Hollinger:
”Risacher:
I’m not sure any player’s stock has yo-yo’d as much as Risacher’s in the last year. After a disappointing performance at the Nike Hoop Summit followed a poor shooting year in France, Risacher was seen by some as a fringe first-rounder. This season, his 3-point percentage rebounded sharply, and Risacher suddenly moved into the discussion for the No. 1 pick. Both pendulum swings now seem like overcorrections, with shooting variance ing the punch scouts were drinking.
Let’s take a step back. Risacher has obvious pathways to rotation-level usefulness: He’s a tall wing who can move on the perimeter and showed very good lateral quickness in particular. He has a solid feel for the game, and his shot, while a bit hitchy at the top, is reliable enough to demand the opponent guard him.
But once we start raising the bar to lottery-level pick, the questions become louder. One thing in particular that NBA teams have consistently underpriced is that the French League just isn’t that good. Turkey and Spain, to name two, are much, much stronger. It’s one thing if a guy like Clint Capela or Victor Wembanyama destroys the league as a teenager, but Risacher isn’t doing that – he has a modest 14.8 PER in 57 games for JL Bourg. At the French League level (and in EuroCup play as well, one notch below the EuroLeague), he’s fine … but he’s not an elite player.
Historically, drafting players like this from France hasn’t ended well. The two perimeter players in the last two decades who hit as imports from this league were Evan Fournier and Nic Batum, who both had much more impressive numbers in their pre-draft seasons. The ones who didn’t – the Frank Ntilikinas and Sekou Doumbouyas – were overdrafted based on seasons a bit worse than the one Risacher is having, but Risacher’s statistical profile is much closer to those guys than to Batum and Fournier. (I’m leaving Bilal Coulibaly out of this for now, as we don’t know how the story ends.)
History isn’t destiny, and it’s possible Risacher outperforms these comps. But his lack of on-ball juice at this level is a tell that his upside is probably more as a plus role player than a star, especially given that his shooting isn’t a lock and his thin build and lack of toughness raise added questions.
Risacher has shot better this year, hitting 38.9 percent of his 3s, but it hasn’t been on huge volume and his pedestrian shooting marks on 2s (51.6 percent) and from the line (71.9 percent) haven’t budged at all from a year earlier. Overall, big forwards are rare enough that he’s worth drafting, but a team would feel much better about the pick if it isn’t counting on him becoming a starter.”