*** 2023 Election Night Thread ***

[Will Hunting]

Like I said, third rail issue.

The GOP would have been better off telling SCOTUS to abolish Social Security and Medicare instead.

Like Dak Prescott with first and goal from the 5 with no timeouts but 27 seconds left, needing a touchdown to win the game, field goal does you no good, and making the mind-numbingly stupid decision to audible out of a pass play when the pass has been the only thing working the whole game, and instead calling QB Power up the middle... with no timeouts left....... ummmmmm...........

Being a fan of the Cowboys and the GOP is insufferably miserable.


I still think Youngkin and Zeldin are the front runners for 2028 GOP.

I mean who else is it going to be .... Desantis? He's shot himself in the foot one too many times and he has terrible communication skills and is completely unpresentable, unlike Youngkin.


Side question Will Hunting , do you think the NC GOP and Trump re-consider not running Mark Robinson for Governor of NC, considering how bad Cameron did tonight in KY? I mean, you're not going up against an in bent, but still..... there's a lot of parallels to be drawn.

Mark Robinson and Daniel Cameron are very different so no. Robinson ran for Lt. Governor and won without any political background. He’s as grassroots as it gets and the NC GOP base adores him. Daniel Cameron is fake and awkward and was basically forced on Kentucky as the gubernatorial candidate by overpaid GOP consultants.

[Will Hunting]

Democrats had a good night but we need to get serious about what’s going on in NY. The state itself isn’t going to go red, but the races were losing in NY just show how toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten.

We lost a city council seat in the Bronx and there’s now a Republican Suffolk County executive for the first time in 20 years. People simply don’t want the city they live in to be sheltering busloads of news migrants everyday.

Because of coalition shifts we’re now the party that overperforms in low turnout elections (like yesterday) but next year will be a whole different ball game when the rubes are coming out in full force to vote.

[Thread]

Democrats had a good night but we need to get serious about what’s going on in NY. The state itself isn’t going to go red, but the races were losing in NY just show how toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten.

We lost a city council seat in the Bronx and there’s now a Republican Suffolk County executive for the first time in 20 years. People simply don’t want the city they live in to be sheltering busloads of news migrants everyday.

Because of coalition shifts we’re now the party that overperforms in low turnout elections (like yesterday) but next year will be a whole different ball game when the rubes are coming out in full force to vote.

They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their faces than stop those "toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten."

Though if they did they'd find MSM/CNN assisting in making that transition. Before you knew it (red) would be the bell cow on said {policies on immigration and crime.}

[Will Hunting]

They'd rather cut off their nose to spite their faces than stop those "toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten."

Though if they did they'd find MSM/CNN assisting in making that transition. Before you knew it (red) would be the bell cow on said {policies on immigration and crime.}

Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

[Thread]

Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

Your love of (abortion rights) rears it head again...the loss of that many Americans due to abortion starting in the early 70's was like an atom bomb was dropped. Sure, at first the numbers were acceptable, but then year after year, decade after decade it became dire to those who were privy to the stats and long range tables. Absolutely stunned. And so gov't R, or, D made the decision to let 'em in under the guise of humanitarian, yada, yads, yada. D's figured out quickly like Black, these Brown would vote not to 95% like Black, but, pretty damn close to that neighborhood. And it wouldn't matter how long it took to get them to the poll and mailboxes, "just get 'em here, get 'em a job and let them become fertile, give birth and we're set, well at least as set as we can be."

[Winehole23]

For now, Mr. Youngkin may be the best test case of whether, at the national level, the Republican electorate still has any use for a champion who isn’t an aggrieved bomb thrower.

bye now, Mr. Youngkin

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/04/o...-election.html

[Winehole23]

“I can’t pinpoint anything specifically, right? But it’s his vibe as far as what I get his intention is.”

[Winehole23]

[Thread]

In for penny.
In for pound.

[Spurminator]

That poor mother er has the worst copium dependency I've ever seen.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Mark Robinson and Daniel Cameron are very different so no. Robinson ran for Lt. Governor and won without any political background. He’s as grassroots as it gets and the NC GOP base adores him. Daniel Cameron is fake and awkward and was basically forced on Kentucky as the gubernatorial candidate by overpaid GOP consultants.

I agree, and I think a lot of conservatives in KY thought the same, not just the partially true but impractical justification that they're racist. They know very well their state house, state senate, state court are all roughly 80-20% supermajority that can smash through all bills with Beshear having no veto power so they can afford to have a Democrat figurehead for 4 more years whose job is basically to present himself well and wave to the crowd every year at the Kentucky Derby and other state events like that.

Even though he's more progressive ideologically than his blue dog father, Steve, he's still a Kentucky native son and Daniel Cameron is not only socially awkward but he's a carpetbagger from Plano, Texas. Beshear has a 59% approval rating in KY while Biden's approval rating in KY is roughly half of that. He's a figurehead with good public speaking ability and literally means nothing for state legislation and Kentucky voters know it.

I could definitely see Cameron upsetting the base if he had defeated Beshear and gone on to become governor. Herschel Walker was another one (senate candidate, but still black GOP who McConnell hand selected and was basically unopposed for the senate primary) who was even more awkward than Cameron and wasn't all that popular with the base even though conservatives were hoping he'd beat Warnock because they hate Warnock much worse.

Robinson on the other hand has been touted by the MAGA base as being one of their favorite grassroots candidates, like Byron Donalds an actual authentic conservative on the political issues (not necessarily the strictly social or economic issues, but the "other" issues like immigration and foreign policy that Trump touts) not just another milquetoast black republican like Tim Scott, who IMO is in the same category as Cameron for being just a generic black GOP politician. Scott has certainly made an ass of himself in presentation/speaking skills in the first two GOP primary debates and in general.

Democrats had a good night but we need to get serious about what’s going on in NY. The state itself isn’t going to go red, but the races were losing in NY just show how toxic far left policies on immigration and crime have gotten.

We lost a city council seat in the Bronx and there’s now a Republican Suffolk County executive for the first time in 20 years. People simply don’t want the city they live in to be sheltering busloads of news migrants everyday.

Because of coalition shifts we’re now the party that overperforms in low turnout elections (like yesterday) but next year will be a whole different ball game when the rubes are coming out in full force to vote.

Yup, and looks like the GOP did save face in Virginia after all, and even though NYT hasn't yet called the last 2 house races and the last Senate race (Diggs), other outlets have, and Owen did end up defeating Gibson after all. No Democrat Lauren Boebert for you... sorry bro!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gislature.html

Looks like the final tally in Virginia is::

Senate: 21D - 19R (GOP actually flipped a seat)
House: 51D - 49R (Dems flipped two seats)

Youngkin won't get a first trimester abortion ban through, but he can still potentially get some conservative-ish legislation through if he can get one senator and one or two house members to make a deal.

***

As for the New York stuff, that's kind of what you get electorally speaking when you have hard-left policy on the issues that are more important than abortion, such as immigration, crime, [free trade], [covid], being soft on homeless, and the like.

Ironically Covid saved Hochul's job and the state from potentially becoming purple to pink by 2024. The 2020 Census didn't do Florida justice; it's likely that if the Census were held in 2022 instead of 2020, that Florida would currently have 5 additional House seats and electoral votes, and New York would have 2 less, NJ, CA, and MA would all have 1 less. The great Covid conservative migration of 2020-21 was very real.

Red already is the bell cow on immigration and crime despite the media being very pro mass immigration.

If Biden loses next year it will in large part be due to the unforced error of opening up the southern border with stupid executive orders that implement horrible asylum policies.

Yup. Trump re-emphasizing the policies (anti-immigration, protectionist on trade, tough on crime, tough on terror) that won him 2016 will go perhaps even further in 2024 especially considering Islam is once again a threat as it was in 2016 but wasn't in 2020. He could even win the popular vote this time as well as winning the rust belt and sun belt states. These midterms and off year elections really don't mean jack for Trump/Biden.

Hate him or not, Trump is one of the best GOP candidates out there in finessing the abortion issue... someone like Zeldin is, too. Someone like Desantis really can't because he pushed for that six week abortion ban in Florida which kind of makes him unelectable at the federal level these days.

Your love of (abortion rights) rears it head again...the loss of that many Americans due to abortion starting in the early 70's was like an atom bomb was dropped. Sure, at first the numbers were acceptable, but then year after year, decade after decade it became dire to those who were privy to the stats and long range tables. Absolutely stunned. And so gov't R, or, D made the decision to let 'em in under the guise of humanitarian, yada, yads, yada. D's figured out quickly like Black, these Brown would vote not to 95% like Black, but, pretty damn close to that neighborhood. And it wouldn't matter how long it took to get them to the poll and mailboxes, "just get 'em here, get 'em a job and let them become fertile, give birth and we're set, well at least as set as we can be."

I still don't really understand the hard right's stance on abortion, especially from an analytical, electoral perspective. One, it's a third rail issue, in the sense that an overwhelming percentage of the USA population is pro freedom to choose. Second, the vast majority of aborted fetuses were by Democrat, liberal voters, certainly not GOP voters, so the vast majority of the aborted potential babies are the ones who would have voted overwhelmingly Democrat, minimum 80-20%, particularly in the black community as blacks have the highest abortion rate per capita by a mile. Then you have white liberals who abort far more than white conservatives, and white moderates who could vote either way but generally only abort if (a) they're too young to realistically provide for kids, or, (b) the fetus has mutations like missing limbs, re ation, down's syndrome or other trisomies that would give the potential baby and the parents a very challenging life, so it's better to have the abortion in that case.

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?

Absolutely not. And not in 2022, either. Nor, 2018, 2012, 2008, 2006, or any other recent year in which the Democrats outperformed us.

The only case still remains 2020 in 4-5 states and that's because a lot of shady happened under the table during peak covid timeframe including the bio-engineered origins of covid itself and the evil geniuses like Fauci behind it, working with the Chinese to unleash a bio-terror weapon to "experiment" on the masses and create world chaos.

The problem isn't early vote/mail in votes, like what spurraider21 posted in most cases that system works; it's just that due to covid and all the covid policy and chaos caused by covid, and the covid-associated summer 2020 riots et all (sorry Will Hunting, your 2028 pet cat Walz will have to eat that sandwich in a potential presidential primary too ... still say Newsom and Whitmer are your best for '28) ... there is a reasonable argument to be made that there was a massive cluster due to overloading of resources and it was very easy to cheat in 2020, really for both sides, but the Dems seized the opportunity to stuff in extra votes that the GOP did not.

The QAnon claims of elections post-2020, such as Kari Lake's, were "stolen/cheated/rigged" are absolutely baseless. Covid has been over for a long time now.

[Thread]

I agree, and I think a lot of conservatives in KY thought the same, not just the partially true but impractical justification that they're racist. They know very well their state house, state senate, state court are all roughly 80-20% supermajority that can smash through all bills with Beshear having no veto power so they can afford to have a Democrat figurehead for 4 more years whose job is basically to present himself well and wave to the crowd every year at the Kentucky Derby and other state events like that.

Even though he's more progressive ideologically than his blue dog father, Steve, he's still a Kentucky native son and Daniel Cameron is not only socially awkward but he's a carpetbagger from Plano, Texas. Beshear has a 59% approval rating in KY while Biden's approval rating in KY is roughly half of that. He's a figurehead with good public speaking ability and literally means nothing for state legislation and Kentucky voters know it.

I could definitely see Cameron upsetting the base if he had defeated Beshear and gone on to become governor. Herschel Walker was another one (senate candidate, but still black GOP who McConnell hand selected and was basically unopposed for the senate primary) who was even more awkward than Cameron and wasn't all that popular with the base even though conservatives were hoping he'd beat Warnock because they hate Warnock much worse.

Robinson on the other hand has been touted by the MAGA base as being one of their favorite grassroots candidates, like Byron Donalds an actual authentic conservative on the political issues (not necessarily the strictly social or economic issues, but the "other" issues like immigration and foreign policy that Trump touts) not just another milquetoast black republican like Tim Scott, who IMO is in the same category as Cameron for being just a generic black GOP politician. Scott has certainly made an ass of himself in presentation/speaking skills in the first two GOP primary debates and in general.

Andrew, the voice of reason & moderation in troubled times.

Ange

[ChumpDumper]

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?

[ChumpDumper]

muh 22

[Thread]

So no claims of MASSIVE VOTE FRAUD after you guys lost the highest profile elections again?

You just plain failed this time?

Trump President.
Not Clinton.

[Thread]

I still don't really understand the hard right's stance on abortion, especially from an analytical, electoral perspective. One, it's a third rail issue, in the sense that an overwhelming percentage of the USA population is pro freedom to choose. Second, the vast majority of aborted fetuses were by Democrat, liberal voters, certainly not GOP voters, so the vast majority of the aborted potential babies are the ones who would have voted overwhelmingly Democrat, minimum 80-20%, particularly in the black community as blacks have the highest abortion rate per capita by a mile. Then you have white liberals who abort far more than white conservatives, and white moderates who could vote either way but generally only abort if (a) they're too young to realistically provide for kids, or, (b) the fetus has mutations like missing limbs, re ation, down's syndrome or other trisomies that would give the potential baby and the parents a very challenging life, so it's better to have the abortion in that case.

It's terribly difficult for people to separate the abortion issue past the first hurdle...killing a child in the womb. Some people///and more each day as boomers die out and boomers finally give up the ghost and go along to get along, and move decidedly away from the dead babies, seal 'em off from their lives. I don't understand how, but to deny it is wrong and wrong-headed. That ain't me. Ever. It's my religion.

[Cry Havoc]

He won't survive a primary. Not to mention, I don't want anybody from a red state running this country.

Oh I don't think he's geared/gearing up for a White House run. But being a successful Gov gives him a lot of flexibility for appointments from whoever is President when he's done with Kentucky.

[Will Hunting]

Yup, and looks like the GOP did save face in Virginia after all, and even though NYT hasn't yet called the last 2 house races and the last Senate race (Diggs), other outlets have, and Owen did end up defeating Gibson after all. No Democrat Lauren Boebert for you... sorry bro!

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gislature.html


Looks like the final tally in Virginia is::


Senate: 21D - 19R (GOP actually flipped a seat)
House: 51D - 49R (Dems flipped two seats)


Youngkin won't get a first trimester abortion ban through, but he can still potentially get some conservative-ish legislation through if he can get one senator and one or two house members to make a deal.


***

It's a stretch to say that Republicans saved face in VA. They won every seat that Biden won by 9% or less, but they lost every seat Biden won by double digits. The obvious takeaway from that is Youngkin did everything he possibly could to hold onto the coalition that used to give Rs a governing majority in VA, but national trends (due to issues like abortion) are starting to takeover down ballot in ways they haven't before and basically foreclose any chance Rs have of winning VA.

The problem for Youngkin is that he's a victim of his own lofty expectations - the media and the average voter aren't going to drill into the data at a granular level and conclude Youngkin did everything he could to overcome a national brand that makes winning in VA impossible, the narrative is going to be that Youngkin failed to achieve his goal.

***

As for legislation, spurraider21 can confirm this, but Youngkin isn't going to be able to get any legislation through that he didn't already pass for two reasons.

First, for the last two years, Rs could make sure that Youngkin's agenda at least got a vote in each chamber and that's no longer the case. A Dem house of delegates speaker now controls which bills get a floor vote. I'm not sure what powers Shears has as senate president but that's unchanged.

Second and probably more important, the conservadems in the VA state leg who blocked a lot of what Ralph Northam wanted & who Youngkin could previously convince to support his legislation were either primaried out or retired this year (Morrissey and Chap Petersen being the two most notable examples). Even though the Dems have the same slim 21-19 senate margin they had in 2022, the 21 Dems are much more partisan firewall than what Youngkin previously dealt with.

[Will Hunting]

"evil geniuses like Fauci"

Take a guess as to which president hired Fauci and made him a powerful government bureaucrat?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

"evil geniuses like Fauci"

Take a guess as to which president hired Fauci and made him a powerful government bureaucrat?

I'm not going to sit here and stand and pretend to support Reagan or GHWB.

I would have easily backed Reagan over Carter because Carter's economic and foreign policy was awful, but probably would have voted Dukakis/Perot if I was alive/old enough back then. Not a fan of increased taxes or spending but Reagan/GHWB's policy on free trade and pro mass immigration from ty turd world countries definitely contributed to the decline of the Michigan economy and other upper Midwest states and rise in China's market share internationally and within the USA. Not to mention that Reagan was completely blind to how mass turd-world immigration has shaped white replacement across the USA as well as rigging elections in certain states like CA in favor of the Dems.

[Will Hunting]

Anyway, Pennsylvania is the state where I think results are truly devastating for Republicans in ways people don't realize.

Rs didn't win the state supreme court seat and they weren't expected to, fine, but they lost their majority on the State Superior Court and their majority on the Commonwealth Court is now 5-4 (both courts have been under GOP control for a long time).

The ancestrally Republican Philly suburbs are also starting to vote blue down ballot. Bucks County in particular is an area that's stayed stubbornly Republican in local races until yesterday, when Dems basically won everything they could.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

And yes, Fauci was just as evil back in the 1980s when he stood for the monopoly of the low-efficacy BigPharma treatment for HIV/AIDS and quashing any and all potential cures that were set to hit the market.

Fauci, like other evil geniueses like Bill Gates, have always been pro-population control criminal masterminds.

Both Reagan/Bush and Dems are at fault for not calling that out.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Anyway, Pennsylvania is the state where I think results are truly devastating for Republicans in ways people don't realize.

Rs didn't win the state supreme court seat and they weren't expected to, fine, but they lost their majority on the State Superior Court and their majority on the Commonwealth Court is now 5-4 (both courts have been under GOP control for a long time).

The ancestrally Republican Philly suburbs are also starting to vote blue down ballot. Bucks County in particular is an area that's stayed stubbornly Republican in local races until yesterday, when Dems basically won everything they could.

I agree.

I've been saying this for a long time. Between that result, and Fetterman winning by 4.9% last year (not Shapiro winning, that was expected and a non-harbinger of anything, plus Mastriano was a nobody), PA is a worrisome state up and down the ticket for the GOP. I'm actually one of the least bullish conservative millennial pundits with regards to Trump and future GOP candidates winning PA at the presidential level and winning senate seats there.

Unlike with MI and WI, where the GOP has tons of room across the state to grow, tons of pink and purple counties to turn dark red. I've been saying this for awhile now... the GOP has minimal room to grow, probably in NE PA and the exurban Pittsburgh region. The GOP is already fully maxed out in the rural middle of PA. However, the Dems have equal or better room to grow in the ever-growing, multiracial, college-educated Philly collar suburbs. And it's not just abortion -- it's the other issues, too.

That, and Bob Casey potentially carrying Sleepy Scranton Joe, is why I came up with this 2024 map::





Of course, you can flip GA or AZ and Trump wins, but the point still comes across. Very much won't be surprised if PA votes to the left of MI and WI with trends.

Meanwhile, abortion now being fully legal and finalized in OH and MI should trend both states to the right IMO... the GOP has punted on this in MI and they obviously will have to in Ohio now too while focusing on the most important issues. Wisconsin is a wild card. Arizona will have the abortion ballot next year possibly but the AZ GOP should fight to have the ballot happen in say August and not on the same ticket at the presidential election which skews turnout.

[Will Hunting]

Michigan is going to have expanded voting access in 2024 in ways it hasn't had before (namely, early in person voting). That means more vote banking in Detroit and higher turnout when Biden won MI in 2020 despite Detroit having only 50% turnout.

There's simply no logical reason to think that it trends right so drastically when the Michigan GOP's apparatus is broke and in complete shambles (namely because the state GOP chair is a transgender black wildebeest who literally threatened to murder her own family).

You can convince yourself that abortion won't matter anymore all you want but the fact it's now been legalized in Michigan won't make the fear mongering about a federal ban any less effective.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Michigan is going to have expanded voting access in 2024 in ways it hasn't had before (namely, early in person voting). That means more vote banking in Detroit and higher turnout when Biden won MI in 2020 despite Detroit having only 50% turnout.

There's simply no logical reason to think that it trends right so drastically when the Michigan GOP's apparatus is broke and in complete shambles (namely because the state GOP chair is a transgender black wildebeest who literally threatened to murder her own family).

You can convince yourself that abortion won't matter anymore all you want but the fact it's now been legalized in Michigan won't make the fear mongering about a federal ban any less effective.

Wayne County margins in general will trend to the right, especially with the UAW and Israel/Hamas stuff, plus slightly increased black support for Trump. It won't zoom right, but the margins will be just enough, and outstate in what's anticipated to be the highest turnout election ever in 2024, the light red counties will darken and turn out in droves for Trump. Outer Grand Rapids metro flips back pink. They might be lukewarm or even positive on Whitmer (not too far off from a Beshear/Laura Kelly scenario) but they loathe Biden and yearn for the economic prosperity of Trump who built his whole campaign around being pro energy, pro American worker, tariffs, trade protectionism, etc.

While there's no denying Karamo is an incompetent Q- 100% and lost by double digits in a winnable statewide race last year, she's going to get the axe sooner than later. However, the overall MI GOP is no more incompetent than, say, the GOP's in Kansas, Utah, Nebraska, Alaska. Doesn't mean those states won't go likely-to-safe red on the federal level.

Early in person voting in a state like Michigan also benefits conservative rural area voters because they won't be forced to go drive out from their rural ranch house through the gravelly country road and dodge deer all the way to the precinct on a cold, wet/snowy November Tuesday and stand in line when they can simply vote in person in October for Trump at their convenience or drop their paper mail ballot in the dropbox any favorable day they like weeks before election day.

As we've learned in, say, Virginia and Kentucky, statewide and federal elections are two completely separate animals. There's no denying Trump and the Trump effect flipped the state's federal partisan lean drastically to the right. Before Trump, the MI GOP governor candidate was winning by a lean margin (he should have lost, considering the Flint water crisis that year) in the same ticket the no-name Democrat US Senate candidate (in an open seat!!!) won by nearly 15%. That, of course, was 2014. It seems as if the roles are reversed 180 degrees due to Trump. Whitmer wins, not unexpectedly, on the same ballots as weed and abortion. But Trump outright wins in 2016 and comes very close in the covid-rigged year and John James in the Senate even closer even though he lost in 2018 which admittedly was a blue wave year.

I predict Trump to win MI by around 2%, potentially carrying a competent Senate candidate just across the finish line in the open Senate race. If it's someone like Peter Meijer (doubtful), Meijer likely loses because the base hates him because he torpedoed his political career with the impeachment vote.

The fear mongering in a state like Michigan for a federal ban is less emphatic if Trump, who's frequently touted the Clinton "safe, rare, legal" rhetoric on abortion since the 1990s, is the nominee. If it's an abortion hawk like say Desantis, Pence, or Scott, they will lose Michigan by Dubya margins.