2024 Draft Lottery Thread - Sunday May 12, 2024 8:30 ET

[Mr. Body]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

He would still be on the team and developing if he wasn't a with bad at ude. Maybe he wouldn't be great, but there's no way of knowing since he basically tanked his own career.

[scott]

Every argument I see with Dillingham falling that far is based on no one taking him because they already have a PG. I don't buy that all these teams are going to pass on talent and him falling to #8 only makes sense it you think he's an overrated shooter, overrated ballhandler, and overrated attacker off the dribble. God I hope they don't get hung up on size again at the PG position like when they screwed the pooch on Primo's scrub ass.

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

[Mr. Body]

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

I do think Dillingham has an elite skill-set. His variety of shots, shooting, handles, and quickness are all elite. They're just attached to a tiny guard who has pretty bad defense. I've said elsewhere that if you combined this draft with 2023, he'd go 6th after Wemby-BMill-Scoot-Twin-Twin. There's no other player in this draft who I think very obviously goes there. It's just that teams are shy to take him top 3.

[scott]

I do think Dillingham has an elite skill-set. His variety of shots, shooting, handles, and quickness are all elite. They're just attached to a tiny guard who has pretty bad defense. I've said elsewhere that if you combined this draft with 2023, he'd go 6th after Wemby-BMill-Scoot-Twin-Twin. There's no other player in this draft who I think very obviously goes there. It's just that teams are shy to take him top 3.

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

[td4mvp2k]

Yeah all these great guards out there like Tre Jones, Blake Wesley, Devonte Graham, and Malaki Branham

theres nothing wrong with jones he'd be great backup on many teams and branham who's still developing isn't a pg.. none of those guys were top 10 picks

[baseline bum]

If he were as talented as you're making it seem, he'd be the consensus #1 overall pick in this draft. We're not talking about some elite guard prospect here... he's just another guy in the mix of this overall underwhelming class.

So you think he's overrated as a shooter, ballhandler, and penetrator? Of course he's not a consensus #1, you gotta be Iverson level talent to be that high at his size.

EDIT: OK a Trae Young type talent too since this is such a weak draft and you mentioned him

[baseline bum]

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

No question he'd go #1 in this draft.

[SpursGenius]

Trae young sux. He is a team killer I wish ST would forget the scrub

[sfernald]

I'm not betting on them not picking a player, I'm betting on them not picking a certain archetype.

Pistons need everything except for a point guard because Cade has shown he's got all-star potential. Maybe they take Sheppard and have him play off the ball.
Blazers have Scoot and too many guards.
Hornets have Lamelo.

Unless Dillingham looks like the next big thing in workouts, they're not taking him.
Meanwhile, Spurs will have to take third or fourth choice wing with #8 if they draft Dillingham with #4.

Idk, I just don't see Dillingham as a must pick at #4 with three teams with point guards as centerpieces picking after the Spurs.
I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.

The problem is you’re not seeing the teams lurking in the background ready to pounce and desperate for a point guard. For example, NO wants a new point guard badly to pair with Zion and might be willing to trade Ingram (reportedly wants to trade him) to Detroit, Houston or other teams for picks and players that fit better around Zion (especially a point guard). And there are other teams than just NO. It’s better to just take the best player first and not play games here

[scott]

So you think he's overrated as a shooter, ballhandler, and penetrator? Of course he's not a consensus #1, you gotta be Iverson level talent to be that high at his size.

EDIT: OK a Trae Young type talent too since this is such a weak draft and you mentioned him

That's my point. If you're not consensus #1 in this draft, you're kind just in a glob of a bunch of other players. I don't think Dillingham is a good enough prospect relative to others for teams like DET, CHA and POR to take him over better fits (which was what we were originally talking about). That's how he drops to 8. If he were a better prospect that those teams absolutely can't pass up, then that same thing would be true of everyone picking 1-4.

I don't think Dillingham's skills are overrated, I think they are appropriately rated, which is why he's not the consensus top pick and is in the grinder with all these other guys. That's the appropriate rating.

[scott]

No question he'd go #1 in this draft.

Of course Trae would, which is what I said. But it's because Trae matched all of those skills with elite production. If Dilly had that, he'd go number 1 too. But he doesn't, which is why he isn't the consensus #1.

[sfernald]

Watching Castle defensive videos makes me drool. If he develops a shot he might be the best player in this draft. A fun scenario would be Sarr drops to #4 and then we snag Castle at #8. Then we have one of the best defenses in the league next year. Sure we might shoot less than 30% from three but how would that be different from this year anyway?

[T Park]

the Rob Dillingham slander makes zero sense

[kobyz]

He would still be on the team and developing if he wasn't a with bad at ude. Maybe he wouldn't be great, but there's no way of knowing since he basically tanked his own career.

Buzelis is the biggest project as s prospect in the draft, not worth top 8 selection, not even lottery selection...

[SouthernFryd]

Buzelis shot 27% from three.

He's also a little soft.

Moves well and has decent handles for 6'10". But, 27% from 3 and being soft...I dunno. I think 2nd round prospect.

I would trade #4 and Keldon as well as mixing in some of the Atlanta picks we have....for Trae. If they want more, well...look elsewhere. We need more than just Trae. Need at least 1 top 10 pick this year and at 8, we should be able to get something. If you take Brian Wright out of the decision making process.

[exstatic]

But there's always a Derrick White every once in a while.

I would take Knecht at 29 in a heartbeat. Not so much in the lottery.

[exstatic]

Buzelis shot 27% from three.

He's also a little soft.

Moves well and has decent handles for 6'10". But, 27% from 3 and being soft...I dunno. I think 2nd round prospect.

I would trade #4 and Keldon as well as mixing in some of the Atlanta picks we have....for Trae. If they want more, well...look elsewhere. We need more than just Trae. Need at least 1 top 10 pick this year and at 8, we should be able to get something. If you take Brian Wright out of the decision making process.

Weren’t you the one just screaming about defense in another thread? Because Trae ain’t that.

[CGD]

Matas Buzelis scares me, gives me Samanic PTSD. I’d like to be wrong about him but of all the guys in the 1-8 range he would take the most convincing for me to jump on board with.

Why, bc he’s a tall white boy?

He’s the opposite of Luka who hated basketball and was basically a lazy bum riding on some basic talent. Matas is a dog, and maybe a little too confident in his abilities to times. Rather be in a position to reign in the latter, than the the other way around tho.

[Mr. Body]

The "tiny guard who has pretty bad defense" is pretty critical though. Not to dig up this can of worms, but the closest comp I can come up with to this is Trae Young, but Trae was a dominant force in college hoops, whereas Dillingham has not been. Yes, completely different situations and I generally don't like to make these kind of comparisons, but I think if 2018 Trae Young were in this draft, he goes #1 overall because he has that elite skill-set you described matched with the production at the college level. For Dillingham, it's still a bit more of a projection.

Trae had a usage rate of 37% in college. That's astounding. He was also a bang-average shooter. Where he shined was getting to the line and generating assists. He still is a good passer, but is very heliocentric. He's also a bystander on defense at best.

Dillingham is a far, far better shooter than Trae has ever been. There's no real comparison. Trae has a reputation for being a great shooter, but he's not. Yes, shooting at a high volume is a threat in itself, but he doesn't make a tremendous amount of them. Dillingham is well behind him in playmaking, but isn't bad. And he at least as improveable defense.

In the end, there are two things here: 1) we can only draft players who are available, and Dillingham has a very strong skillset and, imo, is the most talented player in the draft, and 2) the Spurs likely aren't going that way anyway.

[TrainOfThought5]

I don't know if it's feasible, but I would prefer the Spurs be aggressive, even if it's just to turn #8 into #6 or #7. Someone mentioned any point guard available at 4 will be available at 8, but they're assuming no one trades up to jump the Spurs at 8. If we somehow got Risacher at 4 and the Spurs rest on their laurels assuming Dilly will still be there at 8, everyone in the NBA will expect us to pick Dilly at 8--so if anyone wants him, they'll try to trade into 5-7. Hopefully Brian is too smart to let that happen. Jury's still out on that I think.

this is exactly what’s going to happen. And it’s my worst fear.

[John B]

Can’t wait for timvp top board on this draft.

[rascal]

Are there any great white players in the league who can't shoot?

[baseline bum]

That's my point. If you're not consensus #1 in this draft, you're kind just in a glob of a bunch of other players. I don't think Dillingham is a good enough prospect relative to others for teams like DET, CHA and POR to take him over better fits (which was what we were originally talking about). That's how he drops to 8. If he were a better prospect that those teams absolutely can't pass up, then that same thing would be true of everyone picking 1-4.

I don't think Dillingham's skills are overrated, I think they are appropriately rated, which is why he's not the consensus top pick and is in the grinder with all these other guys. That's the appropriate rating.

I'll push back on that argument with Cade being a guy the Pistons could play at the 2 and LaMelo being a China doll whose injuries the Hornets might want to hedge against. Scoot has looked incredibly disappointing too. I do think Dillingham is more talented than the glob and the only thing keeping him from consensus #1 is his size. I don't think his size is going to scare everyone off in the first half of the lottery though, not when for example Mike Conley has been an effective point guard 17 years at 6 foot nothing 175 lb without needing to be the explosive scorer Trae Young is. Dillingham has a three point shot, he has an in between game, and he can get to the basket, which is more than you can say for any other guard in this draft right now other than maybe Knecht and he's one of the safer bets in this draft IMO.

[scott]

Trae had a usage rate of 37% in college. That's astounding. He was also a bang-average shooter. Where he shined was getting to the line and generating assists. He still is a good passer, but is very heliocentric. He's also a bystander on defense at best.

Dillingham is a far, far better shooter than Trae has ever been. There's no real comparison. Trae has a reputation for being a great shooter, but he's not. Yes, shooting at a high volume is a threat in itself, but he doesn't make a tremendous amount of them. Dillingham is well behind him in playmaking, but isn't bad. And he at least as improveable defense.

In the end, there are two things here: 1) we can only draft players who are available, and Dillingham has a very strong skillset and, imo, is the most talented player in the draft, and 2) the Spurs likely aren't going that way anyway.

Sounds like you think Dillingham is a better prospect and player than 3-time all star, ROY runner-up, all-NBA 3rd team Trae Young. In that case, he should be your clear cut #1 player in a tier by himself. Is he? Why isn't there more consensus on this?

[scott]

I'll push back on that argument with Cade being a guy the Pistons could play at the 2 and LaMelo being a China doll whose injuries the Hornets might want to hedge against. Scoot has looked incredibly disappointing too. I do think Dillingham is more talented than the glob and the only thing keeping him from consensus #1 is his size. I don't think his size is going to scare everyone off in the first half of the lottery though, not when for example Mike Conley has been an effective point guard 17 years at 6 foot nothing 175 lb without needing to be the explosive scorer Trae Young is. Dillingham has a three point shot, he has an in between game, and he can get to the basket, which is more than you can say for any other guard in this draft right now other than maybe Knecht and he's one of the safer bets in this draft IMO.

If you think DET, CHA or POR are threats to take Dilly and he's your top player... then yeah you have to take him.

My opinion on taking the wing at 4 is based on two things:

1) I don't think those teams would take him and
2) he's not my top player, he's just in my top tier (meaning I'll be just as happy getting other players from that tier).

If you don't share those opinions, then yeah - my strategy doesn't work