2024 NBA Draft Thread

[scott]

IMO, I don’t think there’s any deep analysis behind how these guys are placed into these tiers. I think they’re in the tier they’re in because of their success in college. For the non-international guys, anyway. They probably even do aggregation across multiple mock drafts. This is the same league that uses the media, like ing Kendrick Perkins, for their votes on who the DPOY should be. That’s how silly the league is.

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

[Limguogolo]

No offense but "game fell off a cliff" for a few months in 19 kid first pro season might be a tad exagerrated...

For the record, here's Risacher stats his last 4 games in front of an army of NBA scouts:

14.3pt, 6.5rb, 60% shooting, 40% on 3 (5/12), 82% FT (14/17) in 25min.

Not to bad for a kid whose game fell off a cliff (and that's in a compe ive pro league).

Interesting indeed.


Victor with the Metropolitans 92:
21.6pts at 47% and 27% at 3pts in 32min
Victor with the Spurs:
21.4pts at 46.5% and 32.5% at 3pts in 30min


Very similar stats.


Risacher in ProA:
10pts at 51% and 35% at 3pts in 22m
Risacher in EuroCup (23games):
11.3pts at 54.1% and 45% at 3pts in 23m
(Not only 3s if you shoot 50%.)


Salaün in ProA:
9pts at 37,6% and 33,6% at 3pts in 23m
Salaün in Champions League:
10pts at 43% and 29.5% at 3pts in 24m


Champagnie with the Spurs:
6.8pts at 40% and 36% at 3pts in 20m


Salaün and Risacher are certainly far better defenser than Champagnie. So it's only stats obviously but if we consider that a player can reproduce the same statistics from one league to another with an additional year of experience and an identical role (Salaün and Risacher are role players in their team) -- which is not obviously never quite the case -- there would already be added value by comparing with Champagnie. Do you want to have a PG? Take one with Toronto pick (Topic, Juan Núñez or other), and get Nadir Hifi who is a 22-year-old undrafted player in July who can play scoring PG off the bench.


Nadir Hifi in ProA:
15.7 at 47% and 38% at 3pts in 21m
Nadir Hifi in EuroCup:
16.6 at 46% and 36% at 3pts in 22m
4th best scorer in the compe ion (won, against Risacher's team)


Hifi is 6'1, but very athletic (Patty Mills is 6'2)


Btw, why Juan Núñez is that low in the draft? % ? Put your first pick in the starting lineup to shoot 3s, and then, ask Hifi, or another scoring PG to run the show from the bench with Keldon. If you want a PG to give the ball to Victor (and if you can't get one on the market, it being understood that if you want to win straight away, a veteran PG will always be better than a young one -- Garlant?), Topic and Núñez are perfect.

[objective]

There was a very interesting Locked on Jazz episode with David Locke doing a numbers breakdown only, and some of his number breakdown was very informative, he also went into how the numbers saw past drafts, including mentioning how the numbers red flagged Primo for negative athleticism, and ain't that the truth for old Cement Shoes Joshy. He didn't really go into the athleticism numbers thing this time but I think I remember it being based on transition scoring + rim finishing with attempts factored.

Anyways of course the numbers went berserk for Shepperd who actually came out much better athletically than Dillingham.

Some of the names who arguably came close to Shepperd numbers both shooting and as a pick and roll operator were Marcus Sasser and Desmond Bane. But even those weren't exactly close matches.

[Dejounte]

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.

[Ariel]

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.

Yup, and that is why it's assumed to be the case by the league, as evidenced by the very wide range of teams receiving those medicals (1: top 10, 2-6: top 15, 7-10: top 25).

[Dejounte]

The Spurs would hate it if they lost their Josh Primo from this draft because their big board leaked tbh

[scott]

It would serve an NBA team no good to send their actual big board to the NBA, especially in this day and age where things get leaked. I’m thinking strategic here. What each team provided is probably the consensus. That, to me at least, would be common sense given the risks of exposing your intentions to other teams.

Even still, if every team was just sending in what they thought was the "consensus" rather then their own big board, it means that most teams view Clingan and Castle as consensus "Tier 2" prospects. Unless they are all just mailing it in and sending in whatever their favorite mock draft is.

[spurraider21]

Even still, if every team was just sending in what they thought was the "consensus" rather then their own big board, it means that most teams view Clingan and Castle as consensus "Tier 2" prospects. Unless they are all just mailing it in and sending in whatever their favorite mock draft is.

it would all be anonymous so its not like you are giving your board away. sure maybe teams picking in the top 10 may game it to sway what tier a player falls in, but the rest of the teams might want medicals on guys that could fall to them, their compe ors, or guys they possibly would trade up for.

[BackHome]

what yall guys think about nikola djurisic

He is one of my top second round picks I like what he brings for a 6'8 SG - My other favorite foreign pick would be Pacome Dadiet a 6'8 SF

[PhantomDashCam]

[onechance87]

He is one of my top second round picks I like what he brings for a 6'8 SG - My other favorite foreign pick would be Pacome Dadiet a 6'8 SF

seems like djurisic rising could be a 1st round pick.Seems to be shining these last several games.

[spurraider21]

Cody/Collier not in the top 10 per that list

[Mr. Body]

If he's the same Tony Parker, then no I don't think so. I think his lack of a 3-ball I think would limit him in today's NBA... but I also think if Tony Parker were 19 years old today he might have developed his game differently and perhaps would have a 3-ball. It's just so hard to compare players of different eras, which is more of my point than in any way trying to knock Parker. I just don't think a comparison to Parker's size is relevant, anymore than it would be comparing someone to Bob Cousy or John Stockton or Craig Ehlo or Scott Skiles or Nash or AI. I just don't see how any of that is relevant to today. Trae Young's size makes him a defensive liability that we all acknowledge, but you only deal with it because of the offensive prowess that he brings. Dilly will have the same defensive liability with maybe a 2% chance of reaching Trae's offensive output.

Tony Parker's career three point shooting was 32.4%. Trae Young's is 35.5%. Of course volume is a big part of it, but that's not a huge difference overall. Parker could have developed more from deep if they wanted. Also, imagine him in an era where perimeter defense isn't allowed and any contact by a driving player is called in their favor. He got knocked down all the time inside on shots. Those would be fouls now.

[BackHome]

Tankathon just came out with a new mock adjusting to players who opted to go back to college - There big boards has Topic #1 and Risacher #2 Sarr # 3 and Sheppard # 4 (SPURS) - Isiah Collier #14


NBA Draft Room has Topic # 2 - and Spurs taking Castle at # 5 and Raptors taking Risacher at #6

[rankingtear]

Per Givony's tweet, the rankings are voted on by the teams. So unless he is misstating, I think that is pretty insightful.

NBA sent teams not NBA teams sent. It is NBA own big board of sorts.

[spurraider21]

NBA sent teams not NBA teams sent. It is NBA own big board of sorts.

nope. nba teams anonymously sent the votes to the league, who compiled it and gave these results. the league then sent the results to the teams

per givony's tweet

[Mr. Body]

What we see from Evan Mobley in Cleveland is likely his best end outcome for Sarr. That's a player who can score efficiently but rarely, putting out little offensive gravity, but who can play very good defense. Cleveland fans seem to think he's already peaked (rather, came in fully developed). Sarr is behind where Mobley was when he entered the league, but it's hard to see him moving past him.

Not a bad thing, but in a vacuum it's hard to think of using a #1 pick for another Mobley.

[SpursBills]

I think there's a decent chance that Sheppard becomes not just a net neutral, but a positive on the defensive end but a lot will depend on his role in the future. Quick hands, elite bball IQ, and anticipation count for a lot, and he doesn't exactly have a slight frame even though he's short. He does get blown by a lot, his POA defense was poor this year, and he could get screened pretty easily. However, we literally just went through these same concerns last year with Brandin Podziemski - 6'5.5" wingspan and significant concerns about POA defense as he was getting blown by constantly at Santa Clara. However, he did have excellent bball IQ and anticipation, skills which allowed him to gain advantages in taking a load of charges this year while improving significantly at the point of attack. Hilariously, Kendrick Perkins put him on all-defense 2nd team which is a joke, but we can at least assume he's hasn't been a negative defender this year as he's been essentially a +0/+0 player by EPM in just his rookie year - impressive and honestly pretty rare.

Comparatively, I think Reed actually reads the game at an even higher level and has better hands and anticipation. He's probably got a shorter wingspan but generated way more stocks this year. He's not the elite guard rebounder Podz is, but there's definitely hope for him becoming a positive in a similar way between his anticipation in drawing charges and off-ball turnover generation. From the limited amount I've seen of him, he seems to be able to generate steals without sacrificing defensive position. If his shooting translates like we think it will and he has non-outlier improvement his tactical ball skills and functional strength, there's a decent chance he becomes like a +2/+1 offense/defense, which basically puts him in similar company to Desmond Bane or Jalen Suggs (for comparison, Derrick White was a top 25 player by EPM at +2.5/+1.7). That's not mind-blowing or anything, but it's definitely solid starter on a contender status level which isn't a bad outcome in this draft.



Dillingham probably has a higher ceiling, as guys like Trae Young or Jamal Murray are +4 offensive guys. But man, I have so many concerns with his defense that go beyond just what he looks like on film (which also isn't pretty).

1. dBPM of 0 (and actually negative dBPM against conference opponents, top 100, and top 50 teams) is impressively bad. I know dBPM is by no means the end-all, be-all, but even current bad NBA defenders did better than that. High dBPM doesn't mean about being a good NBA defender, but a poor dBPM is probably strongly correlated with being a poor NBA defender. Trae Young 1.7. Freshman Isaiah Thomas 1.3. Malaki Branham 0.4 (lol). Freshman Bryn Forbes -2.1 (lmao)

2. He's slight. I'm not going to belabor this point because it's been discussed enough, but I think most guys who were poor defenders who ended up turning into decent NBA defenders didn't have all 3 of being short, small wingspan, AND slight. For example Jamal Murray is bigger, Dennis Smith Jr is stronger and stouter with a larger wingspan.

3. He fouls a ton. 4.5 fouls / 40 minutes means that if he actually played big minutes at Kentucky, he's probably fouling out a decent portion of his games. Nikola Topic also has a similar foul rate in Euroleague comp which is a major concern, but Dilly's doing this against college kids as opposed to grown men. A lot of this is probably technical and can be taught, but it's still a pretty major concern for me.

What's this mean for Dilly? Well, as I stated, his potential on offense is sky-high and I think it's not a stretch to think he can get to +4 or even higher. However, on defense there's no telling how bad he can be. If he's like your average star PG and he's just neutral to -1 like Brunson or Curry, he's probably going to be an all star player or close. But how low can he go? Malaki Branham was a -2.5 this year, and Anfernee Simons was a league worst -3.5. If his offense isn't absolutely elite, his defense might just turn him into a neutral player or worse.

There's also a discussion to be had that involves high-friction vs low-friction players and how that influences team building, but we can save that for another day.

For now, I'm probably taking Sheppard over Dilly knowing full well that Dilly could evolve into some Trae Young-Kyrie hybrid that makes this take look dumb as in a couple years.

[Mr. Body]

I think the Spurs will go for Sheppard for precisely those reasons. I don't personally think, however, that Sheppard will be an overall good defender. He will win possessions with his hands, but he's way too slow on man defense with poor reactions and poor lateral speed. He'll get bodied on switches the same way Dillingham will.

I'm more optimistic on Dillingham's defense than most. When you dig into people's stances on his defense, you get a lot of the same answers: poor positioning, bad rotations, not knowing what to do. These are all fixable. He played for Donda and then Overtime Elite, where he apparently wasn't taught a lick of defense, and he improved over his Kentucky tenure. I didn't see the grotesque, amazing mistakes he was making a few months before.

To me, he has at least the tools to become an alright perimeter defender that Sheppard doesn't - minus those hands. I don't buy that Sheppard is a better athlete. He might have better hops, but he's certainly far slower, both in speed and quickness. There was a reason no one on Kentucky could stick with Gohlke vs. Oakland except for Dillingham. Sheppard couldn't. Now, Dillingham blew things by helping off Gohlke on possessions, which was incredibly dumb. Does he just not understand basketball? Or does he need a lot of coaching up?

In the end, though, I think they'll take Sheppard.

[Ariel]

What we see from Evan Mobley in Cleveland is likely his best end outcome for Sarr. That's a player who can score efficiently but rarely, putting out little offensive gravity, but who can play very good defense. Cleveland fans seem to think he's already peaked (rather, came in fully developed). Sarr is behind where Mobley was when he entered the league, but it's hard to see him moving past him.

Not a bad thing, but in a vacuum it's hard to think of using a #1 pick for another Mobley.

I don't think Sarr will be as good defensively as Mobley, but I do see more promise on offense, he's shown flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor, drive, touch, that I think there's a scenario where he's definitely better than Mobley on that end. But in any case, IMO, it's a trap to think of this draft in terms of pick numbers. We just have to take whomever is best regardless of where said player would usually fall in a normal draft, if you think that's going to be Sarr, Dillingham, Sheppard, Risacher, Topic or whomever, then that's your guy wherever you pick.

[rankingtear]

nope. nba teams anonymously sent the votes to the league, who compiled it and gave these results. the league then sent the results to the teams

per givony's tweet

Just read the tweet it said a blend of public rankings + expert panel + retained scouting team.

[Bruno]

Givony mistakenly said the ranking was made by teams before fixing it. Here is the new version of his tweet:

While the idea of not oversharing personal medical data is great in theory, I find that it sucks in this case. Teams that don't have access to these records might be in position to draft these players with a draft day trade.

[Bruno]

[JPB]

For now, I'm probably taking Sheppard over Dilly knowing full well that Dilly could evolve into some Trae Young-Kyrie hybrid that makes this take look dumb as in a couple years.

Dilly is just behind Topic in the players I hope spurs don't draft. Sheppard over him any day if you ipick a guard.

And I believe (like every single year) we're starting to see these kids a bit too much with the eyes of love... If Dilly had even a remote chance to become a Trae-Kyrie hybrid, he would be a no brainer in this meh draft. I beleive it's a success if you ever can get a decent starter out of him.

[Dejounte]

Givony mistakenly said the ranking was made by teams before fixing it. Here is the new version of his tweet:

While the idea of not oversharing personal medical data is great in theory, I find that it sucks in this case. Teams that don't have access to these records might be in position to draft these players with a draft day trade.

Ha! scott

I also have been reading rumors that Givony is driven by (possibly paid off) a lot of draft politics, which is why you’ll never hear a peep from him when prospects don’t perform well. Pretty sad when you consider there’s people out there that rely on him for scouting reports.