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HOU, DET are BPA teams they draft closer to traditional concepts of fans about best prospect. WAS, POR are the pure upside teams. CHA is best college player. That is how they have drafted so far.
For all the swearing that teams draft BPA high in the lottery, pretty much every team is going to be drafting for fit.
Two teams that are in an awkward spot are Detroit and Portland. Washington will get to pick on a direction, Houston probably has a pick of shooter (Sheppard/Risacher) unless they trade. Charlotte is probably happy with defensive upside (Holland/Castle). But for Detroit... they may not see a shooter they need (not taking Dillingham). A lot of Pistons fans are talking Dalton Knecht. As for Portland, there's probably some awkwardness depending on what San Antonio and Charlotte do. I can see them wanting to see Castle or Holland drop.
Washington might determine how picks 4-8 go. And then, if the Rockets take Risacher if Washington doesn't, I can see Sheppard and Clingan both dropping.
HOU, DET are BPA teams they draft closer to traditional concepts of fans about best prospect. WAS, POR are the pure upside teams. CHA is best college player. That is how they have drafted so far.
To me, given what the other teams will do, this draft is not that hard.
If Risacher is there at #4, you take him, then take Dillingham at #8. If he’s not there, you take Dillingham at #4 and draft the best available wing at #8.
Houston and Detroit are looking for specific things. If Detroit doesn't find it, shooting, they have a bad time on their hands. They likely go with a forward. Portland also has too many guards, so if Dillingham is the best player, they won't take him. Charlotte also has specific needs. Every team is dealing with fit this draft.
I'd say if Risacher is not there you draft Buzelis, cause otherwise Detroit most likely takes him. Dillingham shuld be there at 8 regardless.
This is good analysis. I agree that WAS is the lynchpin of this whole thing.
Additional thoughts:
- If the Spurs like Castle, I think they'd need to take him at 4. I don't think he gets past CHA.
- I assume the "top" wings (ZR, Matas, Holland) will go before 8, so if they take Castle I wonder if that puts Williams or Saluan at play at 8.
- It feels there is a break in the draft around 9. If Topic is there at 8, I think the Spurs may still take him despite the injuries.
- Read that the DET may be one of the teams most likely to trade out of 5. If Risacher is there at 4 and they see him as their only path to some shooting via this draft, is there a small trade that works that involves us moving back a spot?
- Alternatively, is there a deal with DET to move up to 5 using 8 and 35? DET traded 31 earlier this year so perhaps an early SRP (maybe both?) could appeal. That should still allow them to draft Kenect, while picking up an asset.
Topic with the injury yet again could fall to number 8.
Maybe not, but the Hornets are probably the only team that might select Castle before 8, they're in asset ac ulation mode and I doubt they'd be so high on him to turn down 8+, especially when they can select a similar type in Holland.
The Spurs expending 4 on an archetype that has a high bust rate and a player who in many ways is the an hesis of what they need would be asinine . . . and yet unfortunately can't be ruled out.
The other thing to consider is the teams just below us, and wanting to trade up.
Memphis seems very likely to want Clingan, who could go out of their reach and trade up.
Likewise, Chicago has perimeter talent but Vucevic is not great, and could look to trade up. If Chicago offered 11 and reducing protections on their pick (e.g top 8, top 6, top 4) for 8 I'd be open to that deal, just for the additional value/ certainty of the pick conveying.
Was about to post this. Lots of teams could be interested in trading up, especially to no. 4:
Detroit at 5: just one pick but could be an important one given their needs, so maybe add in a Keldon / Ivey swap, or a top 4 protected '25 FRP swap.
Charlotte at 6: some players are all but certain to be gone by them, especially the wings. so lowering the protections and extendiing the years of the pick they owe could be a good compromise for both teams. Say something like top 8 protected in '25 and top 4 protected in '26.
Portland at 7: maybe they could offer a future swap, or a Keldon / Simmons swap. Also they have another pick at 14 which could be used to catch someone who falls (Topic, Cody Williams, Collier, Clingan, McCain, Devin Carter, etc).
Chicago at 11: I'd be asking for them to remove all protections. If they want to move up to 8, then having the protections reduced to top 6 or top 8 sounds reasonable.
Lots of possibilities, hope the FO approaches the draft with an open mind and explores the market.
I like the way of thinking, but I can't imagine CHA or CHI wanting to jeopardize their 2025 prospects just to move up in this one. Charlotte probably doesn't even care or think about that pick they owe us at this point, and expect to be back in the lotto next year. CHI I could see the possibility that they just move into solid rebuilding mode and have been waiting for next year to really do it.
Detroit and Portland make the most sens to trade up within the top 10. I think Monte would be pretty high on a Keldon deal.
Probably true, but sometimes teams fool themselves into thinking they'll do better than you'd realistically expect, and Chicago fits that mold: lets remember when they traded for Vucevic and gave up WCJ + 2 lottery picks (8 & 11) one of which became Franz Wagner. After all, they see themselves as a playoff aspiring team, plus it's not like they can expect to jump into top 4 for a couple 2nd rounders.
As for Charlotte, you could make the case either way: if they're a high lottery team, it's likely the pick doesn't convey either way, and even if it does it won't be one of the more high profile targets. If they REALLY value a given player much higher than the rest and he's projected to be gone by 4, they might take the prospect they have now, over a pick that may be theirs anyway. It'd be a case of making a compromise on the protections (lower protectiosn for one year, higher protections for 2/3, etc).
Chicago is going to be interesting and I think we'll know pretty quickly this offseason on whether we need to a "Chicago Pick Watch" thread. If they let Demar walk and trade Lavine for peanuts... I think we'll need to be concerned.
Castle at 4 then worst case is Topic/Knecht/Willams at 8. Possibly someone more interesting if Klingon doesn’t go top 7.
Hawks brass courtside watching Risacher today.
If he goes #1, that does shake things up a little bit. At that point I think the first major pivot point is with Houston, who I could see taking Sheppard or Buzelis, but also maybe Clingan Then the Spurs have a few choices to make. Here are some scenarios, using what I think the big board should look like (which is probably not reality, but the best I can do). There are some scenarios here where Detroit is really kind of ed, because I think they really desperately want one of the top 3 wings, but I have Sheppard as the backup plan for them. Maybe it's Castle or Williams though. I'm assuming POR will want Wing, but I don't know. In many cases they are left only with Williams to choose from and I'm not sure he fits that team. I could see them going Clingan as well. Don't see them taking Sheppard.
The way to read this chart: if you see a blank, then that pick is unchanged from the pick in that slot immediately to the left. I don't love the scenarios where we get Dilly and Sheppard, largely because as see those as risks that the Spurs do something stupid (like take Salaun).
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 ATL Risacher WAS Sarr HOU Sheppard Buzelis Clingan SA Buzelis Dillingham Holland Sheppard Buzelis DET Holland Holland Sheppard Holland Holland CHA Castle Castle Castle Castle Castle POR Williams Williams Williams Williams Williams SA Dillingham Sheppard Dillingham Dillingham Dillingham
If Atlanta goes Risacher it gets interesting because I'm not sure Washington goes Sarr. If they go with a PG does Houston take Sarr? How far can he fall?
A Sarr to DET scenario would be interesting, because it would give them two athletic, non-shooting big men. Paired with Ausar, they could set the league back 20 years trying to win games 79-77!
I think the Spurs grab Sarr if he's there. At the very least field offers to drop a little.
But he won't drop.
I think the Spurs grab Sarr if he's there. At the very least field offers to drop a little.
But he won't drop.
WAS absolutely takes Sarr if he’s there at 2. Their fans here want that too fwiw
I’m think Risacher and Sarr go 1/2 though the order is unclear. The interesting pick will be Houston, and whether they cut a deal to move off it.
So you have Topic dropping outside the top 8 in all your scenarios... Let's just say I think you're seriously underestimating him as a prospect.
That's fine, but I think he's an overrated prospect who now has injury concerns with only two teams in the Top 8 who will realistically take a PG (and one of them is taking Sarr in this scenario).
I agree, i think he's a clear Top 5 pick even with the slight knee injury.
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