2023 NBA Free Agency Thread - June 30 @ 5 pm CDT

[mo7888]

Again, prefacing that I'm not an Austin Reaves expert and I'm only being sold on the idea of Reaves based on stats, seeing a few games, and the opinions shared here on ST... but what I like about the idea of adding Reaves at 4/100 (and giving Devin 4/100) is that it gives us a young core of Dev/Keldon/Sochan/Reaves/Bran around Wemby in addition to a bevvy of FRPs coming up.

It would seem given where the cap is going that 4/100 isn't a killer contract. We all seem to like Keldon's 4/80, despite Keldon having a lower ceiling than Dev (and maybe Reaves?). It's like Herro's 4/120 or Duncan Robinson's 4/90 we are talking about here.

From my amateur POV, it seems like Reaves could be a nice addition to our young roster while still not hampering our ability to find that second star via the draft or via trade (using all that draft capital). In fact, Reaves (or Keldon or an extended Devin) might be helpful in a situation where we want to couple them with picks to trade for that second star.

Your last paragraph is spot on... in a year or two you package two of them with draft picks and bring in that 2nd star... its about ac ulating talent that works with Wemby....

The only hitch in it is that if we offer $100M/4 LA will match it within 24 hours next week when the moratorium ends.

[BacktoBasics]

I mean 4/100 isn't insane money for your 2-4th best players on a team (aka starters) so I am not sure why were acting like it's bonkers money.

Because he’s more like your 7th man 6th in a perfect world and he just spent the bulk of a season as an 8-9th man on a team that had injuries.

This guy did not have a break out season. He had a killer post season and pedestrian regular season.

[scott]

With FVV inked, are we the only team that can offer him die ~$100?

Rockets still have room to do 4/100 as well.

[mo7888]

I may regret saying this one day but the Reaves idea is gross to me, the spurs have said over and over how they don’t want to skip any steps or make costly long term decisions. Im out on him for now.

No...they said they wanted to avoid costly long term mistakes....if they make this offer then they obviously don't see it as a mistake.

[BacktoBasics]

I would say you should look at his splits. He didn't just fill in, he excelled as his usage went up. Especially in the playoffs. If you want stats, I'll say 17/6/3 with around 40per from 3.

Thanks for owning it. I took a screenshot so we can reflect later. I don’t disagree that his post season was outstanding. I’m not big on the market being set after one great postseason.

[scott]

Your last paragraph is spot on... in a year or two you package two of them with draft picks and bring in that 2nd star... its about ac ulating talent that works with Wemby....

The only hitch in it is that if we offer $100M/4 LA will match it within 24 hours next week when the moratorium ends.

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I'm hoping the way it gets backloaded for LA would be the deterrent to their matching.

But if the are DEFINITELY gonna match... then we almost have to do this out of principle. Can't let LA get him for a 50% discount.

[MannyIsGod]

Because he’s more like your 7th man 6th in a perfect world and he just spent the bulk of a season as an 8-9th man on a team that had injuries.

This guy did not have a break out season. He had a killer post season and pedestrian regular season.

Yeah dude sorry but thinking he's a 7th man is just an awful take. Nothing about Reeves says flash in the pan.

[MannyIsGod]

Thanks for owning it. I took a screenshot so we can reflect later. I don’t disagree that his post season was outstanding. I’m not big on the market being set after one great postseason.

Ok now back to the 30 mpg bet so I can make easy money. How much?

[BacktoBasics]

Yeah dude sorry but thinking he's a 7th man is just an awful take. Nothing about Reeves says flash in the pan.

I certainly don’t think he’s a flash in the pan. I just don’t see a 34mpg 17-19ppg starter.

[Mr. Body]

Contract year player. Outsized leap in production in limited cir stances. Jerome James.

[Seventyniner]

I mean 4/100 isn't insane money for your 2-4th best players on a team (aka starters) so I am not sure why were acting like it's bonkers money.

It's a rare form of the money illusion.

oMg It'S nInE fIgUrEs

The correct way to look at it is in terms of the percentage of the salary cap it takes up. A flat 4/100 deal is 18.4/16.7/15.2/13.8% of the cap. For a solid starter with upside that's not bad at all.

[BacktoBasics]

Ok now back to the 30 mpg bet so I can make easy money. How much?

Let’s keep it friendly.

I’ll bet you 200 bucks he doesn’t average 30mpg or more next season.

Unless he goes to a tanking team.

So let’s say his team needs to at least sit outside of a top 10 pick next season. Reaves could be a great tank commander. So I think that stipulation is fair.

[cd98]

It would be funny if a small market team took the Lakers’ young studs for once.

[MannyIsGod]

Let’s keep it friendly.

I’ll bet you 200 bucks he doesn’t average 30mpg or more next season.

Unless he goes to a tanking team.

So let’s say his team needs to at least sit outside of a top 10 pick next season. Reaves could be a great tank commander. So I think that stipulation is fair.

Ok but instead of the draft pick stipulation let's make it contingent on us both agreeing depending on the team he signs with.

[scott]

I pulled up game logs for Reaves to try to understand his mpg and stats as the season progressed. He did miss 16 games in a row mid season, I assume for injury. He play 64 games overall.

Games 1-10: 10 gp, 2 gs, 25 mpg, 6.8 ppg, -53
Games 11-20: 10 gp, 6 gs, 32.5 mpg, 14.9 ppg, +88
Games 21-30: 9 gp, 2 gs, 31 mpg, 8.2 ppg, +30
Games 31-40: 7 gp, 2 gs, 26.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg, +6
Games 41-50: DNP
Games 51-60: 6 gp, 0 gs, 20.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg, -21 (one of these games he only play 7 minutes and didn't score)
Games 61-70: 10 gp, 0 gs, 27.3 ppg, 15.3 ppg, +4
Games 71-80: 10 gp, 8 gs, 34 mpg, 20 ppg, +108
Games 81-82: 2 gp, 2 gs, 32.6 mpg, 17 ppg, +38

Definitely seems like he picked up the pace at the end of the year. Don't know how much of his post-injury return was hampered by that injury.

Is this guy worth 4/100? actually I have no clue, but I still kind of think so? Again, I won't pretend to be the expert at this...

[EricB]

Giving a bag to Reeves continues to be a no brainer. There’s zero downside to it.

[BacktoBasics]

Ok but instead of the draft pick stipulation let's make it contingent on us both agreeing depending on the team he signs with.

and the doubt is palpable.

That’s fine by me. I’m easy. I don’t see him averaging 30mpg anyway. But I do want to point out that if he’s truly a great great great player averaging 30mpg and 17-19ppg on 40% 3pt he’s not supposed to lead a team to the bottom 10.

We also at least need a minimum number of games played.

This guy starting for the Rockets and blowing out a knee would be a clear exception.

[BacktoBasics]

I pulled up game logs for Reaves to try to understand his mpg and stats as the season progressed. He did miss 16 games in a row mid season, I assume for injury. He play 64 games overall.

Games 1-10: 10 gp, 2 gs, 25 mpg, 6.8 ppg, -53
Games 11-20: 10 gp, 6 gs, 32.5 mpg, 14.9 ppg, +88
Games 21-30: 9 gp, 2 gs, 31 mpg, 8.2 ppg, +30
Games 31-40: 7 gp, 2 gs, 26.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg, +6
Games 41-50: DNP
Games 51-60: 6 gp, 0 gs, 20.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg, -21 (one of these games he only play 7 minutes and didn't score)
Games 61-70: 10 gp, 0 gs, 27.3 ppg, 15.3 ppg, +4
Games 71-80: 10 gp, 8 gs, 34 mpg, 20 ppg, +108
Games 81-82: 2 gp, 2 gs, 32.6 mpg, 17 ppg, +38

Definitely seems like he picked up the pace at the end of the year. Don't know how much of his post-injury return was hampered by that injury.

Is this guy worth 4/100? actually I have no clue, but I still kind of think so? Again, I won't pretend to be the expert at this...

This is a good look. Nice post.

[Chinook]

I pulled up game logs for Reaves to try to understand his mpg and stats as the season progressed. He did miss 16 games in a row mid season, I assume for injury. He play 64 games overall.

Games 1-10: 10 gp, 2 gs, 25 mpg, 6.8 ppg, -53
Games 11-20: 10 gp, 6 gs, 32.5 mpg, 14.9 ppg, +88
Games 21-30: 9 gp, 2 gs, 31 mpg, 8.2 ppg, +30
Games 31-40: 7 gp, 2 gs, 26.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg, +6
Games 41-50: DNP
Games 51-60: 6 gp, 0 gs, 20.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg, -21 (one of these games he only play 7 minutes and didn't score)
Games 61-70: 10 gp, 0 gs, 27.3 ppg, 15.3 ppg, +4
Games 71-80: 10 gp, 8 gs, 34 mpg, 20 ppg, +108
Games 81-82: 2 gp, 2 gs, 32.6 mpg, 17 ppg, +38

Definitely seems like he picked up the pace at the end of the year. Don't know how much of his post-injury return was hampered by that injury.

Is this guy worth 4/100? actually I have no clue, but I still kind of think so? Again, I won't pretend to be the expert at this...

Supposedly the real difference is before and after the Westbrook trade. Before he was 10/2/3. After he was 16/3/5 with much better shooting despite getting about the same minutes. Those non-Westbrook numbers basically carried over into the playoffs. It is evidence that he isn't simply the product of being a low option.

[MannyIsGod]

and the doubt is palpable.

That’s fine by me. I’m easy. I don’t see him averaging 30mpg anyway. But I do want to point out that if he’s truly a great great great player averaging 30mpg and 17-19ppg on 40% 3pt he’s not supposed to lead a team to the bottom 10.

We also at least need a minimum number of games played.

This guy starting for the Rockets and blowing out a knee would be a clear exception.

I'm honestly worried more about 88 year old lebron and made of glass ad dying than any true tanking team signing him. Lakers could end up with a top 10 pich through no fault of reaves. I don't think there's a true chance of a tanking team signing him.

[CorrectCrusader]

Cmon Wright send Reaves the brinks truck

[scott]

Supposedly the real difference is before and after the Westbrook trade. Before he was 10/2/3. After he was 16/3/5 with much better shooting despite getting about the same minutes. Those non-Westbrook numbers basically carried over into the playoffs. It is evidence that he isn't simply the product of being a low option.

Gosh, I somehow managed to forget about the Russ era. He also missed back to back games (#30 and #31) before he went out for 16 games. I wonder if that was an initial injury that he tried to paly through before they shut him down? That whole portion by game 30-60 could have been impacted by the injury and skewed some of the stats.

[BacktoBasics]

I'm honestly worried more about 88 year old lebron and made of glass ad dying than any true tanking team signing him. Lakers could end up with a top 10 pich through no fault of reaves. I don't think there's a true chance of a tanking team signing him.

I generally agree with you on that. But dude soaking up minutes because of extenuating cir stances vs earning 30mpg on a winning team is kinda the point I’m trying to make.

My thoughts are that even with a relatively healthy team he’s not gonna bag big minutes because he’s just not that guy.

He can sign and we’ll revisit. That’s why I suggested 200 and not 2k. We can both take a shot for minimal risk.

[InRareForm]

Vassell was the better player and Reaves had the benefit of playing on a team that made a deep playoff run. This comparison is nothing more than a typical ST circlejerking fad.

Reaves didn’t have a breakout season. The pitch is that he will have one. Vassell has shown legitimate promise and progress on a team that worked to the benefit of a tank.

It’s a shortsighted comp.

Austin Reaves is this year's John Collins.

I don't see Collins being a big time go to efficient offense player in the WCF. Lebron was taking too many possession over reaves imo when they could have got a better look with AR

[BillMc]

Did anything happen with Plumlee?