2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Dejounte]

Are people comparing him to MPJ just because of his height or?
MPJ is a low IQ wing. This is the first season where his decision making has looked solid.
Because of his non-existant fundamentals, he was always a subpar defender despite his size and athleticism.
He's averaging 13 shots in the past two seasons and is barely over 1 assist per game in Denver's fluid system. For comparison, Gordon is at 3.5.

He's not good at anything other than shooting and easy cuts when Jokic sets everything up.
Obviously having an elite 6'10 shooter is invaluable in the modern NBA, but when his shot is not falling, it often gets ugly. It's just that Denver has no depth.


I haven't seen that much of Risacher, but isn't he projected to be a good defender and a good team player, with his shot being the biggest question mark?

I mean, your description of MPJ is basically Risacher in a nuts from my repeated viewings of him. I’m not asking you to take my word for it. All I can say is I do the work that needs to be done to have a solid opinion on prospects because I enjoy basketball. I’ve had many good hits in the past, as well as some terrible ones too. But the main thing is, I always try to adjust the way I view the good and the bad attributes of players whenever I get it wrong. And Risacher could prove me wrong (I would hope so if he’s drafted by this team) and it will make me re-think my analysis of players. But I doubt he’ll prove me wrong.

[Truckules]

Lottery is in two weeks (Sunday May 12th) and it's interesting to note that Spurs and Raptors pick influence each other.

There are 5 possible outcomes for Spurs:

1) 21% likelihood: Spurs got a top 4 pick and a pick in the #7 to #9 range (#9 being unlikely).

2) 21% likelihood: Spurs got only a top 4 pick.

3) 33% likelihood: Spurs got two consecutive picks between #6 and #9 (most likely cases being #6+#7 and #7+#8).

4) 23% likelihood: Spurs got only one pick between #6 and #9 (getting #6 or #7 being the most likely).

5) 2% likelihood: Spurs got only pick #5.


Math was done quickly but it should be right with a 1% or 2% margin of error.
To me, the first 3 cases would be fine for Spurs. There are a 75% odd that the lottery end up with a positive outcome for Spurs.

Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, Olynyk, and Poeltl is a good lineup on paper, but I'm not sure if I would expect them to be more than a 4 seed in the east next year. The question is do you value pick 7 in this weak draft as much as 13 in next year's draft. Either way, I don't think the Spurs are complaining too much. I don't think there's a "bad" outcome to the lottery for the Spurs this year.

[sfernald]

So boys do we got have any consensus yet on the two players we want if we have two top 8 or so picks? Pop is waiting for the update..

[objective]

Other than significant event creation I can't really trust any college player being labeled as 'good' or 'great'. Way too many guys were really good college defenders who didn't rise above average in the NBA, and some well below.

College game is just too divorced from the NBA combined with talent flux within all of D-1 and systems to believe in. I only trust do ented events creation like steals, blocks, and deflections and even those have to be taken with a grain of salt. The advance stats aren't entirely trustworthy.

Vassell had the defensive numbers of a great great great defender but has disappointed compared to his college game when he had gaudy advanced stats that impressed the out of me like a ridiculous amount of pick and rolls guarded ending in turnovers. Sometimes it's all system based, Florida State just made Vassell, Barnes, and Patrick Williams look better than they were.

Culver was supposed to be a good defender at minimum. Davion Mitc drafted into the lottery on his defense alone, he probably wouldn't make any all defense teams even going 7 or 8 deep, while Caruso was another bench guard would. And on and on and on .... So when I see things like "Stephon Castle is a great defender" , can that be trusted enough to forecast to the NBA? Because Vassell was supposed to be great, and the best in his class ... And I don't watch enough college to have an informed enough understanding of the UConn system vs other teams systems to have confidence.

I have a little more faith in pro leagues where at least everyone was good enough to get paid and was working towards getting paid in the future, whereas college doesn't have that across the board.

[JPB]

Other than significant event creation I can't really trust any college player being labeled as 'good' or 'great'. Way too many guys were really good college defenders who didn't rise above average in the NBA, and some well below.

College game is just too divorced from the NBA combined with talent flux within all of D-1 and systems to believe in. I only trust do ented events creation like steals, blocks, and deflections and even those have to be taken with a grain of salt. The advance stats aren't entirely trustworthy.

Vassell had the defensive numbers of a great great great defender but has disappointed compared to his college game when he had gaudy advanced stats that impressed the out of me like a ridiculous amount of pick and rolls guarded ending in turnovers. Sometimes it's all system based, Florida State just made Vassell, Barnes, and Patrick Williams look better than they were.

Culver was supposed to be a good defender at minimum. Davion Mitc drafted into the lottery on his defense alone, he probably wouldn't make any all defense teams even going 7 or 8 deep, while Caruso was another bench guard would. And on and on and on .... So when I see things like "Stephon Castle is a great defender" , can that be trusted enough to forecast to the NBA? Because Vassell was supposed to be great, and the best in his class ... And I don't watch enough college to have an informed enough understanding of the UConn system vs other teams systems to have confidence.

I have a little more faith in pro leagues where at least everyone was good enough to get paid and was working towards getting paid in the future, whereas college doesn't have that across the board.

I can only approve that.

It's really about potential (which is what makes it so uncertain). College stats and success is not useless but really has to be put in context and perspective. I'm a bit surprised when I see College stats directly used to judge how a College kid teen WILL or even could fare in the NBA where the game is so much faster, smarter, higher and more physical and where you're facing the best in the world every night vs. a bunch of "random" teens who for 80% of them won't even have a pro career anywhere in College.

What's hard to judge is notably BBIQ and team ball in College which is a mess and honestly hard to watch with the best prospects who have the team build to showcase them independently of their mistakes... It's a bit diffreent in pro leagues where prospects are playing in more organised, structured systems among vets fighting for their contracts, with a hierarchy and more pressure. That"s the reason why the best euro prospects don't enter College programs but stay in Europe where it's better for their development.

[pookenstein]

Quickley, Barrett, Barnes, Olynyk, and Poeltl is a good lineup on paper, but I'm not sure if I would expect them to be more than a 4 seed in the east next year. The question is do you value pick 7 in this weak draft as much as 13 in next year's draft. Either way, I don't think the Spurs are complaining too much. I don't think there's a "bad" outcome to the lottery for the Spurs this year.

No way that is a top 4 seed in the East. Celtics, Philly, Bucks, NY, Magic are definitely better. Heat and Pacers most likely as well. And if the cavs don't all over sudden blow it up, they are as well.

[heyheymymy]

[Mugen]

Outside of maybe Clingan and Sarr, I can't think of a single top 10 prospect in this draft who wouldn't prefer to end up in San Antonio compared to the other teams in the lottery tbh.

[SpursBills]

Not too surprising. Spurs make by far the most sense for Dilly.

Does Dilly make the most sense for the Spurs? I think that's the question we're all trying to figure out

[baseline bum]

So boys do we got have any consensus yet on the two players we want if we have two top 8 or so picks? Pop is waiting for the update..

Probably Giddey and Hayward

[spurraider21]

Not too surprising. Spurs make by far the most sense for Dilly.

Does Dilly make the most sense for the Spurs? I think that's the question we're all trying to figure out

its him or sheppard. desperately need a lead guard that is a threat to pull up from 3 when defenders try to go under the screen. dillingham is much more explosive off the dribble though which plays well into wemby's roll game. sheppard is a solid pick and roll navigator as well, but just doesnt apply the same pressure dillingham does. the trade off is that sheppard at least brings some plus instincts and effort on the defensive end, even if he's not particularly great at the point of attack. i think he does enough there to at least be a net positive

topic provides neither the shooting pressure nor the defensive impact, but you can get a little wilder trying to project him. figure if he has anything close to the reported 7 foot wingspan theres at least the potential for him to learn to use that to his advantage, and its easier to hide a defender with solid size than a smurf. even with a sup optimal release, if he ever develops a solid 3 point shot, he'd be able to get it off pretty easily against the average PG who will be smaller than him. his FT% is very strong, so there are some signs. but its a lot more "ifs" with him, particularly given the compe ion level

[baseline bum]

its him or sheppard. desperately need a lead guard that is a threat to pull up from 3 when defenders try to go under the screen. dillingham is much more explosive off the dribble though which plays well into wemby's roll game. sheppard is a solid pick and roll navigator as well, but just doesnt apply the same pressure dillingham does. the trade off is that sheppard at least brings some plus instincts and effort on the defensive end, even if he's not particularly great at the point of attack. i think he does enough there to at least be a net positive

topic provides neither the shooting pressure nor the defensive impact, but you can get a little wilder trying to project him. figure if he has anything close to the reported 7 foot wingspan theres at least the potential for him to learn to use that to his advantage, and its easier to hide a defender with solid size than a smurf.

I got Dilly Plan A, Sheppard Plan B, and who the knows plans C-J. Sheppard doesn't have enough size for me put him over Rob. Maybe Buzelis and Topic Plans C & D?

[spurraider21]

I got Dilly Plan A, Sheppard Plan B, and who the knows plans C-J. Sheppard doesn't have enough size for me put him over Rob. Maybe Buzelis and Topic Plans C & D?

i still like risacher a ton. after those 3, as much as it hurts to take a non shooter, i'd swing at holland. topic only after that. for me the big drop is after those top 3

[baseline bum]

i still like risacher a ton. after those 3, as much as it hurts to take a non shooter, i'd swing at holland. topic only after that.

I meant to put Risacher Plan B, Sheppard Plan C. Buzelis is my Plan D for the size and hope that it's just G-League Ignite that made him look like a ty shooter. Topic probably next because what the is there left anyways? Really don't like Holland at all. Would probably go another boom or bust in Cody Williams ahead of him, though I don't like him much either.

[LeBowen]

There's no need for any point guard plans past A and B.
I still think combine and all the workouts will be the decisive factor for the big board.

I just don't buy into these conflicting reports about draft and potential trades.
I don't see them drafting a point guard and getting an all-star point guard in a trade, too much change for Pop.
Although I'd like to trade Tre and not offer him another deal since he's on an expiring.

[spurraider21]

I meant to put Risacher Plan B, Sheppard Plan C. Buzelis is my Plan D for the size and hope that it's just G-League Ignite that made him look like a ty shooter. Topic probably next because what the is there left anyways? Really don't like Holland at all. Would probably go another boom or bust in Cody Williams ahead of him, though I don't like him much either.

im not sure what im supposed to seeing from Buzelis. feels like sochan with a better shooting form. oh, he can kind of handle the ball and pass a little, but not really. he cant really shoot. is an effort defender who isnt particularly long/athletic. yeah maybe he becomes less sochan and more wagner. at least with holland you can see a path to him being an impact player. anybody that athletic who is committed to defense can find a place. look at the thompson twins. and i dont think his jumper is as bad as theirs

could be talked into Cody but he just doesnt look assertive at all, and that worries me. could see him being quite good in a year or two though if he starts putting it together. he has a solid baseline skill sit and very good length/build with a 3 point shot in development

[baseline bum]

im not sure what im supposed to seeing from Buzelis. feels like sochan with a better shooting form. oh, he can kind of handle the ball and pass a little, but not really. he cant really shoot. is an effort defender who isnt particularly long/athletic. yeah maybe he becomes less sochan and more wagner. at least with holland you can see a path to him being an impact player. anybody that athletic who is committed to defense can find a place. look at the thompson twins. and i dont think his jumper is as bad as theirs

could be talked into Cody but he just doesnt look assertive at all, and that worries me. could see him being quite good in a year or two though if he starts putting it together. he has a solid baseline skill sit and very good length/build with a 3 point shot in development

Sochan with a shot could be an interesting prospect. If I'm drafting for defense give me Castle over Holland. Yeah he's a terrible fit next to Wemby, but so is Holland.

[spurraider21]

Sochan with a shot could be an interesting prospect. If I'm drafting for defense give me Castle over Holland. Yeah he's a terrible fit next to Wemby, but so is Holland.

yeah castle is a better defender right now, but that was also playing on a loaded team with the luxury of having clingan behind him. supposedly he was a lead guard in high school who handled pick and rolls, but from what i saw at uconn he was more of just an opportunistic scorer off putbacks, cuts, etc. rarely saw him beat his man to the cup, is scared to pull up and shoot. and hes not some ball handling or passing wizard. at least with holland there's some serious juice and potential for him to be a #2 on offense

[scott]

If we get the TOR pick, double down on wings. Any two of Risacher, Buzelis, Holland. That's my meaningless vote.

[Ariel]

If we get the TOR pick, double down on wings. Any two of Risacher, Buzelis, Holland. That's my meaningless vote.

From an ideal roster construction standpoint, I'd be 100% with you: it's much easier to find competent guards once your wings are set. In this class, however, probably a few of the guards are safer picks and better fits, so I'd probably go 1 guard (Dillingham / Sheppard / Topic) + 1 wing (Buzelis / Risacher / Castle / Holland). But I wouldn't bet my house on anything this draft.

[spurraider21]

Sochan with a shot could be an interesting prospect. If I'm drafting for defense give me Castle over Holland. Yeah he's a terrible fit next to Wemby, but so is Holland.

the thing is, he didnt have much of a shot in the gleague. he at least has a reasonable form and had a history of being a strong shooter in college

buzelis also was a worst FT shooter in the gleague than high school, tho that can be partially explained away by the gleague's rules. i dont know the specifics, but i know that in at least some cir stances, the player shoots 1 free throw for both points, instead of taking 2 shots. and statistically, players shoot a higher % on the 2nd FTA than 1st when shooting 2, so with the "one shot for both points" system you are actually robbing the player of the more efficient of the 2 FTAs.

small thing, but could factor into some gleague FT%'s

[Silverheart80]

Dilly is a solid 'no' for me. If his defense is this abysmal in college, then there's no hope in the pros. The lottery-level guards and wings this year all have significant questions and could just as easily bust as succeed. Spurs can't afford another bust.

For me, Sarr is the choice. Put him together with VW and Sochan, and we go from one of the worst defenses to one of the scariest. Sarr's defense translates from Day One, and it'll only get better as his role becomes more defined. He's got offensive tools. Keep developing his outside shot. When Pop inevitably sits VW for 10-12 assorted games, or VW is injured, Sarr's also there to make sure the bottom doesn't fall out like it almost always did this year when VW was out. Sarr + VW together creates mismatch advantages every night. If the Spurs don't land the #1 in two weeks, trade up to get him.

If we get the TOR pick, I want Castle.

My ideal 2025 lineup:

Derrick White (UFA signing)
Alexandre Sarr
Jeremy Sochan
Stephon Castle
Victor Wembanyama

[baseline bum]

Dilly is a solid 'no' for me. If his defense is this abysmal in college, then there's no hope in the pros. The lottery-level guards and wings this year all have significant questions and could just as easily bust as succeed. Spurs can't afford another bust.

For me, Sarr is the choice. Put him together with VW and Sochan, and we go from one of the worst defenses to one of the scariest. Sarr's defense translates from Day One, and it'll only get better as his role becomes more defined. He's got offensive tools. Keep developing his outside shot. When Pop inevitably sits VW for 10-12 assorted games, or VW is injured, Sarr's also there to make sure the bottom doesn't fall out like it almost always did this year when VW was out. Sarr + VW together creates mismatch advantages every night. If the Spurs don't land the #1 in two weeks, trade up to get him.

If we get the TOR pick, I want Castle.

My ideal 2025 lineup:

Derrick White (UFA signing)
Alexandre Sarr
Jeremy Sochan
Stephon Castle
Victor Wembanyama

You mean 24-25 or 25-26? Because White is under contract next season in Boston. Not that the Spurs could have afforded him anyways when $25 million is about the best they could clear this summer. I love Castle but the team doesn't have the shooters to make him fit here. That starting five with Tre Jones instead of White would be Fratello Cavs level bad offensively and Vic would be constantly doubled and tripled.

[baseline bum]

yeah castle is a better defender right now, but that was also playing on a loaded team with the luxury of having clingan behind him. supposedly he was a lead guard in high school who handled pick and rolls, but from what i saw at uconn he was more of just an opportunistic scorer off putbacks, cuts, etc. rarely saw him beat his man to the cup, is scared to pull up and shoot. and hes not some ball handling or passing wizard. at least with holland there's some serious juice and potential for him to be a #2 on offense

I know this is a bad draft but this guy if he doesn't hit and pull new skills out his ass he screams Shanghai Sharks.

[rascal]

I don't think Castle will ever be a strong shooter. He is just awkward in his form.
Very stiff in the upper body and has a wide stance.