2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[heyheymymy]

I ran 100,000 simulations on Tankathon and approximately 10.5% of the time we got the #1 pick. I'm going to increase the iterations to one million and see if that improves our odds.

lol

[BatManu20]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

[Mr. Body]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

Well, they've only had seven lottery picks in their entire history. And two of them were at 11 and 12, which are basically impossible to move down.

[spurraider21]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

if only we fell 30 spots in 2021 so we would have avoided primo

[BackHome]

Fully expecting the TOR pick not to convey. And our pick to fall for the first time in franchise history. Just feel like it’s our time tbh. We’re still the only team to never have a lottery pick fall.

The more I look at the 2025 draft the more I am hoping this happens as far as Raptors pick

[stnick2261]

I'm hoping we do not get a top pick in this draft because it would be an expensive rookie... and it would be really su ious to get 3 number 1 picks in a row (when we draft Flagg to play next to Wemby)

[Ariel]

I read somewhere that this years draft got moved to 2pm on abc. The night game is on TNT so ESPN has to adjust to show it before the early Knicks/Pacers game.

Also, the draft is happening on Mother’s Day.

EDIT: Keith Smith tweeted it, that’s where I read it.

It indeed appears it was moved recently, thanks:
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-draft-lottery-explainer

When is the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery?The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery presented by State Farm will take place in Chicago on May 12 (3 p.m. ET on ABC)

Can't change the thread le to reflect that, is there any way around this?

[Knoxxx]

I ran 10 simulations and we got two picks 5 or 6 times I forget. Lately tankathon likes to give us Ron Holland with the our 2nd pick and goes Topic then Sheppard with our first pick. It also likes Buzelis and puts C Williams in the 10-12 range l.

[scott]

I ran 10 simulations and we got two picks 5 or 6 times I forget. Lately tankathon likes to give us Ron Holland with the our 2nd pick and goes Topic then Sheppard with our first pick. It also likes Buzelis and puts C Williams in the 10-12 range l.

When I run TAT sims, if we get a high first pick and the TOR pick, we always take Topic first and then Buzelis. If Buzelis is taken, we can Holland. I would be happy with that outcome for the TOR pick, but I really don't want Topic, personally.

[shaq_h8ter]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

[Ariel]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

And Wemby demands a trade not 24 hours later

[CGD]

Damn, we need this date to get here soon. The takes here are getting stale, and we need new information.

[LeBowen]

Some archetypes should be avoided at all costs in the draft.

Guards - players with no shot shouldn't even be considered. I'm not talking current 3pt range, but overall shooting, since some of them even struggle at the line. I'd consider a point guard with no shot only if he's both an elite defender and playmaaker.
Wings - players that aren't guaranteed to be at least positive defenders shouldn't even be considered.
Bigs - unless it's Sarr since he's obviously BPA, don't even consider bigs.

[Joseph Kony]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

i am 100% confident that neither of those players will be drafted by the spurs should they get the #2 and #7 picks

[R. DeMurre]

Interesting side note to this year's draft analysis: that Dean on Draft guy hasn't posted on his substack or Twitter accounts since January. My guess is some team hired him as a consultant with the stipulation that he couldn't post any opinions on prospects until after the draft.

[onechance87]

what our pick in the 2nd round

[JPB]

Do we get to see devastated HOU fans funny vids too this year?

[Ariel]

Do we get to see devastated HOU fans funny vids too this year?

Houston gets trashed routinely but they've drafted better than the Spurs TBH (Sengun at 16 without even having a pick, Cam Whitmore at 20, Tari Eason at 17, etc).

[MultiTroll]

It's raining in Chicago today.

Does that affect the draft odds?

[BacktoBasics]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

I could be wrong but I think for this to happen not only would the Spurs have to jump into the top 3 but a 7 or later would have to jump as well. Not likely. If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot.

[scott]

Spurs will get Lotto spots #2 and #7.

Spurs will later draft Stephon Castle #2 and Zach Edey #7.

I'll get my Fire Brian Wright thread drafted up now

[scott]

Interesting side note to this year's draft analysis: that Dean on Draft guy hasn't posted on his substack or Twitter accounts since January. My guess is some team hired him as a consultant with the stipulation that he couldn't post any opinions on prospects until after the draft.

Or he is sitting in a Clark County jail cell, but hasn't gotten internet privileges yet. Dude seems like kind of a Vegas sleezeball (though I do generally like his takes, except for when he thought Wemby was overhyped and Saar was a better prospect )

[Ariel]

I could be wrong but I think for this to happen not only would the Spurs have to jump into the top 3 but a 7 or later would have to jump as well. Not likely. If the Spurs get the Toronto pick it’s likely they drop their own pick back to the 5th spot.

Chances Spurs get a top 4 and the Toronto pick conveys are 22.74%, and the percentage of times the Toronto pick conveys is roughly the same whether the Spurs get a top 4 pick or not, it's in the 1st post, as well as the odds for any combination.

[BacktoBasics]

Chances Spurs get a top 4 and the Toronto pick conveys are 22.74%, and the percentage of times the Toronto pick conveys is roughly the same whether the Spurs get a top 4 pick or not, it's in the 1st post, as well as the odds for any combination.

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

[couchman]

I understand odds. I’m speaking to what would actually have to happen. To get the Toronto pick someone has to jump. For us to get the Toronto pick and us to get into the top 3 we’d have to jump as well. It would take one team and us to jump into the top 3. Otherwise we drop to 5.

The third option would be two teams 7 or later jumping into the top 3.

Top 4 are decided by lottery drawing and then teams select in decending order after that based on records