An opposing team's scout sizes up the Spurs
The Spurs have a lot of smart players and they're going to be hungry after being knocked out in the second round last year. What they don't have is a lot of lively young bodies. This roster is overloaded with nine players who are 30 or older. The result might be that they'll sacrifice some regular-season wins in order to keep their guys fresh; I've heard they keep their practices short for that same reason ...
I wouldn't conclude right now that they're too old to win another championship, because Tony Parker is becoming an elite point guard and Manu Ginobili is still as dangerous as ever. But this might be the last chance for complementary guys like Brent Barry, Michael Finley and Robert Horry, because those guys are really getting up there and they can't play forever ...
One of the most interesting things about the Spurs is the way they've transformed their team. No longer are they emphasizing post-ups to their big men; instead they've become a drive-and-kick team that puts pressure on defenses to rotate and keep up with them. Even though they had one of the best big men in Tim Duncan, the Spurs were one of the first teams to realize that big guys were becoming less dominant. The result is that when we try to game-plan San Antonio, we fear Parker and Ginobili 10 times more than we fear Duncan, because the way the rules are structured you can't stop penetration and both of those guys are great drivers. If you stop them, they kick it to any number of guys who are very dangerous from the perimeter. There's nothing more disheartening than a guy driving the ball down your gut, and when you come over with the weakside help, the Spurs are great at finding their teammate going to the basket for the uncontested dunk that just rips your heart out ...
Ginobili looked exhausted to me last year. It's easy to understand when you see him playing internationally during the summer and then you count how many times he has to pick himself up off the ground because of that attacking, flailing style of his. He's like a running back absorbing hits every time he drives to the basket, which is why it's going to be hard for him to have the longevity of a guy like Robert Horry. Because he's such a good shooter, you're forced to come up tight on the perimeter, which invites him to take off around you to the basket. Everybody knows that you need to take away Ginobili's left hand: You hear teams yelling, "Weak! Weak!" to force him to drive with his weak right hand. So you shade him to drive right but then you invariably overplay it and he crosses over to finish with his left. It's like trying to prevent the cutbacks of Barry Sanders -- you know it's coming but sometimes you feel like there's nothing you can do to stop it ...
Parker is still coach Gregg Popovich's whipping boy. I don't know if Pop thinks he's a pretty boy or what, but Pop still rides him hard. The kid is under a lot of pressure, which I think is one reason they hired Chip Engelland as his shooting instructor last year. Pop basically said, "I don't want to deal with it, you deal with it." ...
Parker did get better as a shooter. He's more consistent and confident, and you can tell because he looks like he can knock it down, he doesn't look fearful or hesitant. He still gets a little wild at times and those are the kinds of mistakes that Pop can't stand, but that's a small price to pay for what Parker gives you. He's always attacking in transition, which wears down defending point guards -- he's attacking, attacking, attacking, and you can't help off him because he'll find the open man ...
The Spurs are weaker at center but I can't say that it's going to hurt them a lot. They tried to get younger and more athletic by bringing in Francisco Elson and unproven Jackie Butler. Nazr Mohammed, who left to sign with Detroit, was a much better rebounder than Elson but Francisco is superior at running the floor. I think you'll also find Duncan playing more center than he has in the past as they go smaller around him ...
Duncan is still a great player, don't get me wrong, and if he recovers from the foot problems that limited him last year that will be a big bonus to them. There are some people in the league who feel that the lesser evil is to play Duncan one- on-one than to screw up your rotations and try to double-team Duncan with a smaller defender. I personally don't like the angles of bringing a second big defender to help out ...
They brought in Matt Bonner to begin taking over for Robert Horry. He's a good shooter to complement Duncan and to knock down the shots created by Parker and Ginobili, but one thing that might take Bonner some time to learn is that he'll have to play a more disciplined style. In Toronto he had free rein because that was a bad team that was grateful for whatever he gave them, but in San Antonio he's going to be held accountable for defensive lapses, and for learning a bad shot from a good one ...
Horry still picks-and-pops and makes shots. They have so much variety in the way they can play because so many of their guys -- like Horry -- can play multiple positions. Though Eric Williams has been a small forward in previous stops, I see him focusing in as an undersized 4 -- sort of an older version of Malik Rose, a good defender who will be the kind of hardnosed guy they like in San Antonio ...
On any given night Michael Finley can provide a spark for them and on those nights they're going to burn him until he dies out. He's still a really nice shooter to bring off the bench ...
The impression is out there that Pop hasn't loved Barry, and though it seems like he's had several chances to trade him he hasn't pulled the trigger yet. What Barry gives them is versatility because he can be one of their shooters from the three-point line or he can serve as their backup point guard. They also brought in Jacque Vaughn to compete for backup minutes at the point, but I think ultimately that Beno Udrih will emerge in that role. He disappeared last year behind Nick Van Exel, but Udrih is entering his third year in that system and he's learned the hard way how Pop wants him to play.
Heh. I hope the whole league comes to the same dumb conclusion and decides not to double Duncan. Tim would have his most dominant season ever and win the MVP.
Even though this scout makes a few good points, he come to enough bad conclusions that I'm glad he doesn't work for the Spurs.
Last edited by Mark in Austin; 10-19-2006 at 05:08 PM.
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Some inconsistencies there... but overall a good read...
thats awesomeEverybody knows that you need to take away Ginobili's left hand: You hear teams yelling, "Weak! Weak!" to force him to drive with his weak right hand. So you shade him to drive right but then you invariably overplay it and he crosses over to finish with his left. It's like trying to prevent the cutbacks of Barry Sanders -- you know it's coming but sometimes you feel like there's nothing you can do to stop it ...
If teams are now worried about Tony and Manu and leave Duncan one-on-one, he's gonna be a MVP candidate.
Agreed. Please, NBA, single cover our man Tim and watch him score 35ppg like he did in the playoffs last year.
The fall of the big-man is partly related to the rules changes, but even more the fact that there are very few really good bigs coming out of college these days. What this article forgets is that Duncan may be the best PF of all time, and if he gets a season of single coverage he's going to tear the NBA a new one!
Tim's single covered?
He'll be ... unstoppable.
^^ Same strategy a lot of teams use for dominant players.
Let their number one get everything he wants and stay home on their other options.
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