Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[baseline bum]

What do you mean by that?

Might need to get pick 3 or 4 to get Dillingham then grab Topic at 7? Though Topic seems like a waste if you're already getting the best guard in the class with your first pick.

[LeBowen]

I kind of agree with this. If they thought this draft was as terrible as posters here, we’d be neck and neck with Detroit. They must see enough options, with none really standing out that they’re comfortable with the 3,4,5 slots.

Pistons: off ball guards and wings should be their interest. No way they draft a point guard or a big.
Wizards: they just made a full reset, they should be fully on BPA track.
Hornets: off ball guards and bigs. Since they decided to keep Bridges and have Miller, wings shouldn't be their priority.
Blazers: wings and bigs, no way they go for another point guard.
Raptors: with the trades their made, they should be targeting bigger wings and bigs.
Memphis: fake lottery team, they'll look for bench players that are ready right away.
Utah: BPA since they haven't made a full reset yet, they'll probably blow it up in the summer.

Unless Spurs get really unlucky (and it would be about time, tbh), it should be a top5 pick.
Looking at the other teams and their needs, it's likely that Spurs will be able to pick their point guard of choice if Utah doesn't jump them.
Wizards are the only other team that needs a point guard, but they also need a big and I think they'd rather have Sarr.

[baseline bum]

Pistons: off ball guards and wings should be their interest. No way they draft a point guard or a big.
Wizards: they just made a full reset, they should be fully on BPA track.
Hornets: off ball guards and bigs. Since they decided to keep Bridges and have Miller, wings shouldn't be their priority.
Blazers: wings and bigs, no way they go for another point guard.
Raptors: with the trades their made, they should be targeting bigger wings and bigs.
Memphis: fake lottery team, they'll look for bench players that are ready right away.
Utah: BPA since they haven't made a full reset yet, they'll probably blow it up in the summer.

Unless Spurs get really unlucky (and it would be about time, tbh), it should be a top5 pick.
Looking at the other teams and their needs, it's likely that Spurs will be able to pick their point guard of choice if Utah doesn't jump them.
Wizards are the only other team that needs a point guard, but they also need a big and I think they'd rather have Sarr.

Even if the Spurs hold Portland off for fourth worst record but either pass Charlotte or lose the coin toss to them the chance they pick #6 or worse is 44.67%. If they finish third worst it's 33.02% they pick #6 or #7. If they pass Portland or tie and lose the coin toss to end up with the fifth worst record it's 55.65% they pick #6 or worse. So wouldn't have to get too unlucky to be picking #6 or lower no matter how the final games of the season shake out.

[exstatic]

What do you mean by that?

He’s a Topic hater.

[skin27]

Might need to get pick 3 or 4 to get Dillingham then grab Topic at 7? Though Topic seems like a waste if you're already getting the best guard in the class with your first pick.

I think topic is better than dillingham.

[exstatic]

I think topic is better than dillingham.

Yeah, it’s kind of lost on them that he doesn’t have to be Doncic to be far and away the best guard in this draft.

[skin27]

Yeah, it’s kind of lost on them that he doesn’t have to be Doncic to be far and away the best guard in this draft.

I just watch dillingham higlights and his not that bad. He has a jumpahot and athleticism. Either topic or dillingham is a good pick i think

[baseline bum]

He’s a Topic hater.

Because I don't think the guy who can't shoot, sucked in Euroleague, and has been pulling a Wiseman to protect his draft stock is the best guard in the draft?

[baseline bum]

Yeah, it’s kind of lost on them that he doesn’t have to be Doncic to be far and away the best guard in this draft.

The Topic stans here are the ones who keep invoking Doncic's name lol

[LeBowen]

Because I don't think the guy who can't shoot, sucked in Euroleague, and has been pulling a Wiseman to protect his draft stock is the best guard in the draft?

I fully agree.
Posted the list of European guards drafted in the lottery over the past 15 years and the only two that justified their selections were Rubio and Luka.
And both were the next big thing with ridiculous levels of hype and more importantly performances on the biggest stage backing that hype up.

If Topic didn't declare for NBA draft, most people wouldn't have heard of him.
Even if he reaches his realistic best case scenario potential, he'd still need at least three years to become a playoff worthy point guard and he'll never be anywhere close to Luka.

Much like Dirk fooled a lot of incompetent GMs into drafting European bigs that had range, Luka is fooling them into drafting European point guards.

[exstatic]

Because I don't think the guy who can't shoot, sucked in Euroleague, and has been pulling a Wiseman to protect his draft stock is the best guard in the draft?

. He played a whole game and a half in Euroleague. That’s not a small sample size, it’s a picosample.

[exstatic]

I fully agree.
Posted the list of European guards drafted in the lottery over the past 15 years and the only two that justified their selections were Rubio and Luka.
And both were the next big thing with ridiculous levels of hype and more importantly performances on the biggest stage backing that hype up.

If Topic didn't declare for NBA draft, most people wouldn't have heard of him.
Even if he reaches his realistic best case scenario potential, he'd still need at least three years to become a playoff worthy point guard and he'll never be anywhere close to Luka.

Much like Dirk fooled a lot of incompetent GMs into drafting European bigs that had range, Luka is fooling them into drafting European point guards.

It’s not that he’s European, it’s that he’s 18, and was excelling and outplaying grown men.

[baseline bum]

. He played a whole game and a half in Euroleague. That’s not a small sample size, it’s a picosample.

And was invisible. And then seems to have decided not to come back to Euroleague. I don't know how that doesn't send enormous red flags up for you. Was supposed to be out 4-6 weeks and here we are at week 14 with no return on the horizon.

[LeBowen]

It’s not that he’s European, it’s that he’s 18, and was excelling and outplaying grown men.

In a weak league and playing for a team that's owned by an agency and it's only purpose is to showcase young talent.

[exstatic]

In a weak league and playing for a team that's owned by an agency and it's only purpose is to showcase young talent.

And wasn’t he showcased well! Here’s the deal. Showcasing is just putting the ball in his hands. He still has to play well.

[baseline bum]

And wasn’t he showcased well! Here’s the deal. Showcasing is just putting the ball in his hands. He still has to play well.

Which he didn't once he got to a good league. And then he just shut his season down. Or even worse his knee is screwed.

[LeBowen]

And wasn’t he showcased well! Here’s the deal. Showcasing is just putting the ball in his hands. He still has to play well.

Post #2888 in 2024 Draft topic.
Copy/paste:

The more I think about it, the less I want Topic.
Not even with the Raptors pick.

First of all, anyone who mentions Topic in the same sentence as Doncic is instantly irrelevant.
It's like comparing Tony with Killian Hayes just because they're both French point guards.

While we do need playmaking, our perimeter defense and floor spacing needs are as just as bad.
Topic is a negative in both those aspects and it doesn't look like he'll ever be a positive defender.
Chances of him becoming a good shooter are not great, so what's the point of wasting a top5 pick on a defensive traffic cone that can't really shoot?

The same way NBA disregarded foreign prospects back in the day, they get overhyped now.
Just think of all the European guards that turned out to be legit NBA players and developed into good pieces for championship teams.
All of them were either obvious next big things or came over late as fully developed players.
Tony was more or less the only exception, but he was one of the quickest players in history.

Foreign* guards in recent drafts:
2022: #7 Dyson Daniels
2021: #6 Josh Giddey
2020: #7 Killian Hayes
2018: #3 Luka Doncic
2017: #8 Frank Ntilikina
2015: #5 Mario Hezonja, #7 Emmanuel Mudiay
2014: #27 Bogdan Bogdanovic (came over in 2017 at 25 years old)
2013: #17 Dennis Schroeder

*Foreign as in NBA being their first American basketball experience, I'm not counting foreign players that went to college.

You have to go all the way back to 2009 and Ricky Rubio to find another legit European point guard and he was the biggest Euro point guard prospect until Luka.

While Europeans are somewhat taking over the league, it's simply not the case for point guards.
If Topic was a great shooter, I'd take him right away, but he screams bust no matter how you look at, I can't see why would anyone take him in the lottery other than Luka hype?
It wouldn't surprise me if his injury status isn't actually legit, but they're hiding him since his draft stock went way up.

[exstatic]

Which he didn't once he got to a good league. And then he just shut his season down. Or even worse his knee is screwed.

Don’t even care about that, especially if we get dropped in the draft, and it allows him to fall to us. Modern sports medicine is nearly miraculous, and if he needs surgery, then he’s a high level prospect that will have surgery.

[Mugen]

Might need to get pick 3 or 4 to get Dillingham then grab Topic at 7? Though Topic seems like a waste if you're already getting the best guard in the class with your first pick.

A) I'm fine with them picking one but will lose my if they get 2 picks in the top 10 and spend them both on a PG
B) I personally think Topic goes before Dilly. I think Topic goes no lower than 6 while Dilly is probably in the 3-9 range

[Russ]

Because I don't think the guy who can't shoot, sucked in Euroleague, and has been pulling a Wiseman to protect his draft stock is the best guard in the draft?

Sometimes all the metrics seem to line up but the truth has a mlnd of its own.

[skin27]

It doesnt matter topic or dillingham spurstalk will still whine every game.

[Mugen]

It doesnt matter topic or dillingham spurstalk will still wine every game.

[baseline bum]

A) I'm fine with them picking one but will lose my if they get 2 picks in the top 10 and spend them both on a PG
B) I personally think Topic goes before Dilly. I think Topic goes no lower than 6 while Dilly is probably in the 3-9 range

Topic is such high risk when he was fattening up his numbers against scrub compe ion and then fell apart when having to play against Euroleague talent. I know people point to his FT shooting but Rubio was an 80% FT shooter. I don't understand when the same people who on Scoot for meaningless numbers against G-League compe ion and then him sitting out the season after a few games last year are now so pro Topic when he does the same .

I'm fine with Topic at pick #6-9, but too many red flags for me to want him at say #2 to #4. If Sarr, Risacher, Dilly, Sheppard, and Buzelis are off the board I'd probably rather take the risk on Topic than say Ron Holland or Cody Williams though.

[baseline bum]

It doesnt matter topic or dillingham spurstalk will still wine every game.

Nah I beer every game

[Mugen]

Topic is such high risk when he was fattening up his numbers against scrub compe ion and then fell apart when having to play against Euroleague talent. I know people point to his FT shooting but Rubio was an 80% FT shooter. I don't understand when the same people who on Scoot for meaningless numbers against G-League compe ion and then him sitting out the season after a few games last year are now so pro Topic when he does the same .

I'm fine with Topic at pick #6-9, but too many red flags for me to want him at say #2 to #4. If Sarr, Risacher, Dilly, Sheppard, and Buzelis are off the board I'd probably rather take the risk on Topic than say Ron Holland or Cody Williams though.

Topic is a flawed prospect no doubt but I wouldn't classify him as being that much more high risk than somebody like Dilly tbh. I also like Dilly and wouldn't mind if he was the Spurs pick. I just have a slight preference for Topic because I value his strengths (rim pressure and playmaking) a little bit more than Dilly's (shot creation and shooting) next to Wemby IF they were to translate to the NBA. Huge, huge IF obviously but I just can't see how you look at this draft and say 1 guy is way more high risk than the other.

Again, I'm fine if the pick is Dilly. What I wouldn't be fine with is your proposed scenario where they end up taking both or wasting a top 6 pick on somebody like Clingan or Sarr when they already have a top 3 Center in the league. That'd be absolutely dumb AF