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I want Toronto to lose but not to the point they end up with a top 6
Pick
Huh? Toronto is failing pretty hard right now and is at legit risk of having a top 6 pick. I hope they start winning again, but I don't get why people are assuming the Spurs are getting a late-lottery pick right now. It's still not out of the question SA finishes with a better record than them if the Spurs make the short-sighted deal some want them to.
Last edited by Chinook; 01-11-2024 at 05:09 PM.
I want Toronto to lose but not to the point they end up with a top 6
Pick
Exactly
I think TOR is doing a soft rebuild. They have a great piece in Barnes surrounded by productive players they can use or trade. I don't think Quickley/Barrett move the needle much this year, but it moves on from Anunoby, who was going to be extremely expensive if he stayed, and we'll probably see Siakam, an expiring, moved for, say, Kuminga and Moody. I expect they want the TOR pick to go this year and not have to worry about it. Also opens up trading future FRPs (I believe).
That's not a 'win now' team, but it's not a tear down. It does give them multiple young players who are still growing and, tbh, is a pretty smooth soft rebuild.
The Raptors almost certainly will finish with a better record than the current bottom 4 (Pistons, Spurs, Wizards, Hornets) and they're 5 wins ahead of Portland who also is either incapable or unwilling to win. If the Grizzlies pull the plug then the Raptors will need to tank hard and fast to try and get the 5th or 6th worst record.
If they do get the 6th worst record, there's still only a 45.8% chance they get to keep the pick, and 63.9% if they have the 5th worst record.
It's actually shaping up to be closet to the best case scenario for the Spurs (at least at this point in the season), where they get a high percentage shot at a pick in the 7-9 range.
We might also see Atlanta tear things down so they can get one last high pick before the Spurs take control of their draft through 2027, and imo the Warriors are a darkhorse pick to tank late.
Edit: two more things: the Raptors have an expected record of 18-20 based on point differential, and if they keep playing the rest of the season like they have so far they won't finish anywhere close to the bottom 6 records; also they have had the 11th easiest schedule so far so that will work in their favor if they want to tank.
They're the East version of the Warriors. The national media is forever either trying to fix them or proclaim them fixed virtually everytime they string together back to back wins.
If you follow the highest profile "insiders" on Twitter/X or listen to any of their podcasts, see how much content is produced about them and how slanted the tone is, while they pretend half the league doesn't exist.
Not necessarily. Sometimes the point differential and expected record don't more or less even out in the end.
The league will be caught between a rock and a hard place: Either help their most hyped prospect in 20 years or help their buddies (the Knicks didn't want Silver adjudicating their legal dispute with them because he's known to be friends/mentee of their majority owner Tannenbaum, as well as Ujiri and their GM Wagner, who came from the league office).
Last edited by TD 21; 01-11-2024 at 05:45 PM.
It’ll be close for sure, but it’s just as likely to be the “best case” scenario of landing at 7.
The Memphis situation has to help.
Toronto has a better record in their last 10 games than everyone below them except for Memphis who just lost Ja and is now going to tank. It's going to take a herculean effort to out tank those team. They might get lucky with the ping pong balls though..
My Lort i just saw the Portland vs Oklahoma game you all think we suck I can’t remember the last time I have watched a team get beaten by 62 point!!
That same Portland team beat us, we do suck
Again, folks are uber-confident that the Raptors are going to give their pick, but Toronto is currently in the six slot and are continuing their free fall. The Siakam trade is definitely rebuilding rather than reloading. At this point, the Spurs have to hope for a Young trade so the Hawks can start playing catch-up.
Realistically its Toronto or Memphis at 6 and 7 and a ping pong ball will decide it.
I don't know. Toronto's roster is awful. I'm not convinced they don't find a way to pass Portland.
It's bad, but I don't think it's Portland bad. Portland will also move Brogdon and get worse.
I think it’s a good bet it conveys on records. ATL, MEM, BKN, and TOR are all within a game of each other. They are the next tranche after the Miserable 5. And the distance between them and the TOR tranche is currently about 6 games. Memphis is poised to tank now, and ATL could also change on a dime.
Toronto could look pretty decent with a Quickly, Mathurin, Barret, Barnes, Jakob line up.
Tbf I don't think anyone has illusions about the pick. Right now they're tied for 6th worst and appear categorically worse than Chicago, Atlanta, Golden State, and possibly Brooklyn, who are all just above them in the suck-rankings. Even if they hover in that range, though, they only have around a 34% chance of a top 4 pick. Even with the 6th worst record, they have around a 57% chance of dropping to 7 or worse (no chance of landing at 5).
https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
I feel like they're doing a soft reload with getting Quickley and trying for something with Siakam. The loss of Poeltl is really hurting. Regardless, the chances of the pick conveying are still in the 'likely' category. Still, I don't even mind losing it this year. The Raptors would have to fend us off for two more years at the 1-6 protection at pretty similar odds; they're not going to bottom out. My feeling is they'd rather just cough the pick up this year and move on.
They lost Poodle for a couple of weeks so not having them is what is hurting them once he comes back I can see them make a push for play in
Solution: Include it in the Murray proposal and we won't have to concern ourselves with it anymore.
They're not getting Mathurin (or Walker). They're supposedly getting Brown Jr., "other salaries" (aka players with minimal value) and 3 1sts.
Last edited by TD 21; 01-17-2024 at 12:25 AM.
supposedly the failure to include mathurin/walker is the reason theres no deal yet despite the reports
dont know who the from what team would leak the details of the trade framework if the deal was not imminent
Masai always trying to squeeze blood from a stoneSiakams camp has put it out there he won't give any verbal agreement to resign with any team besides Toronto. Dude could essentially be a half year rental and he wants Mathurin and multiple picks in return?
Spurs gifting the Raps Kawhi on 2018 completely made this guy's career imo. Dude is a very overrated GM
Siakam was likely looking for his fifth year on the extension by those comments, which is what a team he's traded to can offer. Apparently his agent's other big name is Nembhard on the Pacers. I think everyone expects he'd resign there.
I see from Toronto's POV that they need someone to soften the rebuild. I would send Jarace Walker and be very happy to get it done.
It's been long speculated that Siakam will head to Philly this offseason, as they are a contender with the most cap space. Surely that must weigh on every potential suitors mind.
Siakam is gone. Say goodbye to the Raptors pick this year
To Raptors: Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, 3 FRPs, Kira Lewis (from NOP)
To Pacers: Pascal Siakam
To Pelicans: ???
NOP saves $18MM and gets under the tax by participating in this deal
If I were TOR, I would have rather insisted on Mathurin or Walker and one less FRP, but that's just me.
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