An here's a few interesting stats, before if I find (or not) the pick by pick career expectations. Source seems reliable (somehow).
https://gitnux.org/average-nba-career-length/
Average NBA Career Length Statistics
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The average career length of an NBA player is 4.5 years.
Only 5% of NBA players last more than 14 seasons in the league.
Nearly 60% of NBA players have careers that span two seasons or less.
Players on guaranteed contracts average a length of 4.8 years.
players who have All-Star appearance average 11.7 career years in the NBA.
The average career length of an NBA first-round pick is about six years.
On average, NBA players retire at age 34.
Only 20% of NBA players play past their fifth season.
Shooting guards have the second longest career average at 4.8 years.
Players who make the NBA All-Rookie First Team average more than 9 seasons.
Power forwards have the third longest career average at 4.7 years.
The average age of NBA draft picks since 2000 is 21.
14% of NBA players have a career that lasts ten seasons or longer.
Players who make the NBA All-Star team at least once, on average, last 12.2 seasons.
Small forwards average 4.6 years in their careers.
The average player drafted in the lottery since 2000 played in the NBA for 10.6 years.
Point guards average 4.5 years in their careers.
NBA players who are 7 feet tall or taller average careers of nearly 10 seasons.