Tidjane Salaun - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[SpursBills]

The last draft to be considered this bad was 2013, when Anthony Bennett was selected #1 overall. But you know who else was in that draft? Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was a young, extremely raw prospect who wasn’t good at basketball, but had the positional size, athleticism, and frame that made scouts dream he could one day blossom into a superstar.

I mean, yes on the surface swinging for Salaun sounds like a great idea, because he's got a great frame and great measurements, and his 99th percentile is basically Giannis if he learns to play great defense, bulks up, improves his rim finishing, learns core offensive concepts, gains passing vision, and learns how to play team ball. But once you stretch it that far, you can apply that logic to pretty much.

For example, if Reed Sheppard hits his 99th percentile outcome he develops incredible handles and his 3 point shooting translates on massive volume, isn't that basically just Steph curry?

If Nikola topic became a high volume 3 point shooter and developed his defense with his rim pressure translating, isn't that basically just a better SGA?

This is why I don't think it's wise to draft Salaun - like yes, a Giannis comes around once every generation and maybe you hit, but more often than not you're probably getting Bruno Caboclo

[objective]

I understand swinging for upside but this draft obviously is confounding. So I'm curious about who the upside swings would be:

Cody, Castle, Topic, Collier, Holland? I think it would be good to put some names out there specifically to make this more grounded.

I'm coming around on Holland big time

Great size, 6-8 in shoes, 6-10.75 wingspan. Explosive athlete, fast with and without the ball. Gets downhill in a hurry, not a slow ass bum like Primo who couldn't even get to the nail without a screen. Made some very promising passes, unselfish. Only played 29 of 50? games so he never even got to 'turn a corner' and show improvement because of the hand injury. Scored 19.5 pts a game against grown professionals as an 18 year old on a rudderless team.

His shot is busted. How badly is a point if contention. If that can be fixed, he's right there, he knows how to play basketball, he has body coordination, he sees the floor, he makes plays on defense (2.3 steals & 0.9 blocks).

The only other significant criticism I heard besides the usual for young players (cutting down on turnovers etc) was a charge that he was way too dominant/reliant on jumping off a particular leg and that was holding him back. Considering how many has dropping highlights of athleticism he's had despite that supposed flaw, I don't know how big a deal it is.

[Uriel]

To be clear, I’m not saying I think Salaun will become the next Giannis (he almost certainly will not). Nor am I advocating for drafting him at #8 (I would personally rather have Dillingham if he is available).

I’m merely pointing out the parallels in Salaun and Antetokounmpo‘s situations. Also, if the Spurs do decide to draft him at #8, that would mean that our front office believes in his ability to reach his upside tail, which would be an exciting development in itself.

[SpursFan86]

Look, it’s a cop out answer but this stuff isn’t black or white. It’s not “Player A has upside but Player B is a safe role player”. There are low range outcomes, median outcomes, high-range outcomes and a million alternatives all in between.

Ultimately it comes down to what those possible outcomes are, and what are the %s of each hitting. An “upside prospect” having a 30% chance of busting and 70% chance of becoming an all-star isn’t the same as an upside prospect with a 90% chance of busting and a 10% chance of actually becoming a star.

In the case of Salaun: hate to say it but I view him more as the latter of those scenarios. And when the chances of a guy panning out are that low, then sorry but I’ll gladly take a guy with a higher floor whose ceiling might be a little lower. Keep in mind that it’s entirely possible for guys to end up having a ceiling that wasn’t perceived to be there. You can’t just harp on Salaun’s upside and then act like it’s 100% certainty that Knecht (just using as an example) will never be anything more than a role player.

It just seems wild to me that people would only focus on the top 1% of outcomes and ignore what would play out the other 99% of times. I’m not saying upside is irrelevant but again there’s a spectrum here…and at some point just saying “well I want to gamble on the upside because role players are a dime a dozen” just doesn’t make sense.

[Ariel]

To be clear, I’m not saying I think Salaun will become the next Giannis (he almost certainly will not). Nor am I advocating for drafting him at #8 (I would personally rather have Dillingham if he is available).

I’m merely pointing out the parallels in Salaun and Antetokounmpo‘s situations. Also, if the Spurs do decide to draft him at #8, that would mean that our front office believes in his ability to reach his upside tail, which would be an exciting development in itself.

My guy, there is no parallel possible between Salaun and Giannis, go take a look at pre draft tape from both and tell me where Salaun's upside tail resembles even remotely that of a star. By the way, I'm still waiting for someone (ANYONE) to help me envision what that Salaun upside tail looks like, so far it's all abstract jibberish.

[scott]

Seems exactly like the kind of guy the Blazers would draft. Hopefully they do.

[objective]

Reasonable upside for Salaun:

Trey Lyles without the sleepwalking ?

[Uriel]

My guy, there is no parallel possible between Salaun and Giannis, go take a look at pre draft tape from both and tell me where Salaun's upside tail resembles even remotely that of a star. By the way, I'm still waiting for someone (ANYONE) to help me envision what that Salaun upside tail looks like, so far it's all abstract jibberish.

In response to your first question, I’m saying the parallels between Salaun and Giannis are in their situations, not their games. I’ve already said that I believe that Salaun will almost certainly not become the next Giannis and that I would rather draft Dillingham at #8 if he were available.

In response to your second question, here is pre-draft tape that shows highlights from one of Salaun’s most recent games. Of course, I’m aware that anyone can put together a mixtape that can make anyone look like an all-star. But I post this to point out that Salaun’s upside isn’t 100% abstract, and that he has shown real flashes of his potential, including in playoff games in a major professional basketball league.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=iWDKMSOVqEo

[TD 21]

The Antetokounmpo comp is lazy. Just because they're European and of African descent (well, half in Salaun's case) and have a similar build, their games aren't alike at all. The former was a far superior athlete with point forward skills and a worse stroke.

Reasonable upside for Salaun:

Trey Lyles without the sleepwalking ?

Nah, Lyles always had good feel and ball skills for his position.

Toppin is probably the best comp.

[BatManu20]

Yea Obi Toppin has been his most consistent player comp that I've seen from scouts, and I'm not a huge fan of Toppin's game personally, especially on the defensive end. I won't melt down if we draft him at 7, I just think there'll be better players available at 8 tbh.

[rankingtear]

Salaun is perfect Wemby complement at the 4 as a role player. He should hit those deep above the break threes that neutralizes how they guard Wemby with a small defender + a rim protector behind him. He can cross match against centers as he fills out that could take Wemby rim protection out of the paint. I think these are two things you feel good about getting there even as raw as he is on the other stuff. The swing is guarding in space and attacking closeouts.

[T Park]

He’s 18 and raw and anyone that can accurately say or predict what he will become doesn’t know

That said.

If they had a second pick LAST year, I would be 100% on board.


Not now. If the team was further along, I could talk myself into it.


Pass. Pass all day long.

[ChumpDumper]

Toppin is probably the best comp.

Yea Obi Toppin has been his most consistent player comp that I've seen from scouts, and I'm not a huge fan of Toppin's game personally, especially on the defensive end. I won't melt down if we draft him at 7, I just think there'll be better players available at 8 tbh.

This is nuts because further down the draft there is a Dayton perimeter PF with clearly better defense.

[objective]

It's taken Toppin years to get where he is and he's still a backup whose original team gave up on. And that's with explosive verticality.

And after beginning the season with his new team as the starter he was so good they traded for Siakam to take his role from him.

[duncan2150]

Imo Salaun is nothing close to toppin.I coule see a good comp in Patrick williams : raw prospect, flashes, good physical tools. Still not m'y pick at 8 but i'll trust all the french reporters about him and not Some Dumb comments saying he can't play basketball. He is an 18 years old kid playing on a good french team and in Europe, a lot of people underestimate that.

[rascal]

Seems exactly like the kind of guy the Blazers would draft. Hopefully they do.

Blazers like Athleticism

So no they won't draft Salaun

[Ariel]

In response to your first question, I’m saying the parallels between Salaun and Giannis are in their situations, not their games. I’ve already said that I believe that Salaun will almost certainly not become the next Giannis and that I would rather draft Dillingham at #8 if he were available.

In response to your second question, here is pre-draft tape that shows highlights from one of Salaun’s most recent games. Of course, I’m aware that anyone can put together a mixtape that can make anyone look like an all-star. But I post this to point out that Salaun’s upside isn’t 100% abstract, and that he has shown real flashes of his potential, including in playoff games in a major professional basketball league.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=iWDKMSOVqEo

Here's a more representative sample of his game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9B1bw2L9YU
It's long, but you can skip here and there, like take a look at his finishing at 6:40, watch a few minutes starting at 8:50...you'll see that his skill level leaves a lot to be desired.
Best case scenario for him is he works his butt off for years and learns to play simple and efficient in a very well defined and limited role, as a stretch 4, where he just plays really physical defense, crashes the boards and gets garbage points that way, sets hard screens and consistently hits 3s at a high volume. That's a valuable role and it isn't impossible he gets there, but I'd say it's a long shot and it would take a long time of him playing through his mistakes, if Spurs had a pick in the 20s then maybe you take a flyer, but this is one of the last top 10 picks (possibly the last) the Spurs are going to have in a long time, so I'd prefer to use it on someone with a better foundation than Salaun.

[Ariel]

Imo Salaun is nothing close to toppin.I coule see a good comp in Patrick williams : raw prospect, flashes, good physical tools. Still not m'y pick at 8 but i'll trust all the french reporters about him and not Some Dumb comments saying he can't play basketball. He is an 18 years old kid playing on a good french team and in Europe, a lot of people underestimate that.

Have you ever considered watching him by yourself and making your own opinion? You're not forced to buy into anyone else's portrayal of him, from French reporters or "dumb comments", you know?

[duncan2150]

Have you ever considered watching him by yourself and making your own opinion? You're not forced to buy into anyone else's portrayal of him, from French reporters or "dumb comments", you know?

.Yes i have a tv and computer. I live in paris so i watched him a few times (not in person ) and then i think listening to some podcasts or other is interesting. Furthermore if They have some Intel about the background ect... that's the Way i make m'y opinion.

[itzsoweezee]

He’s definitely a worthy gamble at 8. Size+shooting is the hardest combo to come by in the NBA. I’d rather the Spurs take their chances on this guy than some blah AAU/NCAA dude.

[Dejounte]

I am personally a little more conservative than you I think, and swinging for a home run is definitely more palatable when you don't have an established centerpiece in place. If you've got nobody in place, and you take a swing and realize after a year or 2 that you miss, the only people that you're probably pissing off are your long-suffering fans who you can feed a new message of hope every year in the lottery. But if your franchise centerpiece is already in place and you swing and miss after 2 years, you've burned 2 years of his window which will probably piss him off so that likely outcomes are also important.

That being said, the majority of a prospect's success comes from his upside tail, so I still do believe in drafting for upside. But personally, I try and draft for a prospect's ~75th percentile outcome, where you're getting either non-outlier development or outlier development in 1 facet, as opposed to trying to swing for a home run and envisioning what would happen with outlier development in multiple core skills.

An established centerpiece still needs a star or two next to him. The Spurs need to be desperate to find one no matter what avenue they take: draft, FA, trade. There are stars in the NBA who don’t get any second star next to them until like their 10th year. The Spurs should avoid that as much as possible. Using this draft to be content with finding a role player when there’s a possibility of finding a star is a waste of Wemby’s years.

I’m not an advocate of Salaun per say— i am an advocate of the Spurs doing the best they can to get talented players, and not play safe about it.

[Extra Stout]

If Jamal Murray is good enough to be the second star on a champion, then so is Darius Garland. His cost will probably be lower than Trae Young or Dejounte Murray because the face-saving dynamic that is there with Atlanta is not there with Cleveland. Why keep taking swings in the draft for guys like Salaun to be a second star when he can be had? Who in the 2024 draft realistically has upside higher than what Garland was doing before Mitc arrived?

[exstatic]

I understand swinging for upside but this draft obviously is confounding. So I'm curious about who the upside swings would be:

Cody, Castle, Topic, Collier, Holland? I think it would be good to put some names out there specifically to make this more grounded.

I personally don’t see either Topic or Castle as upside swings, since they both just need one skill, and the same one at that, shooting from distance, to pop.

[R. DeMurre]

Higher upside can be such an abstract concept-- Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman had higher upside than Franz Wagner and Tyrese Haliburton, but the reasons for this were gauzy at best. The latter two had much more demonstrated success, while Wiseman & Kuminga had projections. I don't think there's a single definitive way to approach the draft process. Even in the abstraction of High floor/high bust potential vs high floor/low bust potential, there are many moving parts and every comparison has degrees of guesswork and potential slippage with regard to possible outcomes. But one of the great things about a stockpile of picks is you can play around with both approaches.

[exstatic]

This is nuts because further down the draft there is a Dayton perimeter PF with clearly better defense.

Isn’t there also an actual Toppin, although unrelated?