Forget Trae, let's go for Bridges or Brogdon
A possible scenario I see happening if we get Trae, thanks to
- spurs trade quite a few assets for Trae
- Pop forces Trae to work within The System and play offball WAAAAY too often (like how he has spent entire games not running a play for Vic)
- Trae doesn't do well, and underachieves
- PATFO sniffers talk out of their ass about how they were so right about Trae being a low IQ team killer!
Trae going elsewhere for a weaker deal os probably a best case scenario for us..
Any pick from LA is going to land in the 10 to 20 region, hard to rebuild with any of that. Interesting picks would have to be in 2030 and after. Do you think that Atlanta is going to spend 5 years in purgatory hoping to have high picks in 2030 and after? That's a lot of years to be ty for the fans, bad for business.
Ok, for the record, I am putting my take on this season and what to do out here, for everyone to scream insults about ...
Apologies, this is a wall of text, but I have given you headings so you can skip bits (I wish this board supported spoiler tags).
Are we tanking?
Yes, we are tanking this season.
I don’t believe for a second that the coaching staff spent all training camp looking at Point Sochan and thought: “Yeah, this’ll work in the NBA regular season!” Obviously, Point Sochan was going to lose you games, and they put it out there anyways. Then they went to Branham... When the obvious best PG on the roster is Tre Jones... The coaching staff are professionals and they are not that dumb.
“This draft is terrible, why would we be tanking?” Because this year, with Wemby in his rookie season, we can effectively tank our way into the top 5 lottery spots (provided Pop is willing to be enough of a goofball with the lineups and the defence...). Next year, with Wemby acclimated to the league, we won’t be able to get into the top 10 lottery spots (unless Wemby gets hurt).
What to do with the roster?
I think the biggest hole in the roster is at PG. We need an NBA quality starter (which means they need to be a triple threat – drive, pass and shoot the 3). I do not think there is anyone in the draft who we could rely on to be good enough as a rookie to fill that role (although there are definitely some that I think could grow into the role). Thus, we need to acquire such a PG, either a stop gap (2-4 years) or as a long term solution (7+ years). We can do so either as a free agent ,by trade, or by internal growth.
The options that I see:
1) Hope Tre Jones learns to shoot the 3 in the offseason.
IMO, this is a terrible option. He’s had that as a homework assignment in the offseason for 3 years so far, and it hasn’t worked yet... So I don’t think this is a good option.
2) Trade with the Hawks, either for DJ Murray or Trae Young. I don’t think this is a good option (either case), as the Hawks are going to insist on bending us over a table in any deal, due to the first DJ trade going so badly for them... and I don’t think that getting either of them puts us over the top. Thus we need to preserve some ammo (and the Hawks won't let us do that, even if they have to take a worse deal, because it would look so bad on their organization).
Aside: Basketball Philosophy
Both Trae and DJ are both Heliocentric guards (Trae significantly more so), and IMO, with Wemby on the team, I believe that you want the offense to focus through him, rather than someone else. I think the team would actually be best served with a PG who’s a game manager – gets the team up the floor and into the set (then doing whatever is required : cut, shoot/space from the perimeter, set pick, whatever), only calling his own number often enough to keep his attacking threat alive and respected.
The second philosophical question that I would ask, is “Is a long-term contender better off with an A+ and an A level players, or an A+ and two B+’s?”. We have the A+ guy in Wemby. Is he better off with a single A level running mate (Trae for example) or a pair of B+ guys? Duncan was an A+ with 2 B+ guys (Manu and Parker). Lebron + AD only resulted in 1 ring. Luka and Kyrie isn’t getting it done in Dallas. Giannis got it done with Khris and Jrue. It obviously depends on the players, but I the evidence leans towards the 3 man model. I think that makes Trae’s contract an issue; given the Spurs dislike of the lux tax, it locks you into the 2 man model...
End Aside
DJ vs Trae
As mentioned, I think ATL will only trade with us (after the first DJ trade), if it seems a rip-off in their favour. Given that, I think I would actually prefer to trade for DJ rather than Trae. He’ll be cheaper. For example, turning 25 and 27 into swaps (with us getting the better of the picks) would give them 2 firsts (their asking price). Going for Trae will (IMO of course) result in the Hawks insisting we go all in, and I don’t want to do that for a guy who a) will be a defensive liability, and b) might not fit with Wemby. To expand on b); what if Trae wants to be them man? As PG, and having the bigger contract for the next several years, Trae could force the team to be Heliocentric around him, even with Wemby on the team. A that point, we’d have to dump him and I believe it would be at a huge loss... Yes, Trae is implying all the right things now, but he has been a locker room issue for the Hawks. I also suspect he won’t be happy being traded, as I suspect he wants the DPE that he can only get from ATL Finally, Trae has never not been the focus of the team he’s on. Can he do it (personality wise)? Can he do it effectively? It requires a whole different mindset, that he has never had to bring to the table. DJ has been a #2 guy (both with Trae and with Demar/LMA)...
3) Free Agent: Tyus Jones
Ok, Tyus isn’t a sexy option, but I do think he’s the best option. He’s a qualitative upgrade over Tre, because he is a willing and capable 3 pt shooter (50% more volume 6.3 vs 4.2 shots/40 min) and much higher percentage (42.6% vs 27.7%). Which makes him an NBA quality starter. He is a game manager type, as referenced above in philosophy). He’s demonstrated he can be am effective starter with 2 teams now (Washington, and Memphis when Ja Morant was suspended for 25 games, Tyus was starting PG... with a better win % than what they put up with Ja playing). Getting him burns none of our draft capital (and probably a minimum of cap space), and I suspect we can get him for $80/4 yrs or less, which is a good to great contract for a starter level guard...
I'm constantly flip-flopping over this Trae Young trade. My core tells me this is a bad idea, then I watch the shows that are the games and I get on board.
At the end of the day, the goal of Wemby's tenure in San Antonio is to build a championship level team, not "just be good". Trae Young is a flawed star, and the higher we get to the top, the more evident it will become. I don't think it is smart to trade 4 picks that have more than a 50/50 chances of, at least two of them, being lottery picks, just to get a player that will probably prove to be the team's achilles heel when championship level ball is required.
Last edited by DAF86; 02-29-2024 at 07:38 PM.
the extra picks are great but they're house money. we already have our nuclear weapon. the idea of the tank was to accrue as many picks as possible so you have all the lottery picks possible. say we didnt land wemby and we instead took scoot or miller. ok, now we still need a lot more high caliber pieces, so those extra picks are necessary. some of those may bust. but we already cut in line by doing literally a 1 year tank and coming away with the golden goose of all golden geese
if you can pull off a trade for a young all star, borderline all nba caliber PG who offensively meshes very well with your nuclear weapon while still having all of your own FRPs, and even still holding an extra or 2 (in addition to holding some future swaps), its hard to pass up tbh
now if ATL is unreasonable as to price, then you tell them to off
If this was a Donovan Mitc we were talking about, I'll do it in a hearbeat. Trae Young, I don't know. I fear he might become unplayable on a championship series. That elite opposing teams will target him relentlessly untill it is obvious that he can't be part of a championship team.
Super valid... but the list of young all star PGs who are available is small, the list of young all star PGs without critical flaws is smaller. You can get away with it so long as you build the rest of the roster to fit around the main pieces (Wemby, Trae/Whoever) instead of just inserting them into whatever cluster of a roster you already have. Not entire sure this FO is up to that task.
I don't see how the Hawks can trade away talent to other teams without their draft picks. If they trade away DJM or Young they are unlikely to improve the team in the short term with what they get in return. The more they suck the better their pick and swap become.
There is no upside for them going elsewhere and there is for us. Their third alternative is they can ride the mediocrity treadmill until their players leave in FA. Spurs have more leverage here than the typical negotiation.
If the Hawks don't trade Trae. It's highly likely they trade Dejounte and attempt to retool around Trae.
They will NOT tank when they don't have their picks.
It is concerning that DJ and Young are that awful. Typically pairing a heliocentric player with another ballhandler always works. It is not a perfect pairing, Wemby at his peak won't need that much playmaking from Young, we see good offensive bigs thrive of limited playmaking in favor of off ball ability and/or defense. Jokic-Murray, Embiid-Maxey, Embiid-Butler, Zinger-Brown, Giannis-Middleton. With an off guard you can build versatility on offense and with a ballhandling wing versatility on defense. These are the two ideal pairings. It is always Wemby can cover for young on defense and young can throw lobs at wemby, repeated every time this two is discussed but has that ever worked. You are introducing 2 things that are exploitable in a playoff series, pick and roll heavy offense and a targetable/non switchable weak link. This is a problem that would only get worse as the years pass, cause the age of Lebron/KD has 6'8+ kids dribbling and shooting like guards. The 3 + D players are now 3 + D + dribble players. The offensive explosion and the height of guards getting bigger every season. The handoff offense that does not require elite ballhandlers. The future does not favor Trae and his value would be depreciated every season, years before Wemby peak. We are already seeing it now with the sharp decline of the ATL team, they can no longer hide him effectively on defense.
Last edited by rankingtear; 03-01-2024 at 11:30 PM.
And they are not going to attack Mitc ?
Mitc lost to the Nuggets cause he couldn't stop Murray from going for 40 every other game.
Brunson smoked him last year where the knicks won 3 of their 4 games by 10 or more.
I don't know who told you that Mitc wasn't a terrible defender, but they lied to you. Mitc is a TERRIBLE defender. He played with a multi time DPOY in Utah and he STILL couldn't stop Murray from 40 piecing him out the playoffs.
Hilariously enough the Knicks could have traded their assets for Mitc ...didn't...and then smoked him in the playoffs
pad300 ...
Tyus Jones is the 5th worst defenive guard in the NBA
What we'd win in scoring on his brother we'd lose in defense (and Tre is already not a defensive gem)
I agree on most of your other points tho
DJ seems more fit, cheaper and already Spurs compatible when too many doubt on Trae, he won't be as ball dominant either and waaaayyy better defender (when he wants to)
Trae has one advantage tho, he has links to Wemby via their peronnal coache (talks could be happening)
I don’t see us making any more trades with Atlanta as we fleeced them with the Murray trade which has not worked out for them at all. Also the price fir Trae is going to be way higher then what they gave us for Murray and I am not willing to pay that.
Pauleta14
I think Tyus Jones's defensive shortcomings are at least somewhat situational. When playing with Memphis and Minnesota, his average DRtg was 112 (over 8 years, varying between 110 and 114 year to year). In Washington it's 122 so far this year. Similarly with DPBM, he was negative in his rookie year, and again this year in Washington (-0.6), but the other 7 years of his career, he rates as a positive. I don't actually find the regression in Washington surprising: Jordan Poole as a defensive partner and basically squat for rim protection behind him... Also, Tre is not doing much (if at all) better than Tyus this year, DRtg 120 and DBPM -0.5 (and career DRTG 118, DBPM -0.5), so I don't expect Tyus to be a defensive downgrade (although he won't be as much of an upgrade as DJ would be).
PS Trae Young, Career DRTG 118 and Career DBPM -2.2
My point about Trae links to Victor via their personnal coach is that those 2 pobably know more than us if they are compatible.
If anything happens it'll be 100% bc Vic and Trae talked about the idea on their side
Advanced metrics and eye test. I'm not saying he's prime Bruce Bowen, he's way better than Trae Young, though.And they are not going to attack Mitc ?
Mitc lost to the Nuggets cause he couldn't stop Murray from going for 40 every other game.
Brunson smoked him last year where the knicks won 3 of their 4 games by 10 or more.
I don't know who told you that Mitc wasn't a terrible defender, but they lied to you. Mitc is a TERRIBLE defender. He played with a multi time DPOY in Utah and he STILL couldn't stop Murray from 40 piecing him out the playoffs.
Hilariously enough the Knicks could have traded their assets for Mitc ...didn't...and then smoked him in the playoffs
Advanced metrics and eye test don't stand up to real life performance. Trae has been good enough to be the best player on a team that made a conference finals. Mitc hasn't.
Mitc also borderline refused to give the ball to Gobert at times when they were in Utah, so I most definitely don't want him anywhere near Wemby, after literally seeing him refuse to consistently pass the ball to another big for years. Yuck.
And I don't know what "eye test" you could possibly be referring to when it comes to Mitc . He literally turned Brunson into a household name. Almost nobody knew who Brunson was on a national scale until he cooked Mitc in the playoffs when Luka was hurt. Imagine losing to the mavs...in the playoffs...when they are playing without Luka
He's "way better than Trae" but Murray dropped 40 on him
He's "way better than Trae" but Brunson became a house hold name playing against him
He's "way better than Trae" but Brunson dusted him again in last year playoffs
He's "way better than Trae" except for when he actually plays against other guards in the playoffs and they just relentlessly cook him to the point that the Jazz finally say "yeah enough of this trade this guy"
That is true, it does not stop once you trade for one. You still have to s out other asset to cover their weakness in a playoff series. How much more asset do you need to hide your defensive sieves now and years later as the league gets bigger and more skilled. ATL and POR spent almost a decade trying to figure that out. Why do you need to go through all that trouble for your second option. Who are you actually building around. People need to realize there are several ways to build a team and a star PG is not a requirement anymore.
You can get as emotional as you want but numbers suggest Mitc is the better player both on offense and defense, and, no, a flukey conference finals run won't change that, specially since Mitc 's numbers on the playoffs are better than Trae's too.Advanced metrics and eye test don't stand up to real life performance. Trae has been good enough to be the best player on a team that made a conference finals. Mitc hasn't.
Mitc also borderline refused to give the ball to Gobert at times when they were in Utah, so I most definitely don't want him anywhere near Wemby, after literally seeing him refuse to consistently pass the ball to another big for years. Yuck.
And I don't know what "eye test" you could possibly be referring to when it comes to Mitc . He literally turned Brunson into a household name. Almost nobody knew who Brunson was on a national scale until he cooked Mitc in the playoffs when Luka was hurt. Imagine losing to the mavs...in the playoffs...when they are playing without Luka
He's "way better than Trae" but Murray dropped 40 on him
He's "way better than Trae" but Brunson became a house hold name playing against him
He's "way better than Trae" but Brunson dusted him again in last year playoffs
He's "way better than Trae" except for when he actually plays against other guards in the playoffs and they just relentlessly cook him to the point that the Jazz finally say "yeah enough of this trade this guy"
Sry for late reply homie.
I really like this, if we managed to get Risacher AND Sheppard. I'm not sure that happens, but it'd be nice.
Only problem would be Pop.
I don't see any way Tre Jones loses the backup PG spot at this point, if he's willing to play ball money-wise. He knows all of Pop's schemes and the System in and out by now. I'm not saying we shouldn't get Sheppard, I think he's fantastic and after his game vs Mississippi State, hard to deny he's got a lot of "just what the doctor ordered." Just that I don't see him beating out Tre (completely) for minutes, at least next season. It's a Pop thing, I'm just not sure he coaches any backup PG (in our rotation) well next season.
I'm a Topic fan and it goes just as much for him. Pass first PGs who could be great in Game 1 are going to get the Pop treatment and ride the pine, go to the G-League, get DNPs et cetera.
So basically the same that happened to Jefferson and Aldridge? hahah.A possible scenario I see happening if we get Trae, thanks to
- spurs trade quite a few assets for Trae
- Pop forces Trae to work within The System and play offball WAAAAY too often (like how he has spent entire games not running a play for Vic)
- Trae doesn't do well, and underachieves
- PATFO sniffers talk out of their ass about how they were so right about Trae being a low IQ team killer!
Trae is an amazing game manager. He makes life on his teammates much easier on offense. He knows the game. His IQ is awesome. He knows three or four options for every drive he makes, and he often chooses the best one. He would make life much easier on not only Wemby, but vassell as well.
His presence alone would create a legitimate starting lineup in the NBA. Add another multi positional defensive forward and they're cooking something up. Wemby can make the team defense top 5 alone. If he had someone who could take the offense to top 10, which trae can do, then things start looking much better pretty fast.
Trae is a no brainer addition...as always, for the right price.
Could things go bad? Yes. Every decision can. This one would be filled with way more reasons why it makes sense than it doesn't.
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