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I mean, he was talking about peewee basketball, too. Doesn't mean he's going to draft elementary school players.
Let’s be honest, this team likely has Richaser and Topic at 1/2 on their board (though order unclear). Pop has gone out of his way of late to praise the Euro prepped players.
The real question to me is what happens if they’re off the board. Who is their #3?
I mean, he was talking about peewee basketball, too. Doesn't mean he's going to draft elementary school players.
This is the question to me as well. Front office seems to value extremely raw "coachable" guys with good positional tools over production. They want to lean into their development strengths and feel that lack of production at a young age makes their prospects undervalued relative to consensus. If you look at guys like Dejounte (+length and size), Lonnie Walker (+athleticism), Josh Primo (+size), Jeremy Sochan (+speed relative to size), Blake Wesley (+size and athleticism), it follows a pretty consistent pattern of guys who had questionable college production with good physical tools. Sometimes this works out well for them, and other times it doesn't. It's almost the exact opposite approach compared to a team like Memphis for example who leans very strongly into analytics and production over physical tools (Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Vince Williams Jr, Desmond Bane).
If we go by their prior history of drafting, many of us are probably going to be disappointed by their pick as they are unlikely going to take Dillingham or Sheppard. If I were to predict who they draft (not my personal preference), Cody Williams seems like he would fit their prior history. They will bank on +size (6'8"), +wingspan (7'2") relative to position as well as how raw he is physically, and lean into their development. If that happens, we'll have to see how that works out for them.
Last edited by SpursBills; 03-10-2024 at 10:09 AM.
Yeah, I see Cody as the quintessential pick. Checks almost all their boxes. They might not really want a true point guard and would prefer to continue to create them.
I don't understand how BPA has come to mean consensus top player to some folks. It's always been board specific, because the draft is board specific: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/c...e_really_mean/
The Spurs can possibly pick anywhere from 1-9 with their natural pick and 7-12 if they get the Toronto pick. Even if there were a Wembanyama in this draft, the Spurs would have to create a board around the other prospects. They're going to need to be able to choose between an unknown combination of players. I can't see how they don't have detailed reports on all the lotto guys along with plans to do even deeper dives on them. They're going to very much know who they prefer in this situations.
Looking for your starting PG through the draft means at least 3 or 4 years (the time to develop the kid at the most difficult position in the NBA that does take a lot of time to master, if you ever do.
Do we really want to deprave Wemby from having a real quality PG running the show for another 4 years? He sure doesn't want. You can't expect a Topic (that, let's be honest, no one ever saw play here) or any other PG in this draft to come out and rule the league, right of the bat. How many rookie PGs did that these past 10 years?
We gotta stop hyping and fantasizing about these young guys. Tre woul still be a better option as a starter than Topic in his first 2-3 years in the NBA... And I don't even believe Topic will ever be a starter in the NBA, maybe not even a back up. There's no PG that's been more hyped than Scoot Henderson entering the draft these last few years... And it's clearly gonna take at least another 2-3 years after this season before he eventually become a valuable starting PG.
This team needs a real floor general who can shoot the 3, knows the NBA and a buddy for Victor to play with, and not in 3 or 4 years, now.
Last edited by JPB; 03-10-2024 at 09:33 AM.
He has Devin to play with. All modern bigs don't have floor generals. Tre is just the training wheels until year 3 Wemby.
Drafting vs trading for players. We agree, yeah, take the best player. But no one would trade assets for a player on another team just because he's better unless he fit with the team. I understand drafting players is cheaper and involves molding them, but in the end it's still a team that has to fit together. Just bloviating.
in this same vein, the only time I recall the Spurs ever drafting for positional need was Kawhi. Pop talked about how much he hated trading his favorite player George, but the team needed a wing badly and they target one through the draft. Obviously very different situation this season, as the team is so devoid of talent everywhere, they'll take BPA. The only player type we might not need is a 7 foot french big, but we might even draft another one of those as well. This draft is going to be pure chaos. Really hoping we get that second pick from Toronto for a double dose of crazy.
You're surely trying to be conservative, but Spurs should end 3-4 so it's more like 1-7 (with 8th being a very small chance) with their own pick, and Toronto ending 6-7 so it's more like 7-9 (with 10-11 being a very small chance) if it conveys (Toronto tried, but fate seems to have its own plans). All in all, the range is more like 1-9 (1-7 + 7-9).
Like it or not, some of the clues that this front office have given with regards to the PG position are that 1) they absolutely hate undersized point guards (oftentimes to their detriment) and 2) they prefer to distribute ballhandling responsibilities across multiple positions. They're giving Devin and Wemby more creation opportunity this year. They drafted Dejounte and Derrick White, are trying to play Branham and Wesley at point guard. They refused to play Tre Jones until absolutely necessary. Devonte Graham has barely seen the floor all year despite being a known good 3 point shooter. I suspect they are trying to shoehorn a lineup similar to OKC and Boston where you have ball-handling and switchability at all 5 positions where opponents have a difficult time hunting anyone offensively or cutting off a single "head of the snake" defensively, a lineup that works well deep in the playoffs. Whether that approach is realistic given the available talent remains to be seen.
Based on what we've seen, they will probably not draft Dillingham and Sheppard very high because they're too undersized. I don't think they draft Topic either as they may view his skillset as too PNR heavy with difficulty playing off-ball. I'd be shocked if they ended up trading for Trae Young just based on their history and preferences, as he is both ball dominant and undersized and has questions playing off ball. Most likely they will target one of the 3 forwards (Cody 1, then either Matas or Risacher) with their first pick. They may feel that picking up a Tyrese Proctor or Bub Carrington early second round is better value for them to mold. I personally love Sheppard and think that he'd be perfect playing PG in the spurs system, but I'm not sure that's the way they want to go. Now, they may subvert expectations and do something completely different, but this is what I expect based on how they have acted in the past.
I was watching UConn last night and expect to watch them more. My feeling is the same as far as points go. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't prioritize taking one high. Tre has been racking up assists and does well. Having an additional scoring threat is important, but they may have other needs first.
The lottery-grade points I think they'll watch are:
Nicola Topic
Stephon Castle
Reed Sheppard
Topic - Impossible for me to evaluate. I'm sure they've sent scouts out there. Puts pressure on the rim. Good size. Apparently a good playmaker. By reputation not a good defender. Not a good shooter from range.
Sheppard - Probably restricted in position he can play, limited in who he can guard one-on-one. Smart player. Makes plays with his hands and vision. Phenomenal shooter, although not at volume. Has games where he does quite a lot.
Castle - Now here I think is who the Spurs are going to have strong interest in. He's fallen by the wayside in many mocks, but he's slotted into a championship-level team, looks like a veteran. Does a bit of everything, good defender with good reads, deflections and disruptive, if not a lock-down guy exactly. Productive in rebounds and assists, gets to the line decently. In interviews, always talking about buying in and team, shrugs off questions about the draft. If his shooting could clearly be fixed, then he moves well up the board. It doesn't look bad and it's trending up. Should be able to play 1-3.
I think Castle is the big guard the Spurs are keeping an eye on.
Can Matas play point forward?
100%, and not exactly the area that the Spurs have been crushing it of late. Sure, you can't expect a team to ALWAYS crush their pick (meaning, in hindsight they clearly made the best pick) - but the Spurs used to be a lot better at this then they have been of late. I've posted this article a lot of times, but it remains the absolute best scientific analysis of which teams are the best at drafting:
https://towardsdatascience.com/which...g-20070ccd1702
(The same group has another fantastic article: using machine learning to predict NBA success: https://towardsdatascience.com/nba-d...s-a1c6bf576d19)
Using the most updated Dashboard, the Spurs are the 3rd best drafting team from the Period of 2009-2021. However, from 2009-2017, they ranked 4th but had a higher rating (0.12 versus 0.10). Even though their ranking climbed due to the relative failure of other teams, from 2018-2021 the Spurs only ranked 12th, with a 0.07 rating. However, that rating is largely boosted by the Spurs being the absolute BEST at identifying undrafted talent (yes, UDFA count as "drafting" in this analysis). If we exclude those UDFA, The Spurs actually fall to 13th with a -0.01 (slightly below average) rating from 2018-2021, compared to their #3 rating (0.13) from 2009-2017.
Yes, these sample sizes are relatively small - but there is clear evidence that the Spurs are regressing to the mean in their drafting prowess as of late. It will be curious how the Dashboard ratings evolve in the next two years as the Vassell and Sochan picks are factored in.
I also wonder if this post-ASB Spurs, shooting well from 3, gives the FO some indication of what the really want to do - which is upgrading the shooting around the team, and let a Tre (or Tre-like PG: nothing flashy, takes care of the ball, not ball-dominant, only needs to be able to hit the wide open 3) continue to be the game manager. That may indicate that a Risacher or Matas is their top target (heck, maybe both if TOR conveys) or maybe a Kolek as the secondary target with the potential TOR pick? Just spitballin.
By floor general, I mean a guy who can make plays for everyone, set Wemby correctly (lobs and stuff), drive and shoot the 3 (I know that's a lot, reason why no rookie will provide that before several years.)
Jokic has Murray, Chet has SGA, Embiid has Maxey. Devin is nowhere the same as these guys and is actually not really playing with Wemby. Theyre both doing their things with Devin a shooting guard mostly looking for his go to moves an not really opening up things for Wemby and others. Vassell is not a playmaker.
Give Wemby SGA and that's another game.
Last edited by JPB; 03-10-2024 at 01:13 PM.
It's for sure a possibility that shouldn't be dismissed.
Spurs FO might think that the best path to turn Spurs into a contender is to make them an elite defensive team because Wembanyama will likely the best defensive player in the NBA. Spurs likely will never be an elite defensive team with Dillingham, Topic or Sheppard at PG.
With that "defense first" approach, drafting Castle with the Raptors' pick, after having used their own pick on a SF, makes a lot of sense, especially if they think he will be able to be a decent 3 point shooter.
I really have been ignoring Castle. I assumed he was doing pretty good things for a stacked veteran roster. I'm sorry, I wasn't familiar with your game.
Other guards have been getting all the oxygen, so there's not a lot of scouting done on him yet, but this is a good one that goes into his shooting and even points out how good of screens he sets. But the defensive stuff.
The bit at 7:50 is spot on. That's the sort of defensive possession that will give the front office massive boners.
You don't think they'd like Castle at #7 given his size and defense? At least he has gotten his 3pt shooting north of 30% now. Way more interesting prospect than Primo ever was.
I've been saying as much for months. The only exception I think they might make for an undersized PG, is if they're a youngish established star.
I think they prefer a more experienced PG or lead guard, even if it's a stopgap like Brogdon or (Tyus) Jones.
I could see Sheppard with the Craptors 1st, should it convey, but with the natural one, I've long thought it'll be Williams or Buzelis (I expect them to be out of Risacher range).
Don’t know why so many people here are high on Castle. He’s got a bad looking shot and is, at times, afraid to shoot when he has space. This draft blows, but he’s really uninspiring.
Good point, I honestly forgot about him when I was writing that. Yes, he fits what they’re trying to do I think. My first thought was that they’d trade down and get Devin Carter but castle seems reasonable at 7 based on their history as he is younger, bigger, and a better shooter at the same age.
I've been on Castle.
The follow up to this is that if the front office bucks their trend and ends up taking an undersized point guard like Sheppard and especially Dilly with their own pick, it means that they have strong confidence that he’s going to be absolutely godly on offense
Very few are on Castle. Other guards in this draft are weak in their own areas.
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