8 Questions About the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery and the Spurs

[timvp]

https://www.spurstalk.com/questions-...draft-lottery/

[jesterbobman]

1. Quite bad, though that's a mix of it seems weaker in overall talent (there'll always be variation year to year) AND it's particularly uncertain at the top.
2. Yes, #1 is relatively cheap, can either trade down or just have first overall pick, money difference isn't that big.
3. Future contract, being overly attracted to your own guys. Being overly focused on f#@*ing up and dealing with the downside is poor approach, you should focus on adapting on what you see and be willing to admit a mistake, even if it followed good process.
4 (and 5). Always debate. I think Toronto should be (is?) thinking that Barnes is a good enough player to build around, and won't want to waste his first deal rebuilding with no promise. A Quickly / RJ / Scottie / ? / Poeltl wit , Olynyk, etc should be decent though not amazing. Gets into a debate of 7 this year vs 90% having 10 next year / 9% at #10 in 2026. Small difference at 7, think you can go either way on risk preference.
6. Trade down and get more assets / Sarr / depends on the combination with the Toronto pick. You've got to think of building to a le contender eventually, and acknowledge that you're not at the point to pick for a particular need as there are so many (and, viewed with retrospect, as we're unlikely to be contending next year) BPA will be the best option. I think that's Sarr, but I don't think it's so clear where you'd take him no matter what, like Wemby was last year.
7. Mostly the same people with the Toronto pick. Maybe avoid combos like Dilly / Topic, but mostly just BPA.
8. A GOAT level player is worth about 20 wins a year, a fringe all star is probably worth about 10, with a slow progress down until 5th starters are worth 5 or so wins a year. Last year was huge (and we got lucky), this year we're looking at a tiny difference. Worst outcome is probably more Atlanta moves up (as it limits the upside of the unprotected swaps if they pick well) rather than wherever the Spurs end up. I'd love 1 and 7, but most things are fine.

[Mugen]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

[Mr. Body]

In a questionable draft with no top 1-4 players, you should definitely NOT want a pick in that range. You're going to have excruciating decisions down the line with ballooning contracts. Either expect to max that player out or expect to not have them their full career.

If you combined this year's draft with 2023, Rob Dillingham probably supplants Anthony Black as the number 6 pick with 1-5 from last year remaining where they are. The ridiculous overvalue of Sarr goes away and he drops to around where Derek Lively went. The rest would be a crapshoot.

Getting the TOR pick is optimal. The desire to tank again will be high for many teams next year and we already have two picks anyway. Even if we go 7, 8 or so, we have two lottery grade players to try out.

[Mr. Body]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

Can you explain to me who the Spurs should have picked in 2022 with those late first rounders instead? The only possible miss was Kessler, but he's already starting to be unplayable.

Look through the list and tell me who they should have very clearly drafted that night: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NBA_draft

[Mugen]

Can you explain to me who the Spurs should have picked in 2022 with those late first rounders instead? The only possible miss was Kessler, but he's already starting to be unplayable.

Look through the list and tell me who they should have very clearly drafted that night: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NBA_draft

Looking at the next 9 picks after Wesley and I'd immediately want Jovic, Watson, Nembhard and Jaylin Williams over him tbh. I dont even care about missing on J Dub and Kessler with the other picks tbh.

[LeBowen]

Looking at the next 9 picks after Wesley and I'd immediately want Jovic, Watson, Nembhard and Jaylin Williams over him tbh. I dont even care about missing on J Dub and Kessler with the other picks tbh.

It's hillarious how Spurs went from picking random Euros noone knew or cared about to missing Euro prospects in favor of fundamentally flawed charity cases.

[TD 21]

I've long been resigned to not moving up or having the Craptors pick convey (and if/when it doesn't, then it should be included in any significant trade that might occur between now and the '25 draft).

I just hope they don't throw the natural pick in the garbage on some raw, (perceived) choir boy wing, who can't shoot.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

For The Bigots And The Uninitiated (spurstalk.com)

[scott]

With the draft being so weak at the top, should the Spurs actually hope for the first pick?

The Spurs have about a 10% chance of landing the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Even though the top of the draft is weak, San Antonio would still be very happy to get the top pick.
First of all, the first pick is a really good trade asset. Secondly, the rookie scale ensures that the contract will be reasonable. Most importantly, landing the first pick would guarantee the Spurs the chance of drafting the top player on their board. Given San Antonio’s impressive history in the draft spanning decades, that’d be an enviable position.

Not buying into this whatsoever. The Spurs' recent history isn't nearly as impressive (it's shining moment is making the obvious choice of picking Victor). In the Wright era (regardless of who is actually making the picks), the Spurs have been quite lackluster, and until proven otherwise that is the only history I'm basing things on. Whatever scouting department hit on Tony, Manu, Nephew, DJM, Derrick, etc. isn't the same scouting department that is in place now, so the previous history is irrelevant.

[Knoxxx]

The pick should convey now. Toronto could just as easily tank for the '25 draft if it doesn't convey this year. That's what I'd do if I were them tbh.

I'm also concerned about having too many picks in next year's draft as silly as that sounds. But I do not trust Wright at all with that many picks (look at the last time he had 3 first rounders). He'd definitely waste a few of them instead of trading them for future 1st rounders like Presti would do tbh.

Your second paragraph is arguably absurd so I will refrain from commenting on that.

As far as your first point, yes I educated the entire board on that early on its the old saying “a bird in hand…”

Of course it’s too difficult to prove I educated the board on that, and some of course refuse to be educated at any cost. However, it’s patently obvious TOR could completely implode and their pick NEVER convey. Also, the fact that the current draft is “weak” makes having two top 10 picks more valuable. I know, hard to wrap your brain around but think about it.

Caveat: I had two glasses of champagne before this post, HAPPY MOTHERS DAY!!! (in case your thought I was actually just a sock account for Mul roll or something with my absurdly brash takes, LOL)

[Knoxxx]

Not buying into this whatsoever. The Spurs' recent history isn't nearly as impressive (it's shining moment is making the obvious choice of picking Victor). In the Wright era (regardless of who is actually making the picks), the Spurs have been quite lackluster, and until proven otherwise that is the only history I'm basing things on. Whatever scouting department hit on Tony, Manu, Nephew, DJM, Derrick, etc. isn't the same scouting department that is in place now, so the previous history is irrelevant.

Yes except you fail to account for dumb ass luck. We got lucky then not lucky then lucky again. It happens.

[scott]

Yes except you fail to account for dumb ass luck. We got lucky then not lucky then lucky again. It happens.

Drafting Primo over Sengun (as an example) is not “bad luck” - it’s bad drafting.

[DPG21920]

Great day for Spurs overall. A very nice win for Wright locking in pick 8 for Jakob.

Spurs should be able to move around now in the draft if they need too, but it’s setting up for a Dillingham + one of Reed/Cody/Castle/Holland draft IF Dillingham can survive the first 3 picks

[baseline bum]

Great day for Spurs overall. A very nice win for Wright locking in pick 8 for Jakob.

Spurs should be able to move around now in the draft if they need too, but it’s setting up for a Dillingham + one of Reed/Cody/Castle/Holland draft IF Dillingham can survive the first 3 picks

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really s us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG and Sheppard would probably be way better off the ball.

[Russ]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really s us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG.

What if Topic is the real target . . .

[DPG21920]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really s us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard. Can't see any way Houston takes Dillingham when they have Amen at PG.

Ya - if Dillingham is the target, then looks like you have to survive WAS. No way ATL does that if they have Trae and/or DJ still. WAS could easily do it as they will just take BPA and need guards too.

HOU like you said doesnt seem likely but I wouldn’t be surprised either since they draft for talent. But Reed makes more sense for them or Risacher. WAS will be key and I doubt WAS would trade too. Was hoping WAS stayed behind SA…

[LeBowen]

Ugh if Washington takes Dilly that really s us since then Houston would surely take Risacher. While if Washington takes Risacher I'm thinking Houston takes Sheppard.

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

[baseline bum]

What if Topic is the real target . . .

Please don't make me want to drink at 3PM on a Sunday

[Russ]

Please don't make me want to drink at 3PM on a Sunday

You'll feel better in the long run . . .

[Mugen]

Id say theres close to 0% chance Dillingham goes to Washington at #2.

[baseline bum]

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

Amen's going to be their PG and Sheppard would be way better off the ball than Dillingham IMO. Guessing they'd play Risacher at both the 3 and 4.

[DPG21920]

Am I missing something with the Rockets?
They've got Jabari, Amen, Eason and Whitmore on the wings, do they really need another one?
To me it looks like a perfect scenario to pick a point guard, with FVV being a short-term solution.

Jalen Green is there and I doubt they would want Dillingham/Green backcourt but you never know. They draft for BPA always it seems so if that’s Dillingham they will take him.

Plus having Amen likely being the PG too.

[LeBowen]

Amen's going to be their PG and Sheppard would be way better off the ball than Dillingham IMO. Guessing they'd play Risacher at both the 3 and 4.

Sheppard makes sense for them and Detroit.
I'm really high on Whitmore and Jabari is really good, I don't think they'd go for Risacher unless they think he's got all-star potential.

[DPG21920]

Id say theres close to 0% chance Dillingham goes to Washington at #2.

Hoping it goes Sarr to ATL, Risacher to WAS..

[baseline bum]

You'll feel better in the long run . . .

Why are you so high on Topic? He's a good passer with size but he's not getting to the rim in the NBA without either a midrange game or a three point shot, neither of which he has. And despite his size he's still not considered a good defender at all. Seems a very high risk player with a playing in China level floor.