2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[Ariel]

EDIT: Time has apparently been changed from 8:30 PM ET to 3 PM ET, can't change the thread le so hope this helps.

When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)

We're entering the week before the lottery (next Sunday, May 12 2024) and since I had some free time today I ran some numbers on it and figured I'd share.

Official Site: https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

BASIC BREAKDOWN
Spurs will have 1-2 picks: their own (1-9) and (maybe) Toronto's (1-4 and 6-10 but only conveys if 7-10). There are 4 basic scenarios:

1. Spurs get 1 pick: 45.85%. 2 sub-scenarios:
   
   1. only pick (own) comes at 1-4: 19.39%
   2. only pick (own) comes at 5-9: 26.46%
   
   
2. Spurs get 2 picks: 54.15%. 2 sub-scenarios:
   
   1. own pick comes at 1-4: 22.72%. Toronto's pick will come anywhere 7-10.
   2. own pick comes at 5-9: 31.42%. Picks must ALWAYS be consecutive: 6 & 7 (14.29%), 7 & 8 (13.86%), 8 & 9 (3.12%) or 9 & 10 (0.15%).

COMBINATIONS BETWEEN SPURS AND TORONTO'S PICKS

• Given the Spurs and Toronto's seeding (5h and 6th) there are only 49 valid pick combinations between them, 16 of which give the Spurs 2 picks (54.15%) while 33 give the Spurs 1 pick (45.75%). The remaining combinations can't happen per lottery rules, like 5 & 7, 6 & 9, 8 & 7 (as in Spurs pick falling at 8th and Toronto's at 7th), etc.
• Top 2 most likely combinations are 6 & 7 (14.29%) and 7 & 8 (13.86%). Together they account for 28.15%, which is more than the bottom 31 valid combinations put together (28.13%).
• Top 6 most likely combinations together account for 43.63% and have the Toronto pick conveying, while the top 8 combinations together account for more than 50.21% and all of them include the 7th pick (either via the Spurs or Toronto).

PICKS DISTRIBUTION

• If Toronto's pick conveys it must be that: a) Spurs own pick is top 4 (41.97%) or b) both picks must be consecutive (58.03%). Beware: these percentages are relative to the times the Toronto pick conveys only, so they'd be lower overall.
• The possible scenarios with 2 consecutive picks are: 6 & 7 (14.29%), 7 & 8 (13.86%), 8 & 9 (3.12%) or 9 & 10 (0.15%), adding up to 31.42%.
• Spurs cannot have 2 picks if their own comes at 5, because that would mean Toronto's pick must be 6 which falls within the protected range.

WHERE TO FOCUS

• Most likely ranges where the Spurs could have a pick are:
  
  • 1-6: 63.96% (only the Spurs own pick)
  • 7-8: 71.87% (own or Toronto's). Odds at getting a 7th pick are at 56.51%
  • 9-10: 4.3% (own or Toronto's)
  
  
• Thus, ending up with a 7th pick is more likely than not, and almost as likely as the entire 1-6 range. If we include the 7-8 range, chances of falling inside go up to 71.87%, so prospects projected to be available at 7/8 are good targets to scout.
• Note that percentages do not add to 100% because they can overlap: if Spurs land 6 and Toronto 7, there's a pick in both 1-6 and 7-8 ranges.

BEWARE WHAT YOU WISH FOR (or not so much)

• "More picks" vs "a higher pick": Spurs picking top 4 negatively affects the chances of having 2 picks (Toronto's pick conveying) but only slightly: by -0.3274%.
• Conversely, having 2 picks (Toronto's pick conveying) negatively affects the chances of the Spurs picking top 4 but slightly: by -0.3214%.
• So if you wanted one of the two scenarios but wondered how it affected the other, don't fret over it: they're almost independent events.

READING LIVE LOTTERY RESULTS

• Reveal is down from 14 to 1. The earliest Toronto can appear is 10, and the Spurs 9.
• Every reveal that skips team respective to ther seeding implies that team jumped into the top 4, which reduces the chances of the Spurs also jumping into top 4, but increases the chances of the Toronto pick conveying.
• From 10 to 7, if Toronto is revealed before the Spurs, then Spurs will be next or else it means they jumped into top 4. So if Toronto comes at 9 then the Spurs are next at 8 or else they'll be in the top 4.
• If Spurs are revealed before Toronto, the latter jumped into top 4 and the pick won't convey in this draft.
• Odds change depending on the actual lottery order, but if Spurs get into the top 4 their chances at each spot are roughly flat.

FOR GEEKS
Joint distribution for both Spurs and Toronto's pick, as a table and as a list. Note that the tables DO NOT represent the same as that of Tankathon; here row number represents the final (post lottery) pick for the Spurs and column for Toronto's, and the resulting cell (intersection of row and column) contains the probability of that scenario happening.

Joint distribution for Spurs (rows) and Toronto (columns) as a table:


Joint distribution for Spurs and Toronto as a list:


FOR IMPATIENT GEEKS
Same as above, but lumping together scenarios Toronto pick doesn't convey (1-6)

Joint distribution (simplified) for Spurs (rows) and Toronto (columns) as a table:


Joint distribution (simplified) for Spurs and Toronto as a list:


TL;DR
Took some time to delve into the lottery odds, pick 7 is more likely than not and 7/8 is upwards of 70% so that is a good range to look for available prospects in mocks. Getting 2 consecutive picks at 6 or lower is a distinct possibility, and landing a top 4 pick barely affects the chances of having 2 picks (i.e., the Toronto pick conveying).

[heyheymymy]

Thanks OP nice work

[JPB]

And now we all argue on how probability works.

[heyheymymy]

Something like #3 and #7 would be choice but still not sure where I want to fall or how I want it to all play out

[Bruno]

Nice work.
Another consequence of the lottery will be the amount of cap space Spurs will have.

Let's say Spurs keep Champagnie, waive Graham + Bassey and renounce their FAs:
- If they are lucky in the lottery and get #1 + #7, they will have about $15.5M in cap space.
- If they are unlucky and get only #7, they will have about $27M in cap space.

I rather see Spurs getting that Raptors pick because this draft isn't that weak in the #7 to #10 range and because they have a lot of first round picks in 2025, but I fear Spurs basically do basically nothing else this summer if they got it. Spurs' offseason plan could just be at a PG and a SF with the two top10 picks they'll have.

[couchman]

This is so good! Thanks

Don’t overthink it y’all!
#1 and #7 picks are ideal but we’ll see what the basketball gods have for us

[heyheymymy]

, looks like 3 and 7 are the tenth most likely outcome

6 & 7 here we go!

[heyheymymy]

the cool thing is that the two most probable outcomes involve TOR conveying the best max value pick possible and the second best max value pick possible

[buttsR4rebounding]

As I have been looking at the 2025 draft more and realize (at least for now how deep it is) I am now solidly in the camp of not wanting the Toronto pick to convey. I think the 12-15 pick next year likely conveys more value at a cheaper price than the 7-10 pick this year. I would hope the Spurs own pick is as high as possible only to make it more attractive as trade bait for DJM. If that trade could happen without giving up Atl 25 I’d be all over it. I also don’t see anyone Atlanta might draft contributing enough year 1 to move the needle for them.

[Rubberducky]

I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.

[JPB]

Nice work.
Another consequence of the lottery will be the amount of cap space Spurs will have.

Let's say Spurs keep Champagnie, waive Graham + Bassey and renounce their FAs:
- If they are lucky in the lottery and get #1 + #7, they will have about $15.5M in cap space.
- If they are unlucky and get only #7, they will have about $27M in cap space.

I rather see Spurs getting that Raptors pick because this draft isn't that weak in the #7 to #10 range and because they have a lot of first round picks in 2025, but I fear Spurs basically do basically nothing else this summer if they got it. Spurs' offseason plan could just be at a PG and a SF with the two top10 picks they'll have.

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.

[Rosewood]

Great read! Nice post.

[manufan10]

[onechance87]

we need raptors pick to convey this year.I see raptors tanking for the next few years.

[John B]

Thanks OP. I’d be greedy and hope for #1 and #7 pick. Let’s go!!!!!

[montgod]

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.

I think it will be a mix of 1 & 2. For this weak of a draft, especially to possibly get two high draft picks, I can't see them standing pat and just picking who is their BPA unless the FO see something special in who's available. Part of me feels like Spurs will look at this draft as bargaining chips for additional '25 draft picks or other player acquisition(s) who are already in the NBA - salary dump options or true prospects that fit with the Spurs.

[scott]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.

[scott]

On a more serious note, thank you for this Ariel, great work!

[SOMA Spur]

Thought this was funny. Vecenie just ran his 3rd Mock. He wanted to include the Raptors in the discussion, so prior to the pod he kept rolling the Tankathon until the Raptors kept their pick. It took him 8 tries before they kept it. ...oh and really great stuff OP.

[JPB]

9:01 PM Spurs pick Josh Primo

[Ariel]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.

I was mostly interested in how Spurs' pick outcomes affected Toronto's pick and viceversa, since single pick odds can be easily obtained through Tankathon's tables and any simulation would just return that, but the odds for two lottery picks combined aren't independent so can't be obtained multiplying the odds for each pick (combinations 6&7 and 7&8 are wildly different, for instance, and they're significant because they account for a bulk of the chances). It's a curiosity more than anything, but wanted to get a real sense of how likely it is to get any given rannge of picks (1-6 can only come from the Spurs so they're the same as Tankathon's, but 7-10 are not since they can come from either team) or how to interpret the reveal as it happens, but even then I have no idea what I prefer so it doesn't make much of a difference

[Ariel]

That'll be interesting, and a defining moment for the franchise, to see if Wemby can change spurs philosophy.

1. Whether they consider Wemby is way ahead of the curve (potential top 5-10 next year and DPOTY) and then act as if next was actually year 3-4 in the process by making moves to help the Alien.

2. Whether they treat Vic like your random rook, still beleive the current roster is gonna take that next step, then keep the long term "process" going, by just adding rookies to a group of role players and 3rd stringers next year...

Personnaly, it's OK, I saw what Victor can do and who he will be in this league this past year... I'm not gonna watch the spurs lose another season trying to develop a bunch of rooks or fringe NBA players in meaningless games and a losing season around Wemby next year.

Nobody wants the Spurs to go the route of Detroit, but I'd hate to ruin 5+ years of greatness for an immediate couple of first round exits. don't think the franchise does either as they're certainly not stupid and surely realize this would damage Wemby's long term future on the Spurs, the debate is IMO whether to put the foot on the gas right now, midway through next season, or once it's finished.

[scott]

I was mostly interested in how Spurs' pick outcomes affected Toronto's pick and viceversa, since single pick odds can be easily obtained through Tankathon's tables and any simulation would just return that, but the odds for two lottery picks combined aren't independent so can't be obtained multiplying the odds for each pick (combinations 6&7 and 7&8 are wildly different, for instance, and they're significant because they account for a bulk of the chances). It's a curiosity more than anything, but wanted to get a real sense of how likely it is to get any given rannge of picks (1-6 can only come from the Spurs so they're the same as Tankathon's, but 7-10 are not since they can come from either team) or how to interpret the reveal as it happens, but even then I have no idea what I prefer so it doesn't make much of a difference

Your work is awesome. My 100,000 simulations post was a joking reference to a Tweet last year were someone ran 10,000 simulations to see how many times the Spurs got the #1 pick... and predictably, the outcome was just the easy-to-find lottery odds.

Just some fun on how some people really don't understand probability at all.

I really appreciate you putting the work in above - it's really good stuff and helps lay out the interdependence of the SA and TOR picks and helps eliminate some confusion some folks have. Of course, some people will continue to be confused (like the confusing "most probably" with "likely", which I see a lot).

Thanks again!

[scott]

Nobody wants the Spurs to go the route of Detroit, but I'd hate to ruin 5+ years of greatness for an immediate couple of first round exits. don't think the franchise does either as they're certainly not stupid and surely realize this would damage Wemby's long term future on the Spurs, the debate is IMO whether to put the foot on the gas right now, midway through next season, or once it's finished.

I'm biased, but I still think my approach in the "Call your Ideal Offseason" thread (Post #1) is best

[Kevin]

My realistic dream scenario would be the third overall pick while rolling the dice on the Raps pick in a stronger draft class.