Expectations for Victor Wembanyama's First Season

[Mr. Body]

no, it's not
Kobe and Garnett did not play at the pro level, but were drafted after school
in addition, they were not selected with 1 pick
since 2008, only Davis, Bennett and Fultz have scored less than 16 points (Simmons had 15.8)

Doncic played professionally and scored 21.2 points per game as a 19 year-old rookie.

[jjspur]

You're pretty close to what I was thinking. I'll say he gets about 14 points per game, about 8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. A lot of people have him averaging 20 plus points and that's not going to happen unless he gets about 30 minutes per game every game. Pop will not let his new favorite player play that many minutes. Call it load management or fear of him getting injured, I just think they will initially limit his minutes until they are comfortable he can handle it. That will limit his scoring and rebounding and blocks not his lack of skill or experience.

The 24-25 season will be a different story though.

[exstatic]

You're pretty close to what I was thinking. I'll say he gets about 14 points per game, about 8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks. A lot of people have him averaging 20 plus points and that's not going to happen unless he gets about 30 minutes per game every game. Pop will not let his new favorite player play that many minutes. Call it load management or fear of him getting injured, I just think they will initially limit his minutes until they are comfortable he can handle it. That will limit his scoring and rebounding and blocks not his lack of skill or experience.

The 24-25 season will be a different story though.

Will it? He would be coming off a full NBA season, and a summer of Olympic bball. He'll be more rested going into this season than next.

BTW, if anyone isn't picking 20+ ppg, they're doing it wrong. Two things: Doncic saying it's so much easier to score in the NBA, and he's going to get like 8-10 points just on putbacks.

[CorrectCrusader]

Will it? He would be coming off a full NBA season, and a summer of Olympic bball. He'll be more rested going into this season than next.

BTW, if anyone isn't picking 20+ ppg, they're doing it wrong. Two things: Doncic saying it's so much easier to score in the NBA, and he's going to get like 8-10 points just on putbacks.

I agree with this take, and I think Vic is gonna be getting a ton of free throw attempts.

[tesseractive]

6) A huge year for someone else who really capitalizes on Wemby's gravity (how about Tre or Bran)

This. Other players are going to look better playing with Victor.

[itzsoweezee]

Around 5 blks and 20 points. He’s not going to have a bad season. Maybe a bad month, but he’s too skilled and too focused to be bad all year. Look at his body of work over the last year. He ran into some adversity at times, but he always overcame it.

This guy’s going to be really good. I’m excited.

[exstatic]

This. Other players are going to look better playing with Victor.

I fully expect Keldon to return to 40% 3 point shooting. Vassell will probably join that club for the first time, maybe Malaki, too.

[scott]

I fully expect Keldon to return to 40% 3 point shooting. Vassell will probably join that club for the first time, maybe Malaki, too.

I'd be happy with all of them around 38% if it came with some significant volume, which Wemby should facilitate. This year is going to be fun!

[ambchang]

Around 5 blks and 20 points. He’s not going to have a bad season. Maybe a bad month, but he’s too skilled and too focused to be bad all year. Look at his body of work over the last year. He ran into some adversity at times, but he always overcame it.

This guy’s going to be really good. I’m excited.

There was only one time in nba history where some one averaged over 5blks per game and that was eaton with 5.56. Manute Bol came close once with 4.96. No way will wemby average 5 a game in his rookie season in todays nba where there are less blocking opportunities in the paint.

[jjspur]

Will it? He would be coming off a full NBA season, and a summer of Olympic bball. He'll be more rested going into this season than next.

BTW, if anyone isn't picking 20+ ppg, they're doing it wrong. Two things: Doncic saying it's so much easier to score in the NBA, and he's going to get like 8-10 points just on putbacks.

I'm not saying he's incapable of averaging that many points and rebounds, I'm simply saying that he won't average a lot of minutes to do all that. Pop will just be cautious with Wemby's playing time this first year. After Wemby has a year of real NBA experience under his belt, Pop will probably be less restrictive with his minutes, allowing Wemby to score and rebound more. The vast majority of NBA rookies need time to adjust to the level of NBA compe ion. Wemby may be a generational talent, but even he will need some time to adjust. I fully expect him to be better in his second year.

Everybody calm down, he hasn't played a real NBA game yet, we are all just guessing. After he plays part of the season we'll generally know what he can do this year and then going into next season.

[couchman]

16 pts
8 rb
3 blk

[buttsR4rebounding]

An area I think most people are underestimating is steals and deflections. I have been very impressed by how well he plays bounce passes. His crazy wingspan makes it difficult to throw a bounce pass by him. I expect him to be top 10 in the league in steals and possibly lead it in deflections. I also believe he will lead the Spurs in minutes played. Pop is going to cede to Wemby’s playing time/games played wishes until Wemby shows he can’t handle it.

[Old School 44]

20 pts
12 rbs
4 blks
4 assts
2 stls
30-35 minutes per game
zero load management

[daslicer]

16-10-3

[DPG21920]

I’m going to assume 30-32 MPG

18 points
8 rebounds
3 assists
3 blocks
1 steal
44% FG
30% 3PT
75% FT

If his FG or FT is better then 20 PPG

[Maddog]

16
10
3.5 blocks

[J_Paco]

I think Wemby will have a better rookie season than Olden Polynice and Shawn Bradley.

[The Truth #6]

4 HEB commercials
7 murals across town
1 awkward Ancira Volkswagen commercial

[tonight...you]

4 HEB commercials
7 murals across town
1 awkward Ancira Volkswagen commercial

@ #3.
I can't wait to see that one!

[barakz21]

Was there any recent lottery pick who led their teams to the playoffs during their rookie season? I might be wrong, but pretty sure Melo did (iirc Bron won ROY, and Melo said something like Bron can have ROY, he’ll take the playoffs. I can’t seem to remember if someone after him did it. Or if someone else did it before him.

[buttsR4rebounding]

Was there any recent lottery pick who led their teams to the playoffs during their rookie season? I might be wrong, but pretty sure Melo did (iirc Bron won ROY, and Melo said something like Bron can have ROY, he’ll take the playoffs. I can’t seem to remember if someone after him did it. Or if someone else did it before him.

James Wiseman

[Knoxxx]

28 PPG
12 REB
4 BLK
3 AST

[exstatic]

Was there any recent lottery pick who led their teams to the playoffs during their rookie season? I might be wrong, but pretty sure Melo did (iirc Bron won ROY, and Melo said something like Bron can have ROY, he’ll take the playoffs. I can’t seem to remember if someone after him did it. Or if someone else did it before him.

LeBron/Melo were from the 2003 draft, not exactly recent.

[ambchang]

For reference Lebron, the best teenager who ever played in the nba, averaged 21/5.9/5.5 his rookie season.
Doncic, the best European rookie, averaged 21.2/6/7.8.

I doubt wemby will exceed these numbers in his rookie season. Something like 18/3/8 plus 2 blks would be a smashing success.

[exstatic]

For reference Lebron, the best teenager who ever played in the nba, averaged 21/5.9/5.5 his rookie season.
Doncic, the best European rookie, averaged 21.2/6/7.8.

I doubt wemby will exceed these numbers in his rookie season. Something like 18/3/8 plus 2 blks would be a smashing success.

I would consider 2 blocks a failure, unless he's playing 20 or fewer minutes.