2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[scott]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

You originally said: "If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot."

It's literally impossible for that to happen. Ariel quite clearly explained all the scenarios in the original post.

[Ariel]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

If a team below Toronto (thus below the Spurs as well) jumps into top 4 the highest the Spurs can pick is 6, that's because there would still be 4 teams with a worse record than the Spurs fighting for only 3 spots, so whomever doesn't make the top 4 will have no. 5 before the Spurs.

That said, yes, you're basically correct in that for the Spurs to get a top 4 pick AND the Toronto pick to convey then not only Spurs have to jump but also one (or more) teams besides Toronto (but not them). The odds a team below Toronto jumps (but not Toronto) are (roughly) 54%, if you add the constraint that the Spurs also jump to top 4 then you get to that 22.74% I said. If you want top 3 and not top 4 then that leaves you at 17.14% (add up the cells that are in rows 1-3 and columns 7-10)

Basically whatever scenario you want to find the odds to, simply find the cells in the table that meet that criteria and add them up. In the case you mention I already did it because it was precisely what I was interested in finding out and that's why I had already posted the number.

[DAF86]

Houston gets trashed routinely but they've drafted better than the Spurs TBH (Sengun at 16 without even having a pick, Cam Whitmore at 20, Tari Eason at 17, etc).

Sengun is the opposite of a blessing in disguise, imho. A player that is too good not to try and build around to, but a guy that, I think, will end up proving to be too flawed to ever build a true contender around.

He will just make the Rockets waste time.

[Ariel]

Sengun is the opposite of a blessing in disguise, imho. A player that is too good not to try and build around to, but a guy that, I think, will end up proving to be too flawed to ever build a true contender around.

He will just make the Rockets waste time.

I'll take that over the Primo blessing in disguise

[DAF86]

I'll take that over the Primo blessing in disguise

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now.

Even if we would have drafted Sengun and somehow still got Wemby, it is a bad fit. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.

[Ariel]

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.

Probably (but not necessarily). Doesn't make it any less of a mistake though. Anyways, the point was, Sengun was a great pick by Houston. Don't like him long term? No problem, if they trade him they'll get back their investment and quite a bit more.

[DAF86]

Probably (but not necessarily). Doesn't make it any less of a mistake though.

I edited my post to add that even if we would have gotten Wemby anyways, Wemby and Sengun is a bad fit.

You are right that PATFO needs to start hitting on more Senguns and Haliburtons over Primos, tbh. Still, Vassell and Sochan are objectively good picks. They are doing OK in terms of drafting.

[BacktoBasics]

If a team below Toronto (thus below the Spurs as well) jumps into top 4 the highest the Spurs can pick is 6, that's because there would still be 4 teams with a worse record than the Spurs fighting for only 3 spots, so whomever doesn't make the top 4 will have no. 5 before the Spurs.

That said, yes, you're basically correct in that for the Spurs to get a top 4 pick AND the Toronto pick to convey then not only Spurs have to jump but also one (or more) teams besides Toronto (but not them). The odds a team below Toronto jumps (but not Toronto) are (roughly) 54%, if you add the constraint that the Spurs also jump to top 4 then you get to that 22.74% I said. If you want top 3 and not top 4 then that leaves you at 17.14% (add up the cells that are in rows 1-3 and columns 7-10)

Basically whatever scenario you want to find the odds to, simply find the cells in the table that meet that criteria and add them up. In the case you mention I already did it because it was precisely what I was interested in finding out and that's why I had already posted the number.

You originally said: "If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot."

It's literally impossible for that to happen. Ariel quite clearly explained all the scenarios in the original post.

I do stand corrected. 6th not 5th is what I should have said.

[ambchang]

Had we drafted Sengun over Primo, we wouldn't have Wemby right now.

Even if we would have drafted Sengun and somehow still got Wemby, it is a bad fit. I literally wouldn't change a thing, tbh.

I’m not that siren I don’t believe sengun even moves that needle at all. He’s got the signs of an empty calories guy.

[CGD]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30

[scott]

Ran another 13.7 billion simulations, and about 10.5% of the time we got the number 1 pick. I'm going to let the sim machine run all night and see what happens when we get to a trillion.

[LeBowen]

Can't wait for spurstalk servers to go down one last time before the update.

[KingKev]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30

Yep, if this was Wemby’s draft year you skipping mother’s lunch for it?!?

[CGD]

Yep, if this was Wemby’s draft year you skipping mother’s lunch for it?!?

Nah, my mom would be watching too lol. Gotta chance to take her to see Wemby here in DC earlier this year, which was awesome.

[Atl Spur]

Nah, my mom would be watching too lol. Gotta chance to take her to see Wemby here in DC earlier this year, which was awesome.

Good deal!

[spurraider21]

this is going to be one of the most important spurs draft lotteries in the last 0 years

[Mugen]

this is going to be one of the most important spurs draft lotteries in the last 0 years

I still can't believe this franchise lucked into ing Victor

[Degoat]

Honestly whatever happens this Sunday for the lottery I’m fine with, we hit the Mega Lottery last year. Let things fall how they should.

[Dejounte]

Honestly whatever happens this Sunday for the lottery I’m fine with, we hit the Mega Lottery last year. Let things fall how they should.

exactly. Getting greedy with it will anger the basketball gods tbh

[spurraider21]

fwiw i care more about getting the raptors pick then where the spurs pick falls

like, i'd rather get 6 and 9 than 1

[Ariel]

fwiw i care more about getting the raptors pick then where the spurs pick falls

like, i'd rather get 6 and 9 than 1

If the Spurs get 2 picks and their own isn't top 4 then the 2 picks must be consecutive (6&7, 7&8, 8&9 or 9&10), so 6&9 can't happen.

[Ariel]

I believe this is at 3pm EST not 8:30

Yes, I already posted but can't modify the thread le:

I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.

It indeed appears it was moved recently, thanks:
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)

Can't change the thread le to reflect that, is there any way around this?

EDIT: Time has apparently been changed from 8:30 PM ET to 3 PM ET, can't change the thread le so hope this helps.

[Mr. Body]

Feel like the Spurs will take two rooks regardless of whether TOR conveys. Would rather the second rook be a lottery pick both for the roster crunch and the fact that we're looking at six potential lottery picks in the three drafts after this.

It's totally wild how many picks we have coming up.

[rascal]

I'm expecting Portland to get the top pick.

[Seventyniner]

The Spurs only have a 54% chance of getting the Raptors pick but it seems like far more than 54% of the scenarios people are posting involve getting both picks.

I'm prepared for the Spurs to have only #6.