Aggregate stats are not transferrable from data set to data set without normalization. Your question's premise is taking 2023 wins and adding 2024 Wemby win contribution or 'first overall pick expected wins' whatever that is and then comparing it to 2024 wins.
1 2023 win != 1 2024 win.
Not sure why a trae young trade is a "panic". I'd view it as getting a really good point guard depending on what we have to give up. And most of what we would have to give up are trash ass players who shouldn't be on this team in 3 years anyway, like Keldon and Sochan.
I appreciate your insight, but it seems like we're still just having a differing opinion based upon what WS means in this context.
Just because the games aren't all built the same does not mean that a coach or, if you'd like, the players are unaccountable for winning more games before rather than after drafting a #1 pick. You're basically arguing that because different schedules are different, Pop and/or the team can't be expected to win the same amount or basketball gods forbid, more games. I find that absurd, honestly - which is why I believe your position to be meritless. It's as absurd as saying Pop has been tanking for a long time when the players and Pop himself are saying otherwise, in my opinion. There's every reason to believe the Spurs with a healthy Devin Vassell and a generational talent are better than the team which doesn't have either. That statement is based upon common sense, not necessarily any advanced stat. I looked up the last pick before Wemby just to see if this bears out at all, and Paolo Banchero improved his team by 12 wins in the following season. It's just obfuscation trying to argue the point if you're going to purposely be obtuse and say well, the schedule's aren't mirrored so that should discount any expectations. I'm assuming your position, as you've been less than forthright about it. Am I incorrect in believing you don't hold Pop or any coach to a higher standard when they add (now) proven talent to a team?
Then you are not intuitive to go along with ignorant.
This is boring. Ciao.
Boring is pimping WS as your answer for why Pop shouldn't be expected to pull out more games with Victor ing Wembanyama on the team.
That's not part of the regular season.
I think it's just as likely (maybe not mutually exclusive) that the ownership was penny pinching and didn't expect to get the 1st overall pick, so wasn't prepared to front the dough to "go for it" this year, thus the additional ownership. We saw something similar the year after Dallas won the ring. Mark and company didn't want to pay for another ring, so they just rode it out and let critical pieces go. Eventually a team wants to turn a profit. I'll admit I have no idea what the financials look like on a winning vs losing team in a small market, maybe profit sharing from the NBA as a whole makes it almost a moot point.
Good luck convincing this guy that the team is “right where it should be” if next year is going to be another losing season.
The reason I bought up Graham is that he was actually playing a little bit the year before and then he's just totally dropped out of the rotation and from the outside looking in seems very happy and somewhat the opposite of a cancer, so I don't see why he wouldn't be playing because to me, most importantly, he's better than Branham by a long shot. And so my larger point is they need to stop the tunnel vision of getting so attached to the players they drafted versus the ones they got in trades and treat them equally. I don't think Graham is so much older that he somehow couldn't be useful on this team, a team that is dead last in three-point shooting.
You would have to give up, at least, 3 or 4 (I don't remember how many the Hawks gave us on the DJ trade) unprotected picks for a player that might be too flawed to ever be part of a championship team.
Honestly, to have Wemby being all giddy and addressing a home crowd after a win to "improve" the spurs to 12-48 is pretty embarrassing. I mean, that's a pretty low bar, the team played one good game, move on, learn from it, and try to repeat it. There really is nothing to celebrate.
I don't think that win increase can be attributed solely to Banchero. If you look at all of the impact stats and numbers, Franz Wagner's impact as a second year player that season was much greater than Paolo's as a rookie.
Wagner's on court +/- per 100 possessions was +0.6, and his on/off +/- was +10.2, which is a spectacular number.
Paolo's on court +/- per 100 possessions was -4.5, and hos on/off +/- was -4.4.
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../ORL/2023.html
Well if the spurs have to give up anything beyond the hawks picks back to them and maybe a young player or two they probably shouldn't do the trade. If they can do the trade for that then all they really did was trade Dejounte for Trae and get rid of players like Keldon or Sochan who aren't good enough to be part of a playoff team let alone a championship one.
Also...the alternative to Trae is what exactly? To keep playing Jones, Wesley, and Branhim? Cause doing that has made us arguably the worst team in the league? Spend our own high draft pick on a point guard? Who says that player will ever be as good as Trae?
I'm not saying the spurs should be all in on a Trae Young trade, but they also shouldn't be walking away from one either. This team needs to drastically improve it's point guard play one way or the other. It's arguably the single biggest on the court issue the team faces.
Be patient and wait for somebody that doesn't have as big a question mark as Young has on defense. For example: a Donovan Mitc . If not, yeah, I think I'd rather take my chances drafting and developing a guy without a clear weakness that could be exposed and exploited on a championship series.
link to windhorst saying wemby would be a great fit for LA?
I remember when SpursTalk used to make fun of Clutchfans. Oof how those days are over when you get 6 page threads like this.
Spurs are the youngest team in the league, ran a PF at PG for most of the season, lost some depth, and y'all think we should be winning an extra 10-15 meaningless games that still get us absolutely nowhere near the play-in?
Christ this place is sad.
What's the ceiling on a 24 year old team that shoots open 3 pointers at the lowest clip in the NBA? I'd like to know what everyone was expecting this season from a team that can't shoot and isn't old enough to qualify for cheaper car insurance.
Last edited by Cry Havoc; 03-01-2024 at 01:13 PM.
Being patient and waiting on a star who never comes is how you end up with Tre Jones as your starting point guard.
Taking your chances in the draft is how you end up releasing a lottery point guard cause he literally couldn't keep his in his pants.
Also last time I checked Trae made it to a conference finals and Mitc has made it where exactly? I'd easily take Trae over Mitc , who is pretty much Trae without the passing.
"you traded Jedonte Murray"
"Vassal"
- Kenny the jet Smith
Being patient is also how you don't trade away guys like SGA or unprotected picks that could turn your franchise around. Two of the best teams in the league right now, OKC and Boston, benefited from teams panicking and making dumbass moves like giving away SGA or giving away a bunch of unprotected picks for "win now" moves that never panned out.
Mitc is more efficientet offensively and not a liability on defense.Also last time I checked Trae made it to a conference finals and Mitc has made it where exactly? I'd easily take Trae over Mitc , who is pretty much Trae without the passing.
Trae is also 2 years younger at 25.
Problem with acquiring Young is that it forces you to move Vassell who is our second best player. No way you can have a championship team with those two starting.
When is Wemby going to be the biggest draw to free agents to get them to come play with him. That should be part of the calculus - when can you get guys to come be part of a le team? Arguably, anywhere from next year is fine, though 2025 free agency (when he's had a full year as an all-star / all NBA level player) is probably most likely. I think there was definitely thinking around the league that he could be something like this, though I think the players were more sceptical, and he's an uncertain draw until he's shown it.
I wanted us to be a bit more in this season (over pay for Brook Lopez, trade for a Monte morris / Tyus jones type for 48 minutes of controlled PG play), but think the logic of working out how to play Wemby, and building to a le team is fine. Obvious whiff on Collins contract extension, but happens.
I don't think it's really worth full on tank /just keeping bad contracts next year, but I don't think an all in move using a bunch of assets to get one guy is a bit premature. Having this pick and the Raptors pick, future picks to cycle through more depth / quality pieces and the 2025 FA class seems like the best way to get towards a le level team. Doesn't help next year, so spending on some free agents on short term deals (ala the Pacers getting Bruce Brown) seems like a decent approach.
i mean how many point guards in the NBA have no clear weakness? probably about 5?
just waiting for one such player to enter a draft, let alone be available when you are picking, could just mean waiting forever
Mitc in a vacuum is a better player than Young but banking on signing him in free agency is while the gambit compared to trading for somebody who is going to presumably want to sign an extension and lock in
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