Reply With Quote
It’s disappointing to hear that Castle grades out as a mid-late first round pick in analytics models. Could that be because he was used as a system player within UConn’s offense (thereby dampening his numbers)?
It’s disappointing to hear that Castle grades out as a mid-late first round pick in analytics models. Could that be because he was used as a system player within UConn’s offense (thereby dampening his numbers)?
I think the Castle being low (ish) in analytic models is die to a few things:
1. Mostly, you assume that there's a relationship between usage% and efficiency. Castle was low usage and middling efficiency, and his strengths don't fit well in an off ball role. He's probably going to be a flat, low efficiency scorer regardless of his role.
2. His defensive strengths are in being a brick house (is this a term in the States. I've never really known) and not being bumped off the ball, rater than event generation that shows up in stats.
I think the Castle case is that there are multiple skills that are close to being good enough to be playable. If he can be a secondary playmaker who's a bit better than he is now or become a midlevel playmaking PG, or a bit better as a shooter, or generate a few more events on defense with the coaching to up his risk taking, or...
He's a solid player if he hits one of those, really good if he hits 2/3, an all star ish player if he hits 3.
Castle and Sochan in a starting lineup can’t work if the other team is able to ignore both players when parked behind the three-point arc. Add Tre Jones in the starting lineup and things would get muddy very fast
Serious question for folks that really want Castle, what kind of player do you expect from him?
I want Risacher but because I expect a Nicolas Batum type player. I'm not really expecting an all-star type player. For Castle to be worth the pick, I think he would need to become a borderline all-star player (a Jrue Holiday type) and I just don't see it, tbh.
Of course- houston likely will pass...because of shooting...
Spurs - who are in dire need of shooters - will grab the non-shooter because?
Watching brick after brick after brick all last season while the opponents hit 3 after three after three from all five people on their team...
and the spurs draft MOAR BRICK-LAYERS!
Exactly.
I would be fine with Castle if he would have shown any kind of sign of being able to develop his shot, but he didn't. He might be like Sochan and shoot a respectable % on low volume someday, but that won't be enough.
Because we have zero point of attack defenders. Jeremy is too slow to keep up with elite guards, noone else is good enough.
Houston has Amen who's exactly the same type of player, was an even better prospect.
Because Spurs also need defense and none of these prospects are projected to be two-way players.Spurs - who are in dire need of shooters - will grab the non-shooter because?
Defenders have a chance of developing a shot, while the likes of Sheppard, Dillingham and Knecht will always be limited with their lack of size or athleticism.
I honestly have no clue what's the better option, it's a really hard decision to make.
I just don't want Topic or Buzelis who are NBA players in theory and have nothing going for them right now.
Risacher won't be there at #4, everyone else is a gamble.
My EYES say:
Dillingham @4
Buzelis (or sheppard or even Knecht) @8
Done
Wemby with two premium shooters along with Sochan and Vassell is a good start and trading away vassell and zollins for another vet will be the cherry on top...
If he develops a 3 point shot he's J-Dub
That jumper is absolutely horrible.
For starters, the mechanics look bad. This is a total rebuild.
The 26% 3pt number is even worse when you look at the tape.
Most of the ones he took are wide open (many without a contest) and he still hit a pathetic percentage.
If the goal is to get guys compatible with Wemby I just don’t see how we take this guy at 4. Maybe at 8.
1) Why would you pick Dillingham at #4? Blazers, Hornets and Pistons aren't taking a 160lbs guard with awful defense, they have their star guards. He'll be there at #8 if he's there at #4.
2) Buzelis can't shoot.
3) Sheppard is an undersized shooting guard.
Castle's still my guy at 4 as of right now. Risacher will be long gone and any prospect we take is going to be a gamble cause it's a draft. Just the way it is unfortunately. Castle at least offers great (and potentially elite) Defense right off the bat and has the size and length to defend 1-3.
I don't see him as a PG personally, despite his claims that he is one and was simply being held back at UCONN due to positional fit (he was ranked as a 5-Star PG coming out of HS, to be fair), so using the #8 pick on someone like Dillingham (if he's available) would be just fine with me. As a matter of fact, those are the 2 guys I want. I think their skill sets compliment each other and both would be a considerable upgrade to what we currently have on the roster. You get a lead scoring Guard in Dilly whose defensive limitations can be somewhat offset by Wemby and Castle, and you get an off-ball wing defender in Castle who, if he improves his 3-point shot, could easily turn out to be one of the best players in this draft down the line.
Last edited by BatManu20; 6 Hours Ago at 09:45 AM.
In this draft, there are two players who combine shooting and defense in any measure, Risacher and Reed Sheppard. But they appear to top out as role players. Too slow, limited handles, limited in defensive upside, etc. I'll leave out Carter for now.
That's it.
Or, you go for a player who is very strong in key categories and believe you can improve what is missing. Someone posted how often players of Castle's skillset hit in the lottery and it's actually pretty high, with results from Kawhi to Oladipo, and the reason, I'd say, is that these guys are good at basketball. Once you get shooting to league average, they are seriously good.
I'm not worried about advanced analytics, whatever those are. I think jesterbobman is absolutely correct. He doesn't have the flash stats that some like. Castle did not get big stocks. (A player who also did not get big stocks: Kawhi.)
The value of Castle's defense is that he's relentless, but very smooth and measured, meaning he regains position without rush. His rotations are extremely fluid, he sees what to do very, very well, and he harasses without being chaotic. He does foul a bit too much, but that's seasoning. Most important, he walls up superbly. He contests with strength, length, tightness, without gambling. In a league where defense is practically illegal, this is really important.
In the end, you have to pick someone in this draft. It's easy to say, "I want a shooter!" and then when that guy is a bad defender. It's easy to say, "I want a defender!" and then whine when their shooting isn't great. Don't you realize nearly everyone in this draft is a questionable shooter? Nearly everyone in the top 10 last year was a questionable shooter.
Get the guy who is good at basketball and whose final skill is shooting. At worst you have a very strong defender who is a great glue guy. If he improves, you've just raised your floor and ceiling at the same time.
It is very unlikely that he ever develops his 3pt shot to that extent. Even if he did, Castle doesn't the handles, nor the pull-up game to become an all-star type player. He basically would need to improve his entire offensive repertoire.
Scouting reports said the same about Jimmy Butler coming out of Marquette. Not saying Castle will become Jimmy, but he at least has the physical tools to become a similar type of player. He's also a high-character kid who reportedly loves the game and really wants to be great, if you believe the scouting reports and his head coach Dan Hurley at UCONN who raves about him. Castle comes across that way in interviews as well. That goes a long way with teams.
Here is DraftExpress' breakdown of Jimmy Butler coming out of Marquette:
Butler has two major obstacles in emerging as a high-level draft prospect. First, he is not a tremendous physical specimen. Built similarly to former Memphis prospect Shawne Williams, Butler is very smooth on the court, using rangy strides to get to the rim. However, he lacks explosiveness, a strong frame, and great lateral quickness. Butler does have a long wingspan and good size for a small forward, the position he's projected to play in the NBA, but scouts will put his athleticism under the microscope as he faces NBA caliber athletes virtually every night in Big East play.
The second obstacle Butler faces in proving his mettle as a prospect revolves around the roles he's played offensively. Spending some time out on the perimeter where he showed remarkable progress as a junior, Butler spent a large portion of his minutes as a sop re acting as the de facto power forward when injuries plagued Marquette's undersized lineup, getting almost half of his touches off of cuts and offensive rebounds. Endearing himself to Williams with his play defensively, efficiency crashing the glass, and knack for finishing opportunities his teammates created for him, Butler branched out considerably last season, but could still use more touches out on the wing to continue refining his budding perimeter game.
Butler's development last season, coupled with his solid basketball IQ and functional, albeit simple ball-handling repertoire allowed him to score effectively in both spot-up and isolation situations last season while not turning the ball over at a high rate. Though Butler's jumper gives him intrigue as a prospect, his ability to get to the basket is what made him such a versatile threat last season. He isn't going to blow by anyone off the dribble, but he's developed his right hand to the point that he can take what defenders give him on the perimeter. He uses his body exceptionally well to shield the ball and exploits his rangy strides to create some good looks for himself around the rim. Able to create easy looks by attacking in one-on-one situations, crashing the glass, or ducking in when his teammates penetrate, Butler shows a knack for capitalizing on his ability to be in the right place at the right time. A very solid finisher despite the fact that he gets his shots blocked by more athletic defenders on occasion, lacks great strength, and seldom plays above the rim, Butler shows good body-control and a good feel for using angles to make plays.
Defensively, Butler shows excellent discipline. Much like Lazar Hayward last season, Butler does an excellent job of staying in position and has excellent fundamentals, but doesn't have the lateral quickness to recover when he's beat. Unlike Hayward, who could use his strength to defend much bigger players in the paint, Butler's best asset is his wingspan. Though he does his best to prevent his man from getting position, his lack of great strength hurts him in the post, but he contests shots well and can make an impact in the passing lanes. His lack of leaping ability limits him as a rebounder, but he gives ample effort cleaning the glass.
Though there is a ton to like about Butler on the college level, he has some work to do on his NBA draft stock. His physical limitations will make his play this season that much more important to his pro-prospects, but if he's able to become a high caliber shooting threat and more dynamic in one-on-one situations, he could garner some attention. A strong candidate for the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, Butler's transition from roleplayer to potential first option will be one to keep an eye on, as he could make a splash if he remains as efficient as he has been.
This sounds a lot like Castle to me tbh. Again, not saying he'll ever reach Jimmy's level, but the upside to do so is there. They're very similar players coming out of college, with almost identical measurables, and using Jimmy as a template for Castle imo makes him very intriguing to teams, especially in a weaker draft. It's easy to see why the Spurs would be interested in him tbh.
As for the workout thing... gaming this out.
If dude truly wants to be a 30% usage PG, he's mistaken. This isn't his future. He's too slow, his vision isn't the greatest.
But I get his point: he doesn't want to exclusively play off-ball watching LaMello or Scoot do everything. Rumor included him thinking about his career. Recognizes, I think, that he taps out as a role player for the first five or six years at least on those teams, mostly forgotten. A defensive specialist only doing a lot of ball watching.
Now, if he means he wants to be LaMello Ball, he's crazy.
But he's not crazy. I don't get that impression. He has a good camp on his side (it seems). He made a very heady decision in picking UConn right before UConn became this "two dominant championship seasons" UConn.
But it's still pretty risky for a semi-marginal point to say he wants to run point. Honestly the most fascinating thing in this draft so far.
Because this boxes out almost every team in the top 10. So... either he's cool with sliding. Which may be true. He really, really hates Tre Jones and Tyus Jones, which may be true. He's signaling to the world what he has to offer. Or he's targeting either the Wizards or the Spurs with or without any promise from their side.
I think, if he legit thinks he's LaMello Ball, that's a problem, because on offense he's not LaMallo Ball. If he legit is cool with sliding to a later team (which ones?), that's pretty fascinating, as he's placing longterm thinking over short term money. And if he's legit targeting the Spurs, that's wild because it's risky.
My gut says that he's going to be absolutely okay with a Spurs system where he can handle the ball a lot, organize up sets, but is far from exclusive in that role, but that his ability to make quick read-and-reacts in a motion offense is what he wants. Or even that he doesn't really want to be a pure PG, but that's trying to avoid going to dodgy situations in Charlotte, etc.
Quit it bro you’re making too much sense. Don’t you realize this is a compe ion to see who can be the most edgy and pessimistic fan on this board?
Dillingham FITS WITH WEMBY better than all other options and that should be the #1 priority imo
why gamble he will be there at 8 if he is the best fit with wemby? Dillingham can shoot lights out, is sneaky fast, wants to be in S.A. and the spurs need a PG now
buzelis - if you watch some film- looks fluid, has size, has great mechanics in his shot, handles are good, and just looks comfortably competent to my eyes
sheppard is a true pure shooter and you cannot teach that
sheppard is needed to offset bricklayers like sochan, zollins, wesley, tre jones, keldon, etc
Last edited by Spurs Homer; 5 Hours Ago at 10:49 AM.
It would only be pessimistic if we had already drafted Castle and we would be here ing about him, tbh.
So far, we are only showing concern about a prospect that might or might not end up being a Spur.
Butler shot 38% from 3 in college.
On less than 1 attempt per game. Castle attempted over 2 as a Freshman, which knocks is percentage. Butler didn't even attempt 3's his first year at Marquette. He didn't start shooting them until his Sop re season and then finally attempted 1.5 per game his Junior year at 35%. All we know is what Castle looked like as a Freshman. He could easily improve the same way Jimmy did over the next 2 years. Even if Castle doesn't ever become a knockdown shooter, he will almost certainly improve enough to become a respectable one in due time. Couple that with his elite Defense and you have a really good player to surround Wemby with.
If he had absolutely no semblance of playmaking nor passing ability, then he'd be a lock to play point for the old man tbh
Not you in particular but I’ve been lurking on this board since high school and the amount of whining and cliff jumping is wild. There’s discourse and there’s acting like an emotional bussy at every decision made by the FO. There’s way more of the latter.It would only be pessimistic if we had already drafted Castle and we would be here ing about him, tbh.
So far, we are only showing concern about a prospect that might or might not end up being a Spur.
The dude reminds me of Jimmy Butler and is a proven winner. Do it RC
There are currently 64 users browsing this thread. (14 members and 50 guests)
Posting Permissions
