybrid Nets-Sixers team that never jelled at all. The bad news is that every part of his offensive game seemed below par, but the good news is that his talent was obvious. He's a solid prospect to be sure, and the best news is that he defended the ball better than any guard we saw in either summer league.
Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies
This much is certain; Memphis knew they were getting a project when they drafted him. And while his at ude seemed positive and his demeanor on the court was professional, his effort level never came close to what it will take for him to have success in the NBA. His lack of strength, balance, or scoring skills are not the issues. Give him those same sets of weaknesses, but replace his passion for the games with Blake Griffin's, and Memphis would have a center that would be the envy of the entire league.
David Thorpe is an NBA analyst for Scouts Inc. and the executive director of the Pro Training Center in Clearwater, Fla., where he oversees the player development program for more than 40 NBA, European League and D-League players. Those players include Kevin Martin, Rob Kurz, Luol Deng, Courtney Lee and Tyrus Thomas.
James Harden at 6? Stephon Curry at 7?
WTF?
Statistically speaking and according to Hollinger, Thorpe is wrong about 98.3% to a variance of 87 degrees regarding his view of second choice second rounders to the negative meaning that Blair will now probably make it the HOF in his rookie year.
If Thabeet doesn't put more effort he is going to get bullied and beaten up.Hasheem Thabeet, Grizzlies
This much is certain; Memphis knew they were getting a project when they drafted him. And while his at ude seemed positive and his demeanor on the court was professional, his effort level never came close to what it will take for him to have success in the NBA. His lack of strength, balance, or scoring skills are not the issues. Give him those same sets of weaknesses, but replace his passion for the games with Blake Griffin's, and Memphis would have a center that would be the envy of the entire league.
He was second right behind Griffin.
Before the season starts, they should be grading how well the rooks played. Not how well they played and how many minutes they are going to play. Wait for the season when its happening to do that. Harden, Blair, Collison, and Daye should have been higher.
You're right. Though it was based on a 40 minute extrapolation. My math skills tell me going to 48 minutes would give similar results.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthre...34#post3576334
Edit: Oh I think scottspurs was thinking about PER and we're thinking about production (per) 40 minutes. Two different things.
Last edited by Shastafarian; 07-24-2009 at 01:36 PM.
My thoughts exactly!
I had to scroll way too long to see Blair's name.
Just wait until Blair bulks back up with muscle. He no doubt lost some if he truly lost 50 lbs.
I can see where the comments about playing heavy/slow came from. The highlights I saw, Blair stayed low and used his body to get off layups/garbage buckets around the rim. I did not see a single dunk. Then again, his game is more similar to TD where he uses his body and long wingspan rather than athleticism. The question will be how well it translates to the NBA since he is much shorter. I am concerned that a premier NBA shot blocker will nullify Blair, to what degree we shall see. This goes back to matchups though, teams without a shotblocker, Blair may kill in those games. Also I am talking offense not defense. I think Blair can board no matter the matchup.
this is one of the worst lists of the offseason.
Thorpe writes that Curry was the second most dissapointing rookie in SL, but has him 7th. The only way to justify this is the way he seems to be putting emphasis on the opportunity for playing time in the regular season.
...then Thorpe proceeds to place Blair out of the top 20 despite being "one of the few rookies playing meaningful minutes next spring." He also says that Dajuan Summers was a "top 5 performer" at SL and should get playing time, but that he too belongs out of the top 20.
David Thorpe needs to extract his head from his ass. I try not to get on guys for making lists but this one is abysmal. I continue to believe, and I think the reg season will prove me correct, that Blair will be a top 10 rookie.
Poor Blair, he is getting put through the ringer as he gets ready for his rookie season. This guy seems to be a lightening rod for doubters. Blake Griffin is going to have a better shot at being ROY because of starters minutes and the fact he is just flat out more gifted, but should Blake pull an Odom I think Blair will make a solid case for himself being high up there in rookie rankings come May and June.
wow....i wasnt expecting that at all....he was raving about him though his stupid tweets...what a dumb ass...blair did a good enough job to be at least in top 10...o wait he works for espn so there you go they hate the spurs
Grizzly Blair has officially begun to receive the Spurs treatment from "analysts." All this guy said was basically that he did as expected.
omg blair wanst #1. what a travesty!
who gives a where this doofus ranked Blair. Dejuan will get a ring in his rookie year.
Blair was the #2 SL player in PER, and by far the #1 SL player in TRB%, even ahead of Griffin..I'll take that over anything else..
Blair was picked at 37 and it will take time for him to move up in the rookie rankings regardless of how well he plays. Anyway, who cares? This list is lame and nobody knows how rookies will play until 3-4 weeks into the season. Last year Bayless looked like one of the best players in SL and he barely even got minutes.
blake griffin looks like a busts to me...he has KVH + morrison written all over it...lmao
I'm very glad I traded for both Harden and Clark in DL II. I'm pretty sure that, injuries aside, they are both going to have very productive 10+ year NBA careers.
And next year I've got Cole Aldrich, Earl Monroe, James Anderson and William Buford!
I think we should all give Blair a break for the first half of the season, because he's probably going to have to learn to get his shots away around the rim at the NBA level, just like Kevin Love did last season. Love was rebounding well but only shooting around 40% until January when he finally worked it out and started to be able to score as well. I think we'll witness a similar learning curve from Blair.
Kid will be a very good player, just be a little patient.
This list makes no sense at all.
I think Blair is just going to be motivated even more to prove the so-called experts wrong and make them regret their words. The worst thing for a rookie to hear is all the praises being trumpeted over national media.
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