2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Vienna]

I’ve become a McCain convert of late. Liking him at 7 if we get the TOR pick.

he is not very tall, but big. And it seems as if he is even becoming bigger, as the latest pictures suggest.
https://www.instagram.com/p/C6uNor9S...b2&img_index=1

[PhantomDashCam]

If we somehow get the Toronto pick, I'm looking at various two-player combos to draft, with one player being more of a high upside reach and another as a safer pick.

Isaiah Collier/Dalton Knecht
Jared McCain/Ron Holland
Reed Sheppard/Cody Williams

Just spitballing.

Been thinking about this as well.
Vassell and Tre Jones. Sochan and Branham (and also Blake Wesley). Primo and Weiskamp appears to be the aberration (which obviously didn’t work out).
Different development timelines for prospects based on projected (initial) roles.
Who is the most NBA ready who could step into a role immediately? Based on Spurs needs (which obviously are many), I would think it would have to be Knecht.

The Q I have then would be why would they grab a Corey Kispert-esque player now (who is a year older when drafted) when they could have grabbed one back in 2021? The obvious answer it would seem as the Spurs were hunting for Star/Youth upside then while they have a certified one now.

I think they’ll look to trade one (or possibly both) of the picks.

[BackHome]

I don't know if they could get any value from trying to trade back as no one is really liking this draft. Still have no idea how this draft class goes I am pretty sure that the Draft Combine is where your going to see big movements on mock boards depending on measurements/interviews/shooting.

On a side note the NBA changed in that all invited players to combine will be Required to attend and Participate in the event or will be ineligible to be drafted.

[SpursBills]

any dalton knecht advocates or haters? man, the more video i see of him, the more dog I see in that dude.

Way lower on Knecht than consensus. In general I'm a hater of guys whose main/exclusive appeal consists of "is a bucket", i.e. non-creating non-defending shooting guards, especially older ones who rack up scoring numbers against guys younger and/or physically less developed than they are. Knecht is only 6 months younger than Devin Vassell. He can't create, is a poor defender, has average athleticism by NBA standards, and his impact metrics and advanced stats are terrible for his age and perceived value. What's his role at the next level if he pans out? People constantly complain about Vassell's play this year (for good reason) as a poor-defending poor-creating bucket getter; what are the odds that Knecht gets close to even current Vassell before he reaches his ceiling since he'll turn 24 his rookie year?

If you want an upperclassman and an immediate contributor, give me Devin Carter all day long. A year younger, great defender, great rebounder, plays way bigger than his size, stock generator, better creator, better functional athleticism, better at the rim. Also shot a high volume of 3s at good percentage this year and improved his FT% this year so his shooting is probably not a complete fluke. There's no argument to me to take Knecht higher than Carter.

[Gandalf]

I’ve become a McCain convert of late. Liking him at 7 if we get the TOR pick.

I don’t know anything about him, so I decided to see what player some compared him to. First result: Bryn Forbes.

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jared-mccain/

I hope that one’s not accurate - or that we look anywhere else.

[SpursBills]

For anyone who uses advanced metrics to influence draft evaluations, I've been recently using EvanMiya's BPR more and more in favor of traditional BPM as it not only incorporates box score stats but also play-by-play data. I find that it is a far better metric especially in gauging a prospect's defense which is often skewed in BPM in favor of guys with high stocks and box-score stats in general.

A few observations just by cross-referencing BPR with BPM for this year's prospects:

1. Reed Sheppard is still the real deal. His defensive impact is not as good as his box scores indicate (only 5th among freshmen this year) but his offensive impact is higher than I expected, comparable to Dillingham. 2nd highest overall freshman BPR in the last 10 years after Zion and Chet Holmgren. I don't know if it will translate at the next level, but the guy definitely knows how to impact winning.

The main worries about his size and how it relates to his defense, however, are legitimate. Look at TJ McConnell, who is likely only slightly smaller and an actual elite defender at Arizona but has barely been a neutral defender in the NBA for his entire career. Alternatively, we can also look at the career of Jared Butler, a small guard with excellent advanced metrics, average athleticism, and was the best player for Baylor's national championship team when he was 9 months older than Sheppard who has thus far failed to make any sort of impact in the NBA.

2. Dillingham is still bad at defense, but maybe not as hopeless as his BPM would suggest. He outperforms poor defenders in defensive BPR like Trae Young, Malaki Branham, Collin Sexton, and Cam Thomas, and is not that far behind IQ. He's still bad at defense, is light in the ass, and has poor physical tools, but he may have outs to become just below average as opposed to all-time bad.

3. Stephon Castle was the best freshman perimeter defender this year and one of the best in the country. His offensive numbers may be buoyed by being on a dominant UConn team, but the metrics support what the eye test shows - he was easily UConn's second best defender. Of note, Dan Hurley's teams have been anywhere from terrible to below average at steal generation almost every year despite overall defense being excellent every year, so we can assume that Castle's steal rate is being artificially deflated and concerns about this are overblown. For reference, compare Cam Spencer's steal rates last year at Rutgers (4.0) to this year at UConn (2.7).

[Mr. Body]

Good stuff Bill. Comments on latest posts:

- Same on Knecht. For a guy touted to have a point guard background, he shows none of it. Some fringe playoff team is going to get a pretty good scorer if he hits, but that's it.

- I keep coming around to Dilly's relative defensive improvement. Like, I saw him do this at least twice: Inbounds play, his guy upscreens on a big. Instead of staying home under the basket, he pauses and then races to keep up with his man, who curls out to the perimeter after the screen. Instant dunk because no one covered the big. That's, like, 'what the ' kind of defense. But in time those absurd mistakes went away. I just think he's completely uncoached on defense. The question is what he can actually do once he learns what to do.

- I like the points about Castle's lack of steals. Hurley's defenses are like Pop's, valuing structure and shape rather than gambling. I just don't know if taking him makes sense with Sochan but especially Cissoko, who is like a more chaotic Castle.

[objective]

I suppose that no matter who they draft, I will be on here posting, "They scared now!"

Just sayin

[heyheymymy]

Yikes Shannon Jr with the active rape trial

Not doing the old draft value any favors, prob isn't Spurs material

[Snaq O'Meal]

Way lower on Knecht than consensus. In general I'm a hater of guys whose main/exclusive appeal consists of "is a bucket", i.e. non-creating non-defending shooting guards, especially older ones who rack up scoring numbers against guys younger and/or physically less developed than they are. Knecht is only 6 months younger than Devin Vassell. He can't create, is a poor defender, has average athleticism by NBA standards, and his impact metrics and advanced stats are terrible for his age and perceived value. What's his role at the next level if he pans out? People constantly complain about Vassell's play this year (for good reason) as a poor-defending poor-creating bucket getter; what are the odds that Knecht gets close to even current Vassell before he reaches his ceiling since he'll turn 24 his rookie year?

If you want an upperclassman and an immediate contributor, give me Devin Carter all day long. A year younger, great defender, great rebounder, plays way bigger than his size, stock generator, better creator, better functional athleticism, better at the rim. Also shot a high volume of 3s at good percentage this year and improved his FT% this year so his shooting is probably not a complete fluke. There's no argument to me to take Knecht higher than Carter.

Great points about Carter. He also put up elite numbers against the college team that is closest to an NBA-level team (UConn).

[tbdog]

How come there is no talk about Buzelis? I don't follow prospects, international, or college ball. I just go with scouting reports. I am intrigued what his game has to offer down the line.

[CGD]

How come there is no talk about Buzelis? I don't follow prospects, international, or college ball. I just go with scouting reports. I am intrigued what his game has to offer down the line.

Some of us like him (I have him 2 behind Risacher), but there are legit concerns about his shot and slotting next to Sochan who is also a weak shooter. I suspect that he’ll be one of the guys that benefits most from the combine/personal workouts tho, and end up Top 5.

[rascal]

Good stuff Bill. Comments on latest posts:

- Same on Knecht. For a guy touted to have a point guard background, he shows none of it. Some fringe playoff team is going to get a pretty good scorer if he hits, but that's it.

- I keep coming around to Dilly's relative defensive improvement. Like, I saw him do this at least twice: Inbounds play, his guy upscreens on a big. Instead of staying home under the basket, he pauses and then races to keep up with his man, who curls out to the perimeter after the screen. Instant dunk because no one covered the big. That's, like, 'what the ' kind of defense. But in time those absurd mistakes went away. I just think he's completely uncoached on defense. The question is what he can actually do once he learns what to do.

- I like the points about Castle's lack of steals. Hurley's defenses are like Pop's, valuing structure and shape rather than gambling. I just don't know if taking him makes sense with Sochan but especially Cissoko, who is like a more chaotic Castle.

Sochan isn't good enough to prevent from drafting anyone. Sochan should not be considered a lock to be the future PF for the Spurs with no chance for anyone else to knock him off as a starter.

[onechance87]

Sochan isn't good enough to prevent from drafting anyone. Sochan should not be considered a lock to be the future PF for the Spurs with no chance for anyone else to knock him off as a starter.

yup....jury still out on sochan...Hope this the year he improves to show us something.

[Mr. Body]

How come there is no talk about Buzelis? I don't follow prospects, international, or college ball. I just go with scouting reports. I am intrigued what his game has to offer down the line.

There's been some talk about him and I have him in my clutch of five or so players I like. But he had a bad year at Ignite. His shooting was awful and there are questions of what else he can do. Defense is fairly stiff, if he's a good weak-side shotblocker. He moves well for his size. Doesn't seem to have much playmaking for others. In this draft, he's a pretty good bet.

Him challenging Risacher one-on-one, however, was one of the stupidest things.

[SOMA Spur]

For Buzelis one stat that stood out this year from Ignite was his 39% from right side corner 3 (granted small sample size 12/31). For all the general terrible shooting stats he had this year, I think his form and confidence looked good. It might just be a case of a high schooler getting use to the extended NBA three point line and wonky G League free throw rules (plus Ignite was a dumpster fire in general). If this kid can be a good corner three shooter (and the Spurs can make him a great corner 3 shooter), I'm on board. Plus his vision, handles and improved defense (weak-side shot blacking) for a 6-10 SF seem pretty exciting and an awesome addition to a Wemby centric starting lineup. He's just got to make that friggin' three point shot.

[JPB]

Sochan isn't good enough to prevent from drafting anyone. Sochan should not be considered a lock to be the future PF for the Spurs with no chance for anyone else to knock him off as a starter.

Correct. And tbh, no one is good enough on this team to prevent to do anything.

[JPB]

I do'nt see Buzelis at all as a starter in a winning team either, any team actually. Probably will never be good enough of a shooter and none of his defense or offensive skills are solid enough to compensate. He's aggressive and could dunk on G League defenses, OK.

Sidy is the same age and posted almost the exact same stats as Buzelis in the G league this year. And Sidy is more athletic. So I'm not sure why would the spurs pick Buzelis, specially that high. Huge risk, like most in this draft, he's here because someone has to and his game somehow looks sexy... I can see him ending up as a deception drafted that high. Would Sidy be a top 5 pick this year?

[Knoxxx]

How about COL PG KJ Simpson at 35? 43% 3 PT FG, 19.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.9 APG

Looks like a baller to me.

[BackHome]

There's been some talk about him and I have him in my clutch of five or so players I like. But he had a bad year at Ignite. His shooting was awful and there are questions of what else he can do. Defense is fairly stiff, if he's a good weak-side shotblocker. He moves well for his size. Doesn't seem to have much playmaking for others. In this draft, he's a pretty good bet.

Him challenging Risacher one-on-one, however, was one of the stupidest things.

I have doubts Matas will be able to play the SF slot as his handles are not good and he is much better going in a straight line. I think he will be moved to play PF for what ever teams draft him and that adds issues as he is going to have to gain muscle and one thing I don't like about him is he avoids contact

[scott]

How about COL PG KJ Simpson at 35? 43% 3 PT FG, 19.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.9 APG

Looks like a baller to me.

Along those lines, I like Ajay Mitc , Junior from UC Santa Barbara. 6'5 guard, put up 20pts, 4 ast, 4 reb, 1.2 steals on 39.3% from 3. Bonus: he's Belgian

[tbdog]

Cheers for the Buzelis responses.

[Knoxxx]

Along those lines, I like Ajay Mitc , Junior from UC Santa Barbara. 6'5 guard, put up 20pts, 4 ast, 4 reb, 1.2 steals on 39.3% from 3. Bonus: he's Belgian

He’s been mocking to us at the 48 pick. The tankathon folks are leaving no stone unturned their solution is for us to draft 3 PGs, LOL.

[Bruno]

Along those lines, I like Ajay Mitc , Junior from UC Santa Barbara. 6'5 guard, put up 20pts, 4 ast, 4 reb, 1.2 steals on 39.3% from 3. Bonus: he's Belgian

Ajay Mitc was also Wembanyama's teammate for a few months in 2019/2020 with Nanterre U21 team

[Ariel]

Ajay Mitc was also Wembanyama's teammate for a few months in 2019/2020 with Nanterre U21 team

Dang, really interesting. He's projected to be available where we pick in the 2nd round, really looks like a smart, crafty, well rounded offensive player. Someone who plays at his own pace, can hit the 3, pass, score inside. One of the more interesting 2nd round prospects for the Spurs.