2024 NBA Draft Thread

[mo7888]

interestingly the atheltic test numbers of this two are almost identical. Holland jumped slightly higher from one foot (+2.5"), while Cody jumped slightly higher from two feet (+1"). Cody had a slightly better sprint time (3.06 to 3.10), Holland had slightly better shuttle run (2.91 to 2.93).
while I don't see the test numbers as an ultimate proof of the athletic abilities, I see it as an interesting discussion, that the eye test shows one player as a "dynamic athlete", while the other is more of this "fluid athlete", when both might be pretty much the same in the result.
that said, I think Cody might be a bit underrated in that aspect, because he looks so fluid.
in fact, his sprint time is outstanding for a guy his size and he beat most of the guards in the test.
this combine displayed an above average number of great sprint tests, but with his time of 3.06 cody would have won the sprint test in last years combine, as well as in the year before and going back the last 10 years, he would have been top 3 in 9 times out of 10.

I don't think there's a world where I could take Holland over Williams. They have similar athletic numbers, as you pointed out. One is more powerful and one's a little smoother. One has a broken shot and one doesn't. It's a fairly simple calculation to me .

[SpursBills]

Hey SpursBills, thank you for this very insightful post and the many others you do. Much appreciated. Do you think the complexities of that UConn offense might have hindered Castle's offensive game. They run a complex offense with all various different screens. Castle coming in as a freshman to a team at the highest college level with experienced upper classmen, accepted his role to focus on defense. As the season progressed, his offense seems to have improved. So I'm wondering if Castle coming in as a freshman to the defending national champions playing in a complex offense with experienced teammates might have hindered Castle's offensive production?

I've been wondering this myself, I'm not really sure to be honest. On the one hand, I would think that learning complex sets does take some time to learn and the mental energy required to concentrate on knowing where to be and how to run complex actions may affect your shooting. On the other hand, Castle benefited from the significant gravity of Spencer and Karaban, I think in one of his tournament games that he went off on, he was getting basically wide open looks. So you would think that would actually inflate his numbers a little bit, especially his percentages.

One thing to note about the above list though is that of the 3 guys who ended up good shooters, we see 2 freshmen and a sop re late bloomer, which gives me some hope that he may follow a similar path.

[LeBowen]

We actually don’t need Castle or Topic to be elite. Either of them at league average (36%) is a potent weapon. Supporting players who bring one or two skills to the table need to be elite at one. Like a 3&D guy, you’d want him to shoot over 40% if he isn’t an all D level defender.

We need someone to be elite. You're not getting anywhere if you don't have a couple of elite 3pt shooters.
With the way the game is played today, we also need some ballhandlers that need to be chased over screens in PNR. That would be a cheat code in combination with Wemby's verticality.

[exstatic]

I mean, I think in Luka's case most NBA coaches would disagree with you, but you do you I guess?

If you close out hard, he’s by you, and wreaking havoc in a 5 on 4 where you know he’s finding someone for a dunk. Or, you can close soft and let him put up that .315 three pointer. I mean, even Luka knew the gig was up, and he worked very hard to improve his 3 bomb. I think you have to be somewhere in the vicinity of league average to have volumetric gravity, and he is that, now.

[bluebellmaniac]

interestingly the atheltic test numbers of this two are almost identical. Holland jumped slightly higher from one foot (+2.5"), while Cody jumped slightly higher from two feet (+1"). Cody had a slightly better sprint time (3.06 to 3.10), Holland had slightly better shuttle run (2.91 to 2.93).
while I don't see the test numbers as an ultimate proof of the athletic abilities, I see it as an interesting discussion, that the eye test shows one player as a "dynamic athlete", while the other is more of this "fluid athlete", when both might be pretty much the same in the result.
that said, I think Cody might be a bit underrated in that aspect, because he looks so fluid.
in fact, his sprint time is outstanding for a guy his size and he beat most of the guards in the test.
this combine displayed an above average number of great sprint tests, but with his time of 3.06 cody would have won the sprint test in last years combine, as well as in the year before and going back the last 10 years, he would have been top 3 in 9 times out of 10.

Capitalisation is your friend, use it.

Oh my eyes!!!

[SpursBills]

If you close out hard, he’s by you, and wreaking havoc in a 5 on 4 where you know he’s finding someone for a dunk. Or, you can close soft and let him put up that .315 three pointer. I mean, even Luka knew the gig was up, and he worked very hard to improve his 3 bomb. I think you have to be somewhere in the vicinity of league average to have volumetric gravity, and he is that, now.

I would argue that in Luka's case, his offensive playmaking and ability to function as a hub his first two years would be significantly diminished if he was shooting 32% on 2 3's a game as opposed to 7-8 a game.

[John B]

If you close out hard, he’s by you, and wreaking havoc in a 5 on 4 where you know he’s finding someone for a dunk. Or, you can close soft and let him put up that .315 three pointer. I mean, even Luka knew the gig was up, and he worked very hard to improve his 3 bomb. I think you have to be somewhere in the vicinity of league average to have volumetric gravity, and he is that, now.

I never thought he’d co-exist with another ball-hog, but Kyrie seems enjoying the wins when they work together. And both can take over games and willing passers. It’s choosing your poison really

[spursparker9]

[exstatic]

I never thought he’d co-exist with another ball-hog, but Kyrie seems enjoying the wins when they work together. And both can take over games and willing passers. It’s choosing your poison really

Kyrie normally has a calm year or two wherever he goes before his freaky brain shorts out and he moves on. I do agree they’re working together well at this time.

[BatManu20]

I’m still back and forth on the 4th pick, I’m leaning Castle or Dillingham. At 8 I’m starting to become pretty firm on drafting Tidjane Salaun, a lot of upside and honestly has played solid as of late.

Salaun's defense is horrible apparently. Some NBA twitter guy posted a video discussing it. Aside from his rawness and low FG%, that's his big bugaboo apparently. He can't defend.

[Spursfanfromafar]

I found an interesting comparison for Castle......DeMar ReRozan. at least regarding their measurements. but there might be some more similarities.

DD: height w/o shoes: 6'5.5", wingspan: 6'9", reach: 8'6.5", weight: 211 lbs.
SC: height w/o shoes: 6'5.5", wingspan: 6'9", reach 8'6.0", weight: 210 lbs.

test number are pretty similar as well (Castle is faster than DD was) 38.5"/37.0", 29"/28.5", 3.31sec/3.19sec
college stats are close in many categories.

so, Castle looks a bit like a twin brother of DeRozan. if Castle can't improve his 3pt shot, will he become another DD? (hopefully with better defense)

DeRozan plays a brand of basketball that is not winning in today's NBA. But he lifts the floor of his team significantly, because of his efficient midrange shooting, decent playmaking and clutch performance. And while he is a net minus on defense, he has adjusted better in the PF role ..something that he started to take on during the Spurs days.

A quick look at Castle's numbers show that his midrange shooting is not that great either. If he doesn't improve upon that, there is no comparison with DeRozan, no matter the physical similarity.

I just hope he doesn't turn out to be like Anthony Black or Markelle Fultz who have poor 3 Pt percentages, ranges and abilities.

[BatManu20]

I don't think there's a world where I could take Holland over Williams. They have similar athletic numbers, as you pointed out. One is more powerful and one's a little smoother. One has a broken shot and one doesn't. It's a fairly simple calculation to me .

Williams is also a high-character kid, which the Spurs obviously put a lot of stock into. Holland's character has reportedly been brought into question by scouts. That alone would give Williams the nod in any hypothetical scenario between the two imo.

[exstatic]

DeRozan plays a brand of basketball that is not winning in today's NBA. But he lifts the floor of his team significantly, because of his efficient midrange shooting, decent playmaking and clutch performance. And while is a net minus on defense, he has adjusted better in the PF role ..something that he started to take on during the Spurs days.

A quick look at his numbers show that his midrange shooting is not that great either. If he doesn't improve upon that, there is no comparison with DeRozan, no matter the physical similarity.

I just hope he doesn't turn out to be like Anthony Black or Markelle Fultz who have poor 3 Pt percentages, ranges and abilities.

Anthony Black has had one year in the league, and didn’t do too badly for trying to develop on a playoff team. He hasn’t turned out to be anything yet, because he’s 20 years old. He also shot 39% from 3 on about 3 attempts per game, covering 17 minutes.

[BacktoBasics]

Anthony Black has had one year in the league, and didn’t do too badly for trying to develop on a playoff team. He hasn’t turned out to be anything yet, because he’s 20 years old. He also shot 39% from 3 on about 3 attempts per game, covering 17 minutes.

Yeah it’s way too early to criticize Black. He played well in limited minutes and generally spent the year learning and watching.

If you talk to Orlando fans they are still very high on him and don’t in any way look at him as a bust. It was a developmental year in their eyes and they believe he’ll garner more legitimate minutes if they move on from Fultz.

[rascal]

Hey SpursBills, thank you for this very insightful post and the many others you do. Much appreciated. Do you think the complexities of that UConn offense might have hindered Castle's offensive game. They run a complex offense with all various different screens. Castle coming in as a freshman to a team at the highest college level with experienced upper classmen, accepted his role to focus on defense. As the season progressed, his offense seems to have improved. So I'm wondering if Castle coming in as a freshman to the defending national champions playing in a complex offense with experienced teammates might have hindered Castle's offensive production?

This plus Castle was injured early in the season and started off slowly.

[Mnky]

also very quick and athletic. If we need something at the 1 it's speed and shooting. I'd prefer them trading down rather than picking him at 8.

He's sneaky athletic too. He tied with the highest vertical standing and approach. He also had one of the best agility times. I didn't even realize he was that athletic watching him. He definitely checks a lot of boxes. Watching him block a 6'10 dude trying to post him let me know all I had to on his mentality. I'm high on him.

[Knoxxx]

I would like to add Edey, but I am too greedy to give up either of our top 8 picks.

[Pauleta14]

Castle, Topic, Holland and Buzelis have all shoot about the same 3 pointers this year.

Their 3 point shot stats this year:
Castle: 20/78 (25.6%)
Topic: 21/73 (28.8%)
Holland: 23//92 (25%)
Buzelis: 29/106 (27.4%)

Holland and Buzelis were playing with the farther NBA 3 point line.

You can make a case for a player by saying that he shots well free throws or that his shooting mechanics looks good or could easily be fixed but these are kinda week arguments to me. Teams that draft them will only know if their shot can be fixed after weeks/months of practice. These players are even more of a gamble than other draft prospect because of that.

Theses % should be put in perspective imo

At least for Castle. I read an article posted here a cple days ago explaining that Castle overall 3pts% were heavily impacted by a very bad start. his last couple months he shot 40% and 35%

No idea about the others but there could be another similar case

If you take away Wemby's 1st month, his 3pts % would be close to elite already