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  1. #476
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    He is quite clearly quoting expected points per attempt. It's wild that you can go an entire post calling someone else stupid without realizing this.
    Dumb and loud is a lousy way for Jeff to go through life...

    I've tried to explain the probability math and where he went wrong to him; but it's not working, and I'm not going to waste more of my time on it.

  2. #477
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    So, LA papers think they move Reaves and D'Lo in a package with multiple 1st's for Trae. What would you think about getting D'Lo out of that deal? Atl won't want him if they're keeping DJ. Or possibly taking Reaves + D'Lo in a 3 team deal sending KJ + a couple 1st's (Chicago and one of our own)?

  3. #478
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    So, LA papers think they move Reaves and D'Lo in a package with multiple 1st's for Trae. What would you think about getting D'Lo out of that deal? Atl won't want him if they're keeping DJ. Or possibly taking Reaves + D'Lo in a 3 team deal sending KJ + a couple 1st's (Chicago and one of our own)?
    How does that work with DLo’s Player Option? Are you assuming he’ll pick it up? Not sure the amount he’s owed.

  4. #479
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    How does that work with DLo’s Player Option? Are you assuming he’ll pick it up? Not sure the amount he’s owed.
    Yes, $18.6 assuming he opts in. I'm not sure what a S&T would liike like or if/when we could extend him if he opted in..

  5. #480
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    So, LA papers think they move Reaves and D'Lo in a package with multiple 1st's for Trae. What would you think about getting D'Lo out of that deal? Atl won't want him if they're keeping DJ. Or possibly taking Reaves + D'Lo in a 3 team deal sending KJ + a couple 1st's (Chicago and one of our own)?
    Skillset wise, he's not a bad fit as a stopgap, but he doesn't fit the precious "culture", so he's automatically out.

    Word is the Lakers think the Magic ($50-60M projected cap space) could be players for him.

  6. #481
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Skillset wise, he's not a bad fit as a stopgap, but he doesn't fit the precious "culture", so he's automatically out.

    Word is the Lakers think the Magic ($50-60M projected cap space) could be players for him.
    magic are flush with small guards

  7. #482
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    magic are flush with small guards
    You gotta have 5 of them to make a flush.

  8. #483
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    So, LA papers think they move Reaves and D'Lo in a package with multiple 1st's for Trae. What would you think about getting D'Lo out of that deal? Atl won't want him if they're keeping DJ. Or possibly taking Reaves + D'Lo in a 3 team deal sending KJ + a couple 1st's (Chicago and one of our own)?
    Sounds like some wishful thinking from the LA papers. Unless ATL’s front office is even dumber than we think, they have no incentive to do a deal like this - as all it does it play squarely into our hands and push their rebuild out to the future when the LAL picks convey.

    If Atlanta is going to trade Trae, there are really only two possible scenarios: 1) to us for their picks back or 2) in a deal that they think makes them better (thus lessening the value of those ATL picks we hold). I don’t see how DLo + Reaves could be seen by anyone as a package that makes ATL better.

  9. #484
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    Sounds like some wishful thinking from the LA papers. Unless ATL’s front office is even dumber than we think, they have no incentive to do a deal like this - as all it does it play squarely into our hands and push their rebuild out to the future when the LAL picks convey.

    If Atlanta is going to trade Trae, there are really only two possible scenarios: 1) to us for their picks back or 2) in a deal that they think makes them better (thus lessening the value of those ATL picks we hold). I don’t see how DLo + Reaves could be seen by anyone as a package that makes ATL better.
    I watched the Lowe podcast the other day and he basically said that Trae Young doesn't move the needle for Atlanta with DJ there. They are mediocre team with both of them, and they will still be a mediocre team without one of them. So the logic behind trading one of them is (1) to get future assets and (2) changing the setup of the team in search of maybe finding something that works.

  10. #485
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    I watched the Lowe podcast the other day and he basically said that Trae Young doesn't move the needle for Atlanta with DJ there. They are mediocre team with both of them, and they will still be a mediocre team without one of them. So the logic behind trading one of them is (1) to get future assets and (2) changing the setup of the team in search of maybe finding something that works.
    Generally don’t disagree with any of that… but at least staying mediocre while adding future assets is a net gain. I could be wrong… but Trae out and DLo + Reaves in seems (to me) like it would make them worse, and that’s the one thing ATL can’t afford to do while we hold their draft future.

  11. #486
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    Generally don’t disagree with any of that… but at least staying mediocre while adding future assets is a net gain. I could be wrong… but Trae out and DLo + Reaves in seems (to me) like it would make them worse, and that’s the one thing ATL can’t afford to do while we hold their draft future.
    But that's the thing, Lowe thinks trading Trae wouldn't make the Hawks worse. The Hawks have a winning record since Trae went down, they were 7 games behind .500 with him. They went from the worst defense in the entire league to the 19th best. And that's without adding anyone else, now add Russell and Reaves instead of Trae and I don't think it's crazy to think Atlanta would be, at least, just as mediocre as they were this season.

  12. #487
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    But that's the thing, Lowe thinks trading Trae wouldn't make the Hawks worse. The Hawks have a winning record since Trae went down, they were 7 games behind .500 with him. They went from the worst defense in the entire league to the 19th best. And that's without adding anyone else, now add Russell and Reaves instead of Trae and I don't think it's crazy to think Atlanta would be, at least, just as mediocre as they were this season.
    That becomes the lynchpin of any potential deal. I don’t see it with this LAL proposal, but I also recognize Lowe is a lot smarter than me.

  13. #488
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    But that's the thing, Lowe thinks trading Trae wouldn't make the Hawks worse. The Hawks have a winning record since Trae went down, they were 7 games behind .500 with him. They went from the worst defense in the entire league to the 19th best. And that's without adding anyone else, now add Russell and Reaves instead of Trae and I don't think it's crazy to think Atlanta would be, at least, just as mediocre as they were this season.
    I think that's the thing. Trae is an all-star, but doesn't make his team better... it's a hard concept for alot of people to grasp and is also why he ultimately doesn't wind up here..

  14. #489
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    Trae for KAT makes the most sense for both teams on the court but with Minnesota's cap situation there's no way they take on that money.

    I want no parts of Trae because the last thing I want for Wemby is for him to constantly having to wipe that little bas 's ass when he gets repeatedly beaten on the perimeter. I'd much rather have someone that could defend his position, make 3s at an above average rate and have decent to good playmaking.

    Imagine a series vs. Dallas with Trae, they would constantly put him in the pick and roll to get him on Luka and then we'd be screwed.

  15. #490
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    Trae for KAT makes the most sense for both teams on the court but with Minnesota's cap situation there's no way they take on that money.

    I want no parts of Trae because the last thing I want for Wemby is for him to constantly having to wipe that little bas 's ass when he gets repeatedly beaten on the perimeter. I'd much rather have someone that could defend his position, make 3s at an above average rate and have decent to good playmaking.

    Imagine a series vs. Dallas with Trae, they would constantly put him in the pick and roll to get him on Luka and then we'd be screwed.
    I agree with that but Luka averages like 33 points in the playoffs. he would get his regardless. Nobody on our team can guard Luka. It's the shooters that would kill us moreso than anything bc nobody on this team knows how to guard the 3 point line

  16. #491
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    I agree with that but Luka averages like 33 points in the playoffs. he would get his regardless. Nobody on our team can guard Luka. It's the shooters that would kill us moreso than anything bc nobody on this team knows how to guard the 3 point line
    Luka plays no defense himself!!! He’ll let Trae get 30+ back on the other end…..

  17. #492
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    Could I interest any of you in a Klay Thompson 3/60 contract?

  18. #493
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    I agree with that but Luka averages like 33 points in the playoffs. he would get his regardless. Nobody on our team can guard Luka. It's the shooters that would kill us moreso than anything bc nobody on this team knows how to guard the 3 point line
    yeah he will score no matter what. I'm more worried about switch hunting Trae, then we gotta double or help, then Luka is spraying the ball to all those three point shooters and still getting his 33.

    it isn't just Luka, its Ant, SGA, Jamal Murray, Booker.

    I just don't want Wemby constantly having to clean up because of constant blow-bys. He'll have to do that enough even with a good/decent defender at the point of attack.

  19. #494
    Veteran KobesAchilles's Avatar
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    Could I interest any of you in a Klay Thompson 3/60 contract?
    I said 3/100 tbh

  20. #495
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    He is quite clearly quoting expected points per attempt. It's wild that you can go an entire post calling someone else stupid without realizing this.

    You are wrong, of course, because you didn’t follow the discussion. Look at what I responded to, and read it carefully. I will add some emphasis to help you out.

    If that's your assumption, then your math is wrong.
    Probable Points (Markannen) = P(M 3 pt %)*3 = .38*3 = .114, yep.
    but
    Probable Points (Wemby) = P(W within 3 ft %)*P(successful pass, M to W)*2 = .73*(X)*2

    If X is <.781, the team is better off if Markannen shoots...

    See where it says “Probable Points?” That is what HE wrote. And then he calculated Markkanen would probably score 0.114 points.

    Do you find that probable? Do you? It’s stupid.

    He “quite clearly” did not write anything about “expected points per attempt.” That is nothing but your own whole-cloth fabrication. His words explicitly state otherwise.

    He was talking points, dude. He explicitly stated so.

    If you think he shouldn’t have done that, and should have done something else instead, you need to tell it to him.

    I’ll tell you another thing that’s stupid. It’s stupid to jump into something you haven’t followed carefully enough to even know what’s being discussed. That is stupid behavior.

    It’s nice that you want to help. Go tell him your opinion of what he should have done, instead of doing what he did.

  21. #496
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    Dumb and loud is a lousy way for Jeff to go through life...

    I've tried to explain the probability math and where he went wrong to him; but it's not working, and I'm not going to waste more of my time on it.

    In your own explicit words, you calculated that the player would score 0.114 points. That was stupid, kiddo. And you made the same kind of mistake twice.

    Stupid and uncorrectable is a lousy way to go through life, kiddo. Be honest enough to face up to your blunders when they happen. However uncomfortable it may be, you’ll be better off.

  22. #497
    Body Of Work Mr. Body's Avatar
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    I think that's the thing. Trae is an all-star, but doesn't make his team better... it's a hard concept for alot of people to grasp and is also why he ultimately doesn't wind up here..
    Atlanta is much better without Young. Much. Now, the ATL owners like money and he seems to bring in fans, but is it worth it? The right play is to get rid of him. Unless there's a body snatchers situation, there's no way the Spurs would buy into a Young trade.

  23. #498
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    Injuries / age would have me lower my price. 20 per is decent I’m thinking

  24. #499
    Costly Mistakes JPB's Avatar
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    I actually beleive ATL being better (small simple size alert) without trae is a good things in two different ways:

    - It lowers his value in a trade.

    - spurs don't need a superstar or dominant player next to Wemby who would fight for the alpha role (like Luka probably would). They need a great PG who can shoot the 3, pass and throw lobs, three things Trae is elite at.

    What's happening in ATL might make Trae understand he'll never be a top dog in a contender, and accept to be Wemby's sidekcik or 1B, and a shot at contending for the rest of his prime (which he's not getting in LA). He'd still got his stats, don't get me wrong, specially with teams double/triple teamming Vic.

    No other player in the NBA could contest Wemby as spurs' franchise player, there's no ambiguities and Trae could actually be perfect, as a great but not superstar PG who fits spurs needs. Defense is an issue but there's that big fella in the paint, then find 2024 Bruce Bowen and another 3&D SG/wing if you can.

  25. #500
    BOlieve manufan10's Avatar
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    I watched the Lowe podcast the other day and he basically said that Trae Young doesn't move the needle for Atlanta with DJ there. They are mediocre team with both of them, and they will still be a mediocre team without one of them. So the logic behind trading one of them is (1) to get future assets and (2) changing the setup of the team in search of maybe finding something that works.

    Here's the podcast for those who haven't seen it yet:


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