I'd add that a home run swing inherently implies an attempt to land an all-star caliber player. You could look at Keldon, for example, and think he is a homerun because he FAR exceeds what you expected from the #29 pick. But in reality, that is not a homerun, because homeruns means the ball went over the fence, not merely that you got a base hit when you didn't expect one.
So, I'd call a pick like DJM a homerun (you took a swing on a player who you don't necessarily amount to anything, and you got an all-star). Keldon Johnson is a double where you expected to strike out. Josh Primo was a homerun pick. Sochan, IMO, was an example of a lottery pick where you are taking a safer route... I don't expect him to be an all-star, but I don't need him to. He was picked to be a solid contributor, not a star. If he develops into one... awesome.
next year they're going to open the offseason about 5 mil above the cap, in position to use the full MLE worth about 13 mil. if jalen green's contract disappeared, they would be 7 mil below the cap and would have access to the lesser 8 mil room exception. so jalen green's contract affects about 2 mil of spending power next year. hardly a burden. and thats the last year of his rookie deal.
But at some point, the second contract is really not related to the rookie contract, as you aren't required to pay these guys. Jalen Green's second contract will a reflection of his market value based on his performance during his rookie contract, not merely scaled to his rookie contract.
Jalen Smith is a good example of this - his performance didn't warrant that big second contract despite being a lottery pick. Mo Bamba another good example - his earnings have slid backwards as he's just not proven to be good enough for a big second contract.
We'll see this offseason at what James Wiseman commands. My guess is that the AAV of his new contract will be significantly less than the $12MM he is making this year on his rookie scale deal.
Phoenix was on the hook for a ton of money if they wanted to keep Ayton, who was picked too high at number one. They wound up picking up his contract which gave them tons of problems until they finally traded him.
Yes, but even Indy (who presumably likes him and wants him as part of their team) only gave him 3/$15, because that's all he's earned (assuming there isn't something else going on like Jalen just really wanting to live in ing Indiana).
My point is that if Jalen Green is going to cost Houston a big 2nd contract, it will be because he's earned it - not because they are forced into that situation. They can easily just let him test RFA and decide to match whatever the market dictates.
I think there’s starting to be a trend, small now but I can see it growing of just waiving guys who don’t cut the mus , no second contract at all. Killian Hayes is probably their poster child, but he’s far from the first flameout Detroit Top 10 pick.
if you want to re-sign somebody to the max contract available to him thats your prerogative. if indiana gives him a huge contract and you decide to match it, thats your prerogative. thats not being tied to his rookie deal, thats your decision that he's worth that money to keep around, after having seen him every day for the last 4 years
whether he was picked #1 or #20, the max contract available to him wouldnt have been different. tyrese maxey will wind up having the same second contract as anthony edwards despite being picked much later. haliburton already has the same deal as edwards despite being picked later
if a rookie scale contract is the worst contract a team has, then they must be doing really ing well otherwise
as i stated in my comment above, right now jalen green's contract affects houston's spending power by about 2 million. its really not a needle-mover at all
Last edited by spurraider21; 02-15-2024 at 05:46 PM.
i guess his RFA tender will be higher than it otherwise would be, but this is all small beans when it comes to cap management
I agree with Bruno about Salaun being much rawer and less polished than Risacher who is more fundamentally sound. I can see Risacher contribute, to some fashion in his rookie year already, while Salaun has much longer way to be an NBA player...
AS Bruno also said, Salaun is a very active, very energetic player, but maybe a bit too "crazy dog" sometimes, running more after the ball on both sides on the floor than anticipating or trying to read the play... Risacher has clearly a better BBIQ right now but he's still a bit too "shy" on the court, like a Boris or Batum could be, in the way they could appear a bit passive or too unselfish (that's actually how Risacher's father was too, a skilled, finesse SF a bit self-effacing at times).
Zacharie will have to learn to be more aggressive both on offense (his assist # is way too low for a player with his court vision, he should go for it instead of moving the ball too much) and more aggressive on defense (go after rebounds and steals). he tends to stick to his man.
Zach is the better shooter, which Salaun actually isn't. That's not what he would be in the NBA. Sure Salaun shoots 37% on 3 for the season, but he's extremely stricky, that's kind of all of nothing, like 4/3 or 2/3 vs. 1-9 or 0-4... His shot selection is pretty poor and he's actually shooting 38% overall for the season, notably due to bad shooting mechanics (his release is too low, that's eye popping)
I also "confirm" defense would be his best attribute in the NBA, if he can canalize his energy and learn the game, as a versatile PF who can defend bigs but also perimeter players à la Sochan. Best scenario is a defensive, stretch PF, since he still seems comfortable behind the arc in a vacuum even off the dribble...
On another note, people who would have only started watching Risacher these last 5 games would wonder who is that scrub... he's kind of hit a rookie wall, with pretty bad shooting % in the french league (but still one good game in Euro cup in between. Zach's FT% (72%) could be worrying but not that bad for a kid his age and maybe just a question of confidence.
Good discussion. The reason I considered Knecht for a late Toronto lottery pick is because I don't think they will do anything in the offseason to address upgrading the SF spot, even in the short term. That position might actually get worse next year if Cedi is gone and Cidy is likely still too raw.
I understand home run swings, but I don't think Knecht has stopped developing. He's a senior but has only played one year in D1. He is not a typical senior who has been at a big school all 4 years. And so it's an interesting conversation of when players stop developing. I think of Tatum and he's in what his 5th or 6th year and still improving.
Anyway. There are a lot of factors that will change and so if we somehow got a pick at 12, it will be an interesting decision.
For those who watch him closely, how does Knecht's game compare to Grady 's? I ask because 's archetype (not necessarily the player) seems like it would be a very good fit for this team.
IMO pretty different players, with being more of a spot-up shooter who can make cuts when the defense is napping. Knecht is an offensive focal point, coming off rolls, picks, initiating, slashing. He'll measure up his man before launching but can spot-up, too. A much more dynamic activation player. Tbh I see Knecht as more of a SG while is more clearly a SF/wing. is going to be comfortable sitting in the corner or wing while you'd want Knecht to have more of an active role.
To be clear, Knecht is three years older at draft time than was.
(The player to compare to is likely The Furph.)
for people disappointed over hyped prospects like Buzelis having down years... just look at GG Jackson right now
Thanks Mr. Body. Based on your description (and previous analysis) of Knecht, I am really drawn to him as a potential solution as a backup SG behind Devin. Sure, you want more than a projected backup out of your lottery picks, but that role is pretty important as well (as we know from watching leads evaporate once Branham enters the game). I'm still liking the idea of Knecht or Filipowski with that TOR pick (assuming it conveys in the 8-12 range)
There's a world where the Spurs pick two French players: Risacher with our pick and Keyshawn George with the TOR pick and try to mold KG into our potential point guard of the future. Not saying that will happen, but in such an uncertain draft there will be some likely "reaches" and seemingly odd moves.
Iirc, talent was never the question for him, it was his at ude. He attacked his coach on Instagram, would never pass the ball, forced his teammates to play defense for him. His efficiency was very low - not a good shooter at any level. South Carolina was extremely bad and one would suggest he was a big reason why. (They're top of the SEC this year.) His advanced metrics were horrible. Followed all that up with horrendous workouts, out of shape, was caught vaping after leaving one workout early. He's already been fined several times by the Grizzlies this year and was just suspended a game for breaking a team rule.
What he's doing right now despite all that is unprecedented.
IMO you could play Knecht and Devin together in the main unit. I mean, it hurts with rebounding but it's not like Champ is giving you much there now. Knecht won't be a great defender but he does alright. Not the best solution but possible. And probably a reason why I'm not huge on him other than his age. (I'd consider Devin more of the wing. I think Knecht may be more comfortable initiating, possibly.)
Jackson is averaging double digits in the NBA even if only getting 19 minutes a game as a 19 year old.
The Spurs could have had him at 33 or 44 but passed.
I've been lazy in draft prep this year, and there's a lot in this thread.
Has discussion focused on immediately filling needs, or getting pieces that will fit, acknowledging that there are a lot of assets coming in 2025 and beyond?
I think we have (long term)...
Wemby (duh...) / Sochan / GAP / Vassell / GAP
GAP (I wish it was Collins, but he seems off and if he can't shoot at 35% he is less useful) / GAP / Keldon / GAP / Tre
I think those are reasonable expectations of a long term rotation, with the Barlow / Branham / Wesley / Champagnie etc...potential options for depth, though entirely likely to be filled by other options in time.
For this draft, and the 2025 draft, I'd want to cover starting PG (priority 1), starting SF (priority 2), backup centre (Wemby will get lots of minutes, though 32 - 36 mpg still leaves a gap), then PF / wing depth.
I think priority 1 for me is Topic - Risacher also fills a need, though the PG primary is more important as a gap (and, whilst long term projections are always a bit ), 2025 doesn't look to have an A1 PG prospect- highest rated PG on https://nbadraftroom.com/2025-nba-mock-draft/ is at 20. There are a lot of SF (or forward generally) prospects high up (Flagg obviously at #1). Some weaknesses obviously, but I think being a huge dude at PG is super valuable, and size can compensate for quickness at PG, or allow to defend off ball against wings / tertiary perimeter players. I also doubt that any great options will turn up soon in the FA market for real impact PGs - teams don't let them go.
I think you want to get a SF with the second pick, as the starting SF option of Champagne is a bit light (though a better 3&D wing would be great). Anyone out of of Risacher, Buzelis, Holland should work there, depending on the choices of the relative importance of rim pressure, passing and shooting. I'd opt for shooting around Wemby, though I think that more passing skill throughout the roster is a big need (there's good system play, though instinct and passing ability are a team weakness).
I think getting absolutely shoot the piss out of the ball guys is valuable next to any A1 star, and Wemby definitely looks like that. That makes Reed Shepherd a really good option to me at the Toronto pick, especially if they don't get Topic.
As longer term strategy, I think next year the aim should be something like making the play in tournament. That'd be a big leap, but with internal development and 2 picks, should be doable.
After that (i.e at the 2025 draft) I think is probably closer to the time to use draft assets to upgrade. There's so much variance, though the Spurs having a bunch of immediate picks probably counts for more for a rebuilding team wanting to sell hope than uncertain future picks, and you could buy a Star with those assets whilst keeping picks for the 2026 draft onwards.
Hopefully they will be with the Atlanta picks.
Sorry but that team doesn't make the play in next year just adding 2 rookies, not even close. Many expected just that last summer and they got worth adding Wemby... They just plain suck, adding 2 unproven kids won't do anything for that...
Devin and Tre are in their 4th year, Kedlon in his fifth... Collins badly regressed and the rest are borderline NBA players. At some point you gotta stop just betting on internal development and be real about what you got. This team needs more talent and players who know how to win to hope sniffing the play in next year. Not to mention other teams can eventually (and really) improve themselves.
But who knows, maybe Wesley will hit a layup next season.
I wasn't specific (bad writing) but I think in addition to the rookie picks, they should use cap space to upgrade. I don't think all in now is sensible, but picks plus using space (or, lower tier assets to trade for actual, good / average NBA players) would be sensible.
Rough, semi realistic ideal for me would be something like: Topic and Sheppard in the early draft (2nd rounders exist, but not paying that much attention to them), sign Conley (2yr 40mil? - Overpay short), trade Collins / use remaining FA money to get a 3/4 wing (e.g, Collins +Charlotte pick or Branham for Grant, Kuzma level player - slightly overpaid 3/4 on a bad team), then another piece in a true backup centre - (e.g sign Hartenstein).
Wemby / Sochan / FA or trade wing / Vassell - Conley
Hartenstein - (bench PF X) - Keldon - Sheppard - Topic (Tre playing more early season).
With flotsam of Wesley, Barlow , Bassey / Champagnie, 2nd round picks, other FA flyers filling out the rest. Not a perfect team, though I think something like that would be a big step forward, could contend for the 10th seed and keep most assets for the future to swing later.
Spurs culture wouldn't allow it. He's a mess
The Spurs already have Dalton Knecht. His name is Devin Vassell.
That's a glowing endorsement of Knecht!
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