2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[scott]

You're strawmanning my argument man, I never said Ayton was worth his contract. I said Phoenix was better off paying it because he was a valuable asset. Do you think they would have been better off with nothing instead of Nurkic + Allen? Because that's what you're going to have to argue to say the Suns shouldn't have paid Ayton.

I'm not trying to strawman anything, but whether or not Ayton is worth his contract is the point (at least the one I'm making).

Let's say the Spurs draft Risacher at #1 (or any other guy from this draft, it doesn't matter), and he goes out and put up Vassell like numbers but holds steady for a max extension based on the fact he's a former #1 pick. The fact will be that Risacher won't be worth a max extension, but the Spurs might "better off paying it" because the alternative will be losing him for nothing or having to trade him.

That's a ty scenario, and I'd much rather have a scenario where a #11 pick goes out and puts up the same performance, but only requires Vassell's extension (which is more what he's worth).

That's the only point being made here, which is why the Ayton-Jonas comparison is valid.

[scott]

Something else to keep in mind is that it was the Pacers who offered Ayton the max in restricted free agency. The Suns never had a choice between paying Ayton the max and paying him less than the max. Their only choice was to pay him the max or let him walk for nothing.

Matching the Pacers' max offer with the intention of trading him was perfectly reasonable imo, even if he wasn't necessarily worth the contract in a vacuum. Since one team (the Pacers) thought Ayton was worth the max, it would stand to reason that other teams might have thought the same. And I would imagine the Suns gauged interest in Ayton before deciding to match.

So, let me just say that I understand this point that you and baseline bum are making, and my counter is that this is a bad position to be. I'd argue that if Ayton was picked #14 and put up the same performance, he wouldn't have gotten that max offer sheet from IND and might have come to some reasonable extension with PHO (regardless of being traded later). That #1 pedigree ended up clouding the picture and leading to a bad contract. That's the situation we hope to avoid (which goes without saying, you want a #1 pick to perform better). When a #1 performs at this "pretty good, maybe there is more potential" level like an Ayton or a Hunter, they end up with contracts they don't deserve.

[baseline bum]

I'm not trying to strawman anything, but whether or not Ayton is worth his contract is the point (at least the one I'm making).

Let's say the Spurs draft Risacher at #1 (or any other guy from this draft, it doesn't matter), and he goes out and put up Vassell like numbers but holds steady for a max extension based on the fact he's a former #1 pick. The fact will be that Risacher won't be worth a max extension, but the Spurs might "better off paying it" because the alternative will be losing him for nothing or having to trade him.

That's a ty scenario, and I'd much rather have a scenario where a #11 pick goes out and puts up the same performance, but only requires Vassell's extension (which is more what he's worth).

That's the only point being made here, which is why the Ayton-Jonas comparison is valid.

I guess my beef with that argument is Risacher probably wouldn't get a max offer sheet signed if he's putting up Vassell numbers unless he's unbelievable defensively. If no team agrees you're a max player by actually offering max money you're not a max player. Also that would be after four years, not three. Spurs offered Vassell that deal because they thought he was better than his numbers and wanted to lock him up for cheaper than they thought he'd be in a year.

[scott]

I guess my beef with that argument is Risacher probably wouldn't get a max offer sheet signed if he's putting up Vassell numbers unless he's unbelievable defensively. If no team agrees you're a max player by actually offering max money you're not a max player. Also that would be after four years, not three. Spurs offered Vassell that deal because they thought he was better than his numbers and wanted to lock him up for cheaper than they thought he'd be in a year.

I generally agree (and that's what the history mostly bares out) - but Ayton is the counter example, IMO. Not a max player, but commanded max money.

I think Ayton threads a needle that you hope to avoid. Most of the top picks are either obvious max players, or are so underperforming that they get Fultz-like deals (usually on another team). It's the middling, Ayton-like performance that gets you into an undeserving contract situation.

Interestingly, in the case of Ayton, he seems to get credit for being a better defender than he is. When many on this board wanted to throw him a max offer sheet, it was done partially off the idea that he could be a two-way big man, but he isn't really a very good defender. Several years later, I'd still take Bid Daddy Val over him today (especially at a Big Daddy contract).

[scott]

Alright.... my mechanical Babbage analytic engine (built from scratch over 7 months out of Lego specifically for running these simulations) is done. After 2.4 trillion simulations, the Spurs get the top pick 10.5% of the time.

My PREDICTION (which is really just what I want to happen but I'm going to manifest it into existence):

Spurs get PICK #6
Raptors land on PICK #7 (pick conveys to San Antonio)

Yes, I'm going out on a bold limb, picking the single most likely individual scenario.

Thanks again Ariel for this fantastic thread.

[baseline bum]

Alright.... my machines Babbage analytic engine (built from scratch over 7 months out of Lego specifically for running these simulations) is done. After 2.4 trillion simulations, the Spurs get the top pick 10.5% of the time.

My PREDICTION (which is really just what I want to happen but I'm going to manifest it into existence):

Spurs get PICK #6
Raptors land on PICK #7 (pick conveys to San Antonio)

Yes, I'm going out on a bold limb, picking the single most likely individual scenario.

Thanks again Ariel for this fantastic thread.

100 minutes until we see how not worth it tanking the season was

[Dejounte]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.

[goliath]

If we leave this lottery and draft with the problem of having to pay two max slots in the future I would say this lottery and draft was an unqualified success.

[Ice009]

I didn't follow the Toronto pick throughout the season. What are the conditions (top 6 protected?), and what is it projected at?

[Mugen]

The league burying this on a Sunday afternoon on Mother's Day tells you all you need to know about the quality of this draft tbh

[Mugen]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.

You're giving PATFO way too much credit tbh. The Raps pick was a lock to convey this year until Barnes got hurt.

[LeBowen]

I didn't follow the Toronto pick throughout the season. What are the conditions (top 6 protected?), and what is it projected at?

[Knoxxx]

We need Ariel on here ASAP for play by play on how the picks reveal works for us.

[Knoxxx]

If we leave this lottery and draft with the problem of having to pay two max slots in the future I would say this lottery and draft was an unqualified success.

I know right, I can believe people thinking rookie contracts are a bad deal

[Dejounte]

You're giving PATFO way too much credit tbh. The Raps pick was a lock to convey this year until Barnes got hurt.

I wasn’t giving them kudos for having that as a potential objective. I’m trying to make sense of why they would tank in a weak draft tbh

[poopbox]

People in here talking about future max contracts for players who haven't been drafted yet

[Ariel]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that the goal of the tank was to increase the odds of getting the TOR pick than it was to get the highest pick possible. I think they’ll see this as a win if they don’t get a top 4 pick but get both picks, IMO.

I'm not scared of a top 4 pick, but yeah, probably harvesting Toronto's pick now rather than taking a chance next year is more important. Especially seeing how bad Toronto tried to tank at the end of the season, the fact that they don't want it to convey for whatever reason (they like the class better than anticipated, they plan to pivot and make the pick much worse next season) makes me want it to convey NOW.

[Knoxxx]

People in here talking about future max contracts for players who haven't been drafted yet

I know the insanity of it all! On the one hand, we suck at drafting so may as well not have ANY picks. You can’t make this chit up!

[Knoxxx]

I'm not scared of a top 4 pick, but yeah, probably harvesting Toronto's pick now rather than taking a chance next year is more important. Especially seeing how bad Toronto tried to tank at the end of the season, the fact that they don't want it to convey for whatever reason (they like the class better than anticipated, they plan to pivot and make the pick much worse next season) makes me want it to convey NOW.

Concur I don’t trust those POS

[Ariel]

We need Ariel on here ASAP for play by play on how the picks reveal works for us.

I could do that, I actually have a script that updates the entire tankathon table for any given reveal (i.e. conditioned on the known information), but since it needs to know the exact order at that point (odds change if the first reveal is 14th team or 13th and so on) it needs to happen in real time and there's too little time between picks. Plus I live in Argentina, so likely by the time the lottery is starting for me it probably ended for you all.

[SouthernFryd]

Whoever drafted Ginobili should get some sorta award or trophy. , that whole era of drafts was amazing. As compared to the most recent era...which sucks.

So, I don't know why people are not all aboard trading picks for solid players. The alternative, is letting these idiots draft again.

BTW...how long we have to wait until we find out what picks Spurs have? Is this an all day thing listening to rubber mouth analysts and crappy entertainment?

[baseline bum]

I wasn’t giving them kudos for having that as a potential objective. I’m trying to make sense of why they would tank in a weak draft tbh

Pop thought he could make Sochan a PG and then fell in love with Branham. It's pretty much on him.

[baseline bum]

Welp here's my roll... so maybe Topic and Holland? ROFL if Detroit picks #5 again.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Is the draft lottery live on League Pass? if not, where?

[thiste]

Let's pray